The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Denver Broncos players heading into their matchup with the Houston Texans to help you craft a winning lineup.
Bo Nix, QB
Bo Nix hasn’t exactly looked like a superstar at various points this season, and yet, there are only a few who offer a similar production resume.
His first 20-point game of the season came in Week 2, and since then, from Weeks 2-8, there are only three QBs in the sport with more 20+ point efforts than the leader of the Broncos: Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, and Drake Maye.
In a vacuum, I’d take all three over Nix, but in Year 2, we are seeing the development of a future star.
Again, far from perfect. Sometimes the volume isn’t there (four games with 30 or fewer pass attempts), and sometimes the rushing vanishes (under 2.5 yards per carry three times), but at the end of 60 minutes, you’re more likely than not to be OK with where things finish.
Last week, he took advantage of a cushy matchup against the Cowboys, throwing four touchdowns. The raw number of scores was nice, but I was impressed by the variation: a nice blend of touch, anticipation, and savvy.
Most of his advanced box score is very much in line with what he did last season, though I will highlight his improved approach when attacking downfield. Last season, on 126 deep throws, he was intercepted just as often as he found his man for a touchdown. This season, he’s at a 3.0 TD/INT rate on those spike attempts, something that elevates the ceiling while also raising the floor, as he’s taking what he’s given and not prematurely ending possessions.
This is a tough spot, but I think you can feel comfortable in starting him this week, knowing that he has various avenues to productivity.
J.K. Dobbins, RB
J.K. Dobbins has run for over 75 yards in six of his past seven games, and while the scoring has dried up recently (one TD in five games after scoring in three straight to open the season), he’s as good a bet for 15+ touches as there is, and that creates a nice production floor.
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R.J. Harvey has looked the part when extended, but Sean Payton isn’t giving him more than a handful of opportunities in competitive situations by week.
If Dobbins picks up an injury designation or starts to struggle in a significant way, we can have the committee discussion. I actually think it’s more likely than not that we’ll have that talk at some point.
But not in Week 9.
The Texans have held both Henry and McCaffrey under 10 PPR points over the past month. This defense is as tough as it gets, which means we have to downgrade our expectations of Dobbins, but it’s not enough to knock him out of my top 20.
Pat Bryant, WR
Pat Bryant has yet to reach 25 routes or a 60% snap share in an NFL game, but he got in on the fun last week against Dallas with his first score, a play that served as a good reminder of why we liked this profile in the preseason.
The 24-yard TD was a nice mix of athleticism and awareness: raw ability and grace.
Personally, I think he’s the real deal and a must-get in dynasty situations. When it comes to redraft, I need him to be on the field more before he gets a top 40 ranking from me. The talent isn’t a question in the slightest, but Nix hasn’t been the most consistent QB this season, and you’re playing a thin parlay if you want him to look good during the snaps that Bryant is on the field.
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If he can bump into the 70% range of snaps, we might be onto something. That could happen during the second half of this season, though I’m not expecting it. Keep Bryant rostered for now and hope that his path to playing time clears.
Evan Engram, TE
Evan Engram caught four balls on 15 routes last week against the Cowboys, but this offense was successful in everything it tried against the team in Texas that doesn’t play defense — an unlikely outcome this week.
On the whole, I’m still a touch more optimistic on this profile than the industry seems to be. He’s caught 4+ passes in five straight games, and if he cashed in a catch that ended at the two-yard line last week, we are looking at him differently.
I’m not here to sell you on Engram as a difference-maker. He’s not. I don’t think any Bronco besides Sutton has access to that label. But at this position and given the lack of established target earners in Denver, I have Engram as part of the locked-in weekly starter tier, and that’s an important distinction.