Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud looked the part of a franchise QB in 2023, walking away with the Rookie of the Year Award and impressing every step of the way.
It’s not uncommon to see some regression in the early stages of a career, even for future stars, and Stroud was certainly subjected to that during an underwhelming sophomore campaign.
But should we be thankful that last season happened and drove down the asking price ahead of 2025?
C.J. Stroud’s Fantasy Outlook
In 2024, Stroud had two weekly finishes better than QB12, and they both came in September. Not only is that the least impactful time to have them, they fill you with confidence and convince you to hold onto him as your locked-in QB1 longer than you should have.
I’d argue that his best performances a season ago were actually an overall drain on your fantasy success.
He burned you last year, I get it. I was a part of it too. But if we hold grudges year-over-year, we miss out on buying opportunities, and I don’t want that to be the case.
CJ Stroud sunk from 18.3 fantasy ppg as a rookie in 2023 to just 12.9 in 2024. Lot of blame on the scheme, OL, WR injuries.#Texans have since given him:
* New OC (Nick Caley replaces Bobby Slowik)
* New left tackle (Cam Robinson replaces Laremy Tunsil)
* New guard (Laken…— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) April 26, 2025
Let’s not forget just how special Stroud was as a rookie. The list of quarterbacks this millennium to post a season with 4,000 passing yards and at least a four-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio before turning 24 is short.
To be honest, it’s not even really a list. It’s Patrick Mahomes (2018 and 2019) and Stroud (2023). That sort of thing doesn’t happen by accident, and while I’m not projecting him to be what Mahomes was in his third season as a starter (4,740 yards and 38 touchdowns), it’s important to remember the potential in this profile.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Something else that shouldn’t be overlooked is that the Texans are clearly sold on their window to win being now with Stroud on his rookie deal. They addressed the offense with each of their first three picks in April (two receivers and a raw offensive tackle who figures to develop exponentially) and rolled the dice on Nick Chubb as a free agent add.
Maybe you don’t view any of the incoming players as game-breakers in 2025, but with Joe Mixon and Nico Collins already in the mix, adding supporting pieces has this offense sitting as the type that can break out in a meaningful way this season and vault Stroud back into the top 10 at the position.
Regardless of what you think of Stroud and his value today, there’s a real chance that, come December, he’s deciding fantasy leagues. It should go without saying that, in today’s NFL, defenses that struggle to generate pressure without bringing the blitz are vulnerable in a significant way.
That tracks, right? I’m just putting numbers to something your logical football brain would land on as accurate.
Texans’ Opponents Weeks 15-17, Pressure Rates When Not Blitzing in 2024
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- Vs. Cardinals: 28.3% (rank: 26th)
- Vs. Raiders: 29% (rank: 25th)
- At Chargers: 29.8% (rank: 23rd)
That’s a pretty nice run out at the perfect time for fantasy managers, and that only gets amplified when you consider that it’s likely that none of those games have weather concerns tied to them.
Drafting Stroud this season doesn’t require a significant investment, and that end-of-season run has me prioritizing him over the Jordan Loves of the world. Drake Maye is getting a lot of buzz and flying off the board earlier each passing week, but his playoff schedule is no picnic.
Heck, if you draft Josh Allen and want to buy some insurance, why not? The Bills could face motivation issues as the season goes on, and they have to navigate three weather games as they face the Patriots, Browns, and Eagles during the fantasy postseason.
It’s food for thought.
Cameron Sheath’s C.J. Stroud Fantasy Projection
C.J. Stroud’s remarkable start to life in the NFL has seen him overrated at times in fantasy. Despite his outstanding arm talent and clutch composure, the former Ohio State quarterback has been more of a floor play than a league winner.Â
The player’s preference to play from the pocket limits his upside, while a disappointing showing from the Texans’ offense saw his fantasy production drop considerably in 2024. Stroud was almost ever-present in 2024, but his 14.2 average fantasy points per game from Weeks 1-17 was tied with Daniel Jones for 25th among QBs (minimum eight games).
That’s a worrying statistic for Stroud’s fantasy outlook. Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence, Drake Maye, and several others all outproduced Stroud on a per-game basis but finished behind him after missing time.
The Texans’ offense was a mess in 2024, though, as several key injuries and poor coaching severely limited production. WR Stefon Diggs is now in New England, while WR Tank Dell is unlikely to return from injury in time to play a significant role. Nick Caley has replaced former offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, as head coach DeMeco Ryans looks to avoid a repeat performance in 2025.
Nico Collins looks set to resume his role as the team’s primary receiving option, while rookie WRs Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel join TE Dalton Schultz in supporting roles. Stroud can repeat his QB11 finish from 2023, but is more likely a safe, middling QB2 this coming year.
