About midway through his rookie season, Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix started to take off. By the second half, he was an every-week no-doubt fantasy football starter. Now with a full year of experience under his belt, can fantasy managers trust Nix as their QB1?
Should You Draft Bo Nix in Fantasy?
When the Broncos selected Nix as the record-breaking sixth quarterback in the first 12 picks of the 2024 NFL Draft, many fans and media felt it was a forced move. It’s not that Nix wasn’t good enough to be a starter. Instead, the Broncos reached for him because they needed a quarterback. Nevertheless, when you take a QB 12th overall, he kind of has to start given the alternatives.
Nix’s rookie season started pretty slowly —Â the entire first month of Nix’s career was a work in progress. He only threw for 138 yards in his NFL debut, scoring 13.0 fantasy points. From Weeks 1 to 4, Nix averaged 12.3 fantasy points per game. No one looked at him as a fantasy starter, and he was available on most waiver wires.
A switch flipped beginning in Week 5. Not only did Nix instantly become a QB1, but he became an every-week must-start QB1.
For the remainder of the regular season, Nix averaged 21.5 points per game. For context, that trailed only Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.
What makes Nix so valuable is that he’s more mobile than he gets credit for, but doesn’t need to rely on his rushing. In fact, five of Nix’s QB1 weekly performances came in games in which he barely did anything on the ground.
2+ minutes of Bo Nix’s arm beating defenders to windows, working closing MOF windows, working far hash concepts and launching throws downfield. pic.twitter.com/Hgu5BgEATw
— Robby (@Robby_NFL) January 10, 2025
As great as Nix was as a rookie, though, there’s still room for growth. He only earned a C+ grade in PFSN’s QB+ metric. That should improve in his sophomore year. If his play improves, so should his fantasy numbers.
Nix’s ADP is currently QB8. He goes during a part of the draft where I do not like to take quarterbacks. My general philosophy is to pay up for an elite producer or to try to find this year’s Jayden Daniels late.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
With that said, in the process of researching Nix for this very article, I’ve realized that maybe Nix should be the guy I want. He was an elite QB1 beginning in October of his rookie year. Now, he’s another year more experienced and has at least been given a moderate upgrade in weapons with the team adding Evan Engram and drafting Pat Bryant. It’s not much, but it’s an improvement over last year.
I’m not saying you need to go out of your way to draft Nix. Just bear in mind Nix typically goes 3-4 rounds after Jalen Hurts, a guy he was just as good as from Week 5 onward.
Cameron Sheath’s Bo Nix Fantasy Projection
Bo Nix’s NFL career got off to a slow start, as the quarterback waited until Week 4 to throw his first NFL touchdown. The quarterback took off from that point on, though, and was the QB5 in fantasy points per game from Weeks 5-18.
Normally, I’d include Week 18 for player evaluations, but the Denver Broncos faced a second-string Kansas City Chiefs, blowing them out 38-0. Removing Week 18 puts Nix at QB8 pace from Week 5 onward, which is precisely where he is being drafted this year.
Nix has a lot of hype in fantasy circles after last season, but he has as much room for decline as he does for improvement. The Broncos star is unlikely to challenge the top five quarterbacks, but could easily slide back a few spots in 2025.
However, Nix’s situation improved during the offseason, with new weapons arriving in both the run and pass game. RB RJ Harvey should offer an explosive checkdown weapon for the former Oregon quarterback, while Evan Engram offers reliable hands at tight end.
The Broncos have continuously improved under HC Sean Payton and, having been a complete mess just two years ago, are now Super Bowl dark horses. Significant personnel upgrades and a year of experience behind him should see Nix make good on his ADP in 2025.
