Breece Hall was a consensus top-three running back ahead of last year’s fantasy football drafts. He did not live to expectations. With offensive changes and an improved offensive line, can Hall return to being elite in 2025, making him one of the better values in fantasy this season?
Should You Draft Breece Hall in Fantasy?
It’s so strange to look at 15.1 fantasy points per game as not just a disappointment, but bordering on being a bust. Yet, that’s what happened with Hall in 2024.
Everything is relative. If your third-round pick posts 15 PPG, you’re most pleased. When it’s the guy you drafted as the overall RB2 or RB3, you wish you had taken someone else.
Hall was trending toward being elite in 2022 before a torn ACL ended his rookie campaign abruptly. He averaged 16.4 PPG through seven contests.
When Hall returned the following season, naturally, he was brought along slowly. But over the latter portion of the season, we started to see the old Hall show up. He wound up averaging 17.1 PPG, including 33.2 PPG over the season’s final three games.
Hall’s performance set the stage for his contention for overall RB1 status in 2024. After all, this was a talented prospect who showed elite traits as a rookie and then started to get those back toward the tail end of his sophomore season. Fantasy managers expected him to build upon them in his third year, pushing 20 PPG or more.
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Instead, Hall took a step back. He became less efficient, which is not necessarily a sticky stat and could be indicative of the offense. However, a full season of Aaron Rodgers should, in theory, be better than the rotation of backup and third-stringers he played with in 2023.
Hall was by no means bad. He was still a mid RB2, finishing as the overall RB17. The problem is that we drafted him to average over 20 PPG.
While Hall’s opportunity share remained the same and his snap share actually increased, his overall volume decreased. The biggest drop off contributing to his decreased output was, ironically, in the same area of his game that saved him from being even worse.
Hall saw a 17% target share in 2023. That dropped to 13.8% in 2024. Yet, Hall led the league in routes run. Unfortunately, his yards per route run dropped from 1.74 to 1.14, contributing to a dip in production. He was essentially surviving on raw volume.
We also saw both Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis mix in for not insignificant touches later in the season. When talking about an elite RB1, unless a player is Jahmyr Gibbs, he needs to dominate touches in his backfield.
#Jets HC Aaron Glenn on Breece Hall and the RB room:
• “I would say that we have three running backs on this team that we’re gonna utilize as much as possible”
• It could be a 1-2-3 punch with the guys we have
• If we can get them all on the field at one time, we’ll do that pic.twitter.com/2d3EvvEjed
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) March 31, 2025
This year, the Jets find themselves with a new look offense once again. Justin Fields takes over as quarterback. As a mobile QB, Fields may not check it down as often. While he does have a 17.9% target share to running backs throughout his career, Fields’ offenses have less total volume due to his rushing.
Fields averaged 26.7 attempts per game in his six starts with the Steelers last season. During the 2022 and 2023 seasons with the Bears, Fields averaged 24.6 attempts per game.
To put that into perspective, Rodgers averaged 34.3 attempts per game last season. The year prior, when Rodgers tore his achilles in Week 1, the Jets’ backups averaged 35.3 attempts per game.
It’s entirely possible that Hall has an outlier efficiency season on the ground. He has the talent to do it. But even if his target share remains elite, it’s hard not to see his receiving numbers taking a hit. He will have to offset that with efficiency and touchdowns, which is not something fantasy managers want to rely on.
Hall’s ADP is overall RB13, but he doesn’t come off the board until the third round. That’s very reasonable for a player with his sort of upside. I completely understand taking a chance on him, especially since he goes in the area of drafts where the wide receivers are rather uninspiring.
I am a bit hesitant on Hall, even though my RB14 ranking is a negligible difference. To be perfectly candid, I don’t know. I see the potential for Hall to simply be the most talented member of this backfield and dominate touches. I also see the potential for this to devolve into a timeshare where he is merely the 1a to Allen’s 1b.
There is a point at which Hall’s upside is worth the risk. But I won’t know where that is until I’m on the clock.
Frank Ammirante’s Breece Hall Fantasy Projection
Breece Hall is a popular target among the fantasy community, as players are excited to take last year’s top-five pick in the third or fourth round. But I’m passing on Hall this year for several reasons.
For one, new head coach Aaron Glenn, former Lions defensive coordinator, seems to be looking to replicate Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery with Hall and Braelon Allen. That means we could see Allen, who has upside as a power back, lead the team in red zone carries.
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While Hall is a great receiver out of the backfield, I’m not hopeful about much volume there with Justin Fields under center. Yes, Fields showed a high checkdown rate while with the Steelers, but that’s outweighed by what should be one of the most run-heavy offenses in the NFL.
So here we have a running back who is likely to lose goal-line carries, playing for one of the lowest-scoring offenses in the NFL. I’d rather wait a round and take James Cook, who plays for an elite offense.
