The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Tampa Bay Buccaneers players heading into their matchup with the Carolina Panthers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Baker Mayfield, QB
Baker Mayfield has thrown a pick in four straight outings, struggling with consistency for the better part of the past two months.
His first interception in Miami last week was a decent decision, just not well executed, and that’s been the story of late: bits and pieces of positive developments that crippling errors have undone.
I think he’s going to be my guilty pleasure in 2026 when I wait to address the position.
In the first half, 55.2% of his yards went to Jalen McMillan, a connection I wasn’t banking on. The Bucs have a plethora of options for him to take advantage of, and we’ve seen him put up monster passing numbers in the past.
Heck, he did it early this season.
From the beginning of 2023 through the end of 2024, he was good for roughly 4,300 yards and 35 passing scores. Why can’t we see that in 2026 with above-average rushing production?
I think we can.
There’s a real chance that he’s a less athletic but more reliable passing version of Caleb Williams, a player who will generate more interest because of his age profile.
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We will see where ADP settles, but I’m anticipating being a Mayfield stan for next season.
Bucky Irving, RB
If anyone sours on Bucky Irving because of 2025, sign me up for buying low.
He’s battled health issues and missed the peak of Baker Mayfield’s play this season: he’s essentially only been active for the worst parts of this Bucs season.
Irving earned a season-high six targets last week, a level of involvement that I’m interested in more than fearing the fact that his 14 touches against the Dolphins gained just 33 yards.
Week 17 Running Back Data
- Irving: 54% snaps, 24 routes, 14 touches (two red zone)
- Rachaad White: 47.6% snaps, 20 routes, 4 touches (one red zone)
- Sean Tucker: 6.3% snaps, 2 routes, 2 touches (one red zone)
I expect White to walk this summer, and if we assume that Irving enters 2026 at full strength, asking for 100 scrimmage yards a week is reasonable. And with a player like him, a double-digit touchdown campaign is never far away.
I have a definitive top-10 at the position for next season, and Irving is a part of that tier.
Rachaad White, RB
Rachaad White had just four touches on 30 snaps last week and will enter his age-27 season as a UFA.
At under four yards per carry for his career and over three catches per game, his skill set has been defined by the NFL through four seasons. He’s not a feature back in any system, but he’s a viable complement in just about every system.
Where he lands will naturally dictate his value, but I think we know what to expect. If he’s a part of an offense like Baltimore, where the lead RB isn’t versatile, there’s a path for standalone PPR value. If he lands behind a Bucky Irving type again, his weekly value is marginal at best, and he’s unlikely to handle a full workload should the starter go down.
White is someone I likely won’t touch in 2026 outside of a perfect scheme fit.
Chris Godwin Jr., WR
Chris Godwin looked like the pre-injury version of himself on Sunday against the Dolphins, catching seven of the eight balls thrown his way for 108 yards and his second touchdown of the season, easily his best performance of the season.
Health is the obvious concern (seven games last season and eight so far this year) as he enters his age-30 season, but the WR core built around him offers more in the way of big play upside than slot competition.
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Godwin is a player to watch this postseason: if all health boxes are checked, he may enter 2026 in the flex conversation. It wasn’t a huge sample, but his red-zone target rate this year is the second-highest of his career. He’s a decent bet to catch a handful of passes or score weekly, and that creates a nice floor that can help stabilize any fantasy team.
Emeka Egbuka, WR
At the beginning of the season, I was certain I’d be fading Emeka Egbuka in 2026. He was scoring weekly, making game-breaking plays every time you flipped on a Bucs game, and earning highly valuable looks with consistency.
I was watching it, and it felt too good to be true. It felt as if he was running pure, and that would bait some people into thinking he was an elite asset from the jump, even with plenty of competition around him for looks.
The idea was that he’d excel through his rookie season, and I’d make the regression case for the encore.
Well, the regression case has come early, and now I find him likely to have a wide range of draft outcomes depending on the specific room.
Weeks 11-17
- John Metchie: 8.6 PPG, 9.9% below expectations, 18.2% target share
- Tre Tucker: 7.0 PPG, 30.8% below expectations, 19.4% target share
- Egbuka: 6.8 PPG, 39.9% below expectations, 22.5% target share
Through the first 10 weeks, Egbuka (16.3 PPG) had him swimming in the same waters as both Cowboy receivers (Pickens was at 17.9 PPG and Lamb 15.1), making this a dramatic fall from grace that I wasn’t prepared for.
Add in the fact that Baker Mayfield was plenty comfortable in targeting Jalen McMillan in big spots over the weekend, and we may be looking at a high pedigree prospect whose value has dipped further than I was anticipating.
I think I’m going to be in?
We will see what the industry does with his asking price, but I still think there is a fantasy WR2 staring us in the face. This is an offense we are going to have a top-10 projection for, and with Mike Evans another year older, it’s easy to pencil in Egbuka as far closer to the version of him that we saw in the first two months than the last two months.
I’ll have him ranked ahead of DeVonta Smith, DK Metcalf, and both receivers in Arizona.
Mike Evans, WR
Unless he hangs 666 yards (talk about an ominous number to need) on the Panthers this weekend, Mike Evans is going to see his historic run of 1,000-yard seasons end at 11.
A remarkable streak that will be remembered for years to come, but one that does nothing for those of us projecting ahead. I was impressed with what I saw from Chris Godwin (7-108-1) against the Dolphins last week, but his success doesn’t work against that of Evans.
Jalen McMillan posting a 7-114-0 line last week caught my eye, and while Emeka Egbuka has been less present for the Bucs than the sun has been here on the East Coast lately, he’s still very much a part of the long-term picture in Tampa Bay.
What is the target ceiling for Evans to open his age-33 season?
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In theory, he could pay off in the way that Davante Adams has this season, but that’s too risky for my liking.
It’s been a fun ride, Mr. Evans, but I step off here. I wish you the best for the remainder of your Hall of Fame career: I’ll be watching from a distance.
Cade Otton, TE
We just don’t know, and for me, that’s enough of an excuse to stream if the opportunity presents itself in 2026, not to prioritize him in any sort of way.
Cade Otton will be a UFA this summer, and he’s been two different players during his time in Tampa Bay: useless when everyone is healthy and irreplaceable when injuries ravage the depth chart.
He’s struggled to earn targets when viable WRs are on the field, and given that most passing games don’t work through the tight end position, I’m prepared to fully avoid Otton, barring him landing in a situation where the cupboard around him is essentially bare.
With 200 catches in 62 career games and no real upside to speak of (under 10 yards per catch for his career and just 10 scores), this is a “unproduction until proven productive” profile.
