Washington Commanders RB Brian Robinson Jr. took over the lead back role two years ago and looked to be on an upward trajectory. Last season, though, he took a bit of a step back while sharing touches with Austin Ekeler and battling a couple of injuries. What can fantasy football managers expect from Robinson in 2025?
Should You Draft Brian Robinson Jr. in Fantasy?
Two years ago, Robinson averaged 13.2 fantasy points per game. He was pretty much the same guy he was as a rookie, though. The primary factor in his improved fantasy performance was an unexpectedly efficient season as a receiver.
Robinson’s 8% target share was a big jump from his rookie year. However, it wasn’t the volume that did it. He averaged 10.2 yards per reception, which led all running backs.
When a player only has 36 receptions on a season, his averages can be heavily influenced by a couple of plays. Robinson had two receptions in Week 10 against the Seahawks that went for 51 and 48 yards, respectively. That accounted for 27% of his season total receiving yards. Two plays!
These two plays had an impact on the perception of Robinson heading into the 2024 season. He was viewed as a capable receiver. Now, I’m not saying he has bricks for hands — the man can catch what is thrown to him. But he wasn’t suddenly becoming a running back whose floor was bolstered by receiving.
That was especially more so when the Commanders signed Austin Ekeler, which threw a whole lot of cold water on Robinson’s upside. With a minimal receiver role, Robinson would be heavily reliant on touchdowns.
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The arrival of Jayden Daniels served to increase the overall scoring volume of the Commanders. It also gave Robinson some competition for those short-yardage scores. That, combined with his regression back to a 6% target share and no random splash plays as a receiver (he averaged 8.0 yards per reception), made Robinson more of the guy he was as a rookie.
Robinson averaged 11.4 ppg, finishing as the overall RB28. In 14 games, he wasn’t able to crack 1,000 total yards.
So far, I’ve mostly painted a negative outlook on Robinson. The turn is coming.
The Commanders didn’t do anything of note to their backfield. They drafted Jacory Croskey-Merritt in the seventh round. That’s it. We’re looking at a Robinson-Ekeler duo once again.
Brian Robinson Jr. all the way to the 1-yard line!
📺: #WASvsTB on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/EW5OWdxZYp— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024
The difference this year is that Robinson’s ADP is down at RB31. He’s finished above that each of the past two seasons. At that price, for Robinson to fail to meet expectations, he would have to get hurt or lose his job. I don’t see a 30-year-old Ekeler completely taking over this backfield. He doesn’t even want to.
I have Robinson ranked at RB30, right in line with ADP. While I would hesitate to say I am bullish on Robinson, he is a perfectly fine target for fantasy managers who go with Hero or Zero RB builds.
Cameron Sheath’s Brian Robinson Jr. Fantasy Projection
Brian Robinson Jr. has gone from the RB1 in Washington to competing for a backup role in San Francisco. No 49ers running back holds fantasy value while Christian McCaffrey is healthy, though, so Robinson will be on plenty of waiver wires early in the year.
Robinson missed three games last season, finishing as the RB29 in PPR. His form dipped in the second half of the season, though, as his usage became more sporadic. After scoring six touchdowns in his first six games of the season, he scored just two in the following eight.
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San Francisco has been a place where running backs seem to perform when handed an opportunity. Both Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo impressed when filling in for McCaffrey last year, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Robinson do likewise if given a chance.
To get on the field, though, Robinson will require another injury to McCaffrey and will also need to usurp the aforementioned Guerendo, who is arguably more explosive. The second-year back will be looking to build on a strong showing in Year 1, but he heads into the season nursing a shoulder injury of his own.
There is no guarantee that Robinson is even the RB2 in San Francisco, which won’t matter unless McCaffrey goes down. He is best left alone in drafts unless managers are insuring McCaffrey in deeper leagues.
