Brian Robinson Jr. had a rapid falling out with the Washington Commanders, resulting in a late-August trade to the San Francisco 49ers. Robinson took over the Commanders lead back role two years ago and looked to be on an upward trajectory. Last season, though, he took a bit of a step back while sharing touches with Austin Ekeler and battling a couple of injuries. What can fantasy football managers expect from Robinson on his new team in 2025?
Should You Draft Brian Robinson Jr. in Fantasy?
Two years ago, Robinson averaged 13.2 fantasy points per game. He was pretty much the same guy he was as a rookie, though. The primary factor in his improved fantasy performance was an unexpectedly efficient season as a receiver.
Robinson’s 8% target share was a big jump from his rookie year. However, it wasn’t the volume that did it. He averaged 10.2 yards per reception, which led all running backs.
When a player only has 36 receptions on a season, his averages can be heavily influenced by a couple of plays. Robinson had two receptions in Week 10 against the Seahawks that went for 51 and 48 yards, respectively. That accounted for 27% of his season total receiving yards. Two plays!
These two plays had an impact on the perception of Robinson heading into the 2024 season. He was viewed as a capable receiver. Now, I’m not saying he has bricks for hands — the man can catch what is thrown to him. But he wasn’t suddenly becoming a running back whose floor was bolstered by receiving.
That was especially more so when the Commanders signed Austin Ekeler, which threw a whole lot of cold water on Robinson’s upside. With a minimal receiver role, Robinson would be heavily reliant on touchdowns.
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The arrival of Jayden Daniels served to increase the overall scoring volume of the Commanders. It also gave Robinson some competition for those short-yardage scores. That, combined with his regression back to a 6% target share and no random splash plays as a receiver (he averaged 8.0 yards per reception), made Robinson more of the guy he was as a rookie.
Robinson averaged 11.4 ppg, finishing as the overall RB28. In 14 games, he wasn’t able to crack 1,000 total yards.
Now in San Francisco, Robinson’s path to standalone value does not exist. 0%. No chance. Not happening.
He’s still draftable because we’ve seen him capable of handling volume on the ground before and he is a touchdown scorer, but you can never start him as long as Christian McCaffrey is healthy.
Brian Robinson Jr. all the way to the 1-yard line!
📺: #WASvsTB on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/EW5OWdxZYp— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024
With this trade so fresh, there is no sense in discussing BRob’s ADP. Suffice it to say it will plummet.
The problem for Robinson is we have no idea if he is the CMC handcuff. My inclination is to believe it will still be Isaac Guerendo. The 49ers traded a sixth round pick for Robinson and they did so with Guerendo nursing a shoulder injury and Jordan James, Patrick Taylor, and Corey Kiner all injured. They needed a body.
I dropped Robinson to RB51, a couple of spots behind Guerendo. Given that he is nothing more than a speculative potential handcuff, I cannot endorse drafting Robinson this season.
Frank Ammirante’s Brian Robinson Jr. Fantasy Projection
Brian Robinson is out of Washington. Undrafted rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt has made major waves in camp, forcing his way on the roster and ascending the depth chart.Â
Third-year back Chris Rodriguez is a power runner who can do a lot of the same things that Robinson can. Add in the fact that Austin Ekeler can make an impact in the passing game, and you have a situation where Robinson no longer fits in this offense.Â
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With the Commanders moving on, Robinson finds himself in a backup role behind one of the league’s preeminent workhorses. With that in mind, Robinson looks like a clear fade here.
