Bijan Robinson is special. That much we know after two seasons in which he has racked up 3,350 yards of offense and 23 touchdowns, looking every bit of those numbers by averaging 4.7 yards per carry and 5.3 yards per touch in the process.
He’s as good as it gets, but will he be THE scoring leader this season? The floor is elevated, and this developing Atlanta Falcons offense gives him the potential to build on his impressive career trajectory.
Does he deserve to be the top overall pick across all formats?
Bijan Robinson’s Fantasy Outlook
The last non-QB to win the MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012 (144.6 scrimmage yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game), and I actually wouldn’t be surprised if Robinson’s year-end numbers were in that neighborhood:
2012 Peterson
- 0.91 fantasy points per touch
- 36.8% of carries gained 5+ yards
- 17.5% of carries gained 10+ yards
2024 Robinson, Weeks 13-18
- 0.92 fantasy points per touch
- 43.8% of carries gained 5+ yards
- 14.6% of carries gained 10+ yards
He’s unlikely to be named the MVP of the NFL because that’s essentially a quarterback award given the direction of this game, but being fantasy’s most valuable early-round option is certainly on the table.
Behind the back, crossover, touchdown! 🙌 pic.twitter.com/Ir4APtKNKR
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) October 9, 2023
I’m as guilty as anyone of diving into the spreadsheets and trying to unearth sleepers on a weekly and annual basis. This is a fun exercise and can result in handsome DFS rewards or sharp lineup decisions, but at the end of the day, we are playing a volume-driven game.
Robinson reached 22 carries in five of six games to close last regular season, and the exception was a 98-yard, two-TD game against the Washington Commanders, not exactly a negative result. That late-season volume should tell you two things: (1) he’s built for the grind of the NFL season, and (2) nothing changed after Michael Penix Jr. took over.
He’s as good a bet as any running back in the league to lead the way in touches, and he’s on the short list of players who are in scoring position every time he gets his hands on the ball. The 365-touch 2024 naturally leaves room for injury concerns, but we are looking at a 23-year-old who has handled significant work in three straight seasons (both professional years and his final at Texas). Workloads like this are a long-term concern for any RB and Robinsin is no exception, but that’s something for dynasty managers to worry about in a few seasons. I see no real reason to worry about fatigue over the next handful of months.
The per-game production projects as well as any player at any position, as we get ready for the 2025 season, and if you needed a nudge beyond his raw talent or the trajectory of this offense, let me sell you on the schedule.
Even the moving pieces in terms of supporting cast are trending in the right direction. Penix’s best football is obviously ahead of him, and this was our 10th-best offensive line a season ago. Robinson has picked up 65.2% of his career rushing yards after contact, leaving room for a video game final stat line should the big men up front take another step forward.
Atlanta focused on defense at the draft, and the more competitive they are on that side of the ball, the more secure Robinson’s hold on my projection as the NFL’s touch leader is.
That’s a scary thought. As a rookie, Robinson was actually a tick worse than expected (-0.8% production relative to NFL RB average with his exact workload) and saw 17.3% of his carries fail to cross the line of scrimmage. In 2024, those flaws were more than rectified (14.9% production over expectation, with only 13.8% of his carries resulting in him being stuffed).
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
No profile is perfect. If you want to poke a hole in the Robinson at 1.01 case, you could point to him averaging just 0.26 yards per route with Penix under center last season (career otherwise: 1.23). That’s obviously an impossibly small sample size and one that doesn’t have me worried in the slightest: I thought I’d mention it in the event that you’re talking with the manager in your league with the top overall selection and trying to cast doubt.
Fantasy football can be a game of mental warfare.
Embrace it.
Robinson is my 1.01 entering the 2025 season, and I feel good about it.
Frank Ammirante’s Bijan Robinson Fantasy Projection
Bijan Robinson is my preferred pick at first overall this year. Here we have a third-year back who was considered one of the best running back prospects in recent memory, right next to Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott.Â
Expect Robinson to remain the focal point of the Falcons’ offense, fresh off a season where he had 304 carries, 61 catches, and 14 touchdowns. In other words, this is everything you want in a stud running back: heavy volume on the ground with a featured role in the passing game and red zone.
We also have to note the quarterback upgrade in Atlanta. While Michael Penix Jr. is a first-year starter, his ability to push the ball downfield should be a huge boost for a lethargic offense that was held back by Kirk Cousins last season. It was clear that Cousins was not himself following the Achilles injury.
With that in mind, we can’t rule out a truly legendary season from Robinson this season. Think 1,700-plus rushing yards, 17-plus touchdowns, and 65-plus catches as firmly within reach.
