The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Tampa Bay Buccaneers players heading into their matchup with the New England Patriots to help you craft a winning lineup.
Baker Mayfield, QB
Baker Mayfield’s stock has dipped after opening the season with six straight games scoring north of 17 fantasy points, as he has totaled just 15.2 total points over the past two (road games against the Lions and Saints).
I’m not overly worried about it, but it is a reminder that, outside of a select few, the range of outcomes is wide at the highest scoring position in the game.
Mayfield doesn’t have a single rushing yard in either one of those tough games and has been held to 15 or fewer in five straight after clearing 30 in each of his first three. He was the fifth-best QB in Weeks 1-5 and has been QB24. It goes without saying that he slots in between those two extremes moving forward and could trend closer to the hot streak by season’s end, should the roster around him get healthy.
For now, this is a shaky profile in a tough matchup. You’re not going to find a better option on the waiver wire, so you’re rolling with Mayfield this week, but you’ll need your skill position players to do the heavy lifting.
Mayfield is hovering around QB10 for me this week.
Rachaad White, RB
Rachaad White is nothing if not consistent.
The role naturally depends on the status of Bucky Irving, but White is the same player whether he gets seven or 17 carries, a 25% snap share or 75%.
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This season, 27.3% of his touches have come in the pass game, and that can be a cheat code in PPR formats when his role is expanded. As good as that side of things is, the rushing numbers are bad.
Rushing Rankings Since 2022 (Minimum 500 Carries)
- 5+ yard gain rate: 27th of 30
- Yards per carry after contact: 28th
- 10+ yard gain rate: 29th of 30
- PFSN Elusive Rating: 29th of 30
The skill set is consistent, but, like following a recipe, results will vary.
White hasn’t been a top-25 RB in either of his past two games, struggles that came on the heels of back-to-back top-10 performances.
I’m comfortable with him assuming the lead role, being slotted as an RB2 in this matchup: the Patriots are as good as it gets against the run, but taking away a weakness isn’t exactly a big deal for me.
You can pencil him in for 10-12 carries and 4-6 targets, a role that is enough for me to hold my nose and click into my lineup.
Emeka Egbuka, WR
A hamstring has slowed down the efficiency of Emeka Egbuka over his past two games (33.3% catch rate with zero touchdowns), but with the bye week to get right, I think you can feel fine about playing him in this tough matchup.
Some will look at his recent box scores, see 16.1 PPR points across two games, and assume some sort of rookie wall is approaching.
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I’m not buying it.
During these “struggles,” he’s earned a 28.4% target share and has just missed on a few chunk plays. Due to all of the injuries on the offensive side of the ball, Egbuka has been tasked with navigating role changes and offensive pivots during his first two months as a pro.
Combine that with defenses now having tape on him, and I think his ability to earn volume at a high level is much more impressive and predictive than the recent underwhelming final lines are concerning.
New England is a strong defense across the board, and Christian Gonzalez looms large, but if they are turned into a one-dimensional unit, I trust the combination of volume and raw talent. It’s very clear that Mayfield is comfortable with this rookie deciding the fate of the drive, and that’s good enough for me.
Cade Otton, TE
Cade Otton is going to be a viable tight end streamer for the remainder of the season.
I don’t think the upside, even with a crippled cast around him, is enough to elevate him above that level. For the season, he has just one end zone target (Week 2) and has more games with single-digit yardage totals than games with 55+.
So no, I don’t think he can get to the “reliable starter” level, but with a 20+ yard catch in four straight and plenty of targets up for grabs with Mike Evans out for the year on top of various other injuries, his floor is higher than the names on your waiver wire.
He’s boring and is unlikely to win you this week or any week. That said, the name of the game for many is to roster a tight end that won’t outright cost them their matchup, and I think Otton checks that box.
