Bijan Robinson is special. That much we know after two seasons in which he has racked up 3,350 yards of offense and 23 touchdowns, looking every bit of those numbers by averaging 4.7 yards per carry and 5.3 yards per touch in the process.
He’s as good as it gets, but will he be THE scoring leader this season? The floor is elevated, and this developing Atlanta Falcons offense gives him the potential to build on his impressive career trajectory.
Does he deserve to be the top overall pick across all formats?
Bijan Robinson’s Fantasy Outlook
The last non-QB to win the MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012 (144.6 scrimmage yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game), and I actually wouldn’t be surprised if Robinson’s year-end numbers were in that neighborhood:
2012 Peterson
- 0.91 fantasy points per touch
- 36.8% of carries gained 5+ yards
- 17.5% of carries gained 10+ yards
2024 Robinson, Weeks 13-18
- 0.92 fantasy points per touch
- 43.8% of carries gained 5+ yards
- 14.6% of carries gained 10+ yards
He’s unlikely to be named the MVP of the NFL because that’s essentially a quarterback award given the direction of this game, but being fantasy’s most valuable early-round option is certainly on the table.
Behind the back, crossover, touchdown! 🙌 pic.twitter.com/Ir4APtKNKR
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) October 9, 2023
I’m as guilty as anyone of diving into the spreadsheets and trying to unearth sleepers on a weekly and annual basis. This is a fun exercise and can result in handsome DFS rewards or sharp lineup decisions, but at the end of the day, we are playing a volume-driven game.
Robinson reached 22 carries in five of six games to close last regular season, and the exception was a 98-yard, two-TD game against the Washington Commanders, not exactly a negative result. That late-season volume should tell you two things: (1) he’s built for the grind of the NFL season, and (2) nothing changed after Michael Penix Jr. took over.
He’s as good a bet as any running back in the league to lead the way in touches, and he’s on the short list of players who are in scoring position every time he gets his hands on the ball. The 365-touch 2024 naturally leaves room for injury concerns, but we are looking at a 23-year-old who has handled significant work in three straight seasons (both professional years and his final at Texas). Workloads like this are a long-term concern for any RB and Robinsin is no exception, but that’s something for dynasty managers to worry about in a few seasons. I see no real reason to worry about fatigue over the next handful of months.
The per-game production projects as well as any player at any position, as we get ready for the 2025 season, and if you needed a nudge beyond his raw talent or the trajectory of this offense, let me sell you on the schedule.
Even the moving pieces in terms of supporting cast are trending in the right direction. Penix’s best football is obviously ahead of him, and this was our 10th-best offensive line a season ago. Robinson has picked up 65.2% of his career rushing yards after contact, leaving room for a video game final stat line should the big men up front take another step forward.
Atlanta focused on defense at the draft, and the more competitive they are on that side of the ball, the more secure Robinson’s hold on my projection as the NFL’s touch leader is.
That’s a scary thought. As a rookie, Robinson was actually a tick worse than expected (-0.8% production relative to NFL RB average with his exact workload) and saw 17.3% of his carries fail to cross the line of scrimmage. In 2024, those flaws were more than rectified (14.9% production over expectation, with only 13.8% of his carries resulting in him being stuffed).
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No profile is perfect. If you want to poke a hole in the Robinson at 1.01 case, you could point to him averaging just 0.26 yards per route with Penix under center last season (career otherwise: 1.23). That’s obviously an impossibly small sample size and one that doesn’t have me worried in the slightest: I thought I’d mention it in the event that you’re talking with the manager in your league with the top overall selection and trying to cast doubt.
Fantasy football can be a game of mental warfare.
Embrace it.
Robinson is my 1.01 entering the 2025 season, and I feel good about it.
Dan Fornek’s Bijan Robinson Fantasy Projection
Bijan Robinson was on his way to another good, but not elite, season through the first 11 weeks of the 2024 season. During those 11 games, he averaged 15.2 carries, 4.1 receptions, 103.8 all-purpose yards, and scored seven touchdowns while ranking as the RB6 in PPR scoring (18.3 PPG) and had five top 10 running back weeks.
However, his production jumped to another level after Atlanta’s bye week.
From Weeks 13 to 18, Robinson averaged 22.8 carries, 2.7 receptions, 124.2 all-purpose yards, and scored eight touchdowns. He was the RB3 in fantasy points per game (23.4) with five top-10 finishes in six games. That strong finish propelled him to an RB3 finish in points per game (20.1). Robinson was the focal point of the offense and saw a consistent workload on the group regardless of the game script.
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Robinson enters 2025 heading into his prime as one of the most elusive rushers in the NFL. He’s coming off a season where he was second in rushing success rate (49.3%), third in juke rate (4.8%), and first in yards created (1,392). The Falcons will certainly lean on him as they get Michael Penix Jr. acclimated to the NFL. He also benefits from running behind a strong offensive line, even with Drew Dalman leaving in free agency.
Robinson is a legitimate contender for an RB1 overall finish in 2025 thanks to his dynamism, elusiveness, and strong offensive line. The only thing that can stop him from repeating as a top-five running back is health.
