The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Cincinnati Bengals players heading into their matchup with the Baltimore Ravens to help you craft a winning lineup.
Joe Burrow, QB
Is he ready (toe)? Is he coming back too fast? How much will the Tee Higgins injury factor into all of this?
I’d be lying to you if I said I had all of the answers. Or, really, any of them. We have no way of knowing what this is going to look like in his first game action in over two months against a team that is trending in as positive a direction as they have all season.
Sportsbooks have more knowledge than any of us, and they have this game with an implied total of 52.5 points: I’ll take their word for it. Burrow has cleared 22 fantasy points in seven of 10 career games with a point total of 50+ points, and that’s generally what I’m using as a baseline.
Three of Baltimore’s four highest-pressure rate games have come over the past three weeks, and that is the path where I think this could go sideways. If Burrow is going to show rust, this feels like the right spot, but he is coming off of his best season in terms of pressured numbers (104 passer rating with a 15-to-3 touchdown-to-interception rate).
Your tolerance to take on the risk that comes with Burrow hinges on your alternative option. I’ve got him penciled in as my QB9 this week, just behind the red-hot Jacoby Brissett (769 passing yards over the past two weeks and 44+ passes thrown in three straight) and ahead of the Jared Goff/Bo Nix tier.
Joe Flacco, TE
Joe Flacco was putting up impactful numbers for a month to revitalize the skill position players in this offense. Still, he’s struggled in two difficult matchups (totals over the past two weeks: 382 yards, 54.5% complete, two touchdowns, and two interceptions) and was never going to start over a reasonably healthy Joe Burrow.
This offense is going to need to score moving forward (remaining schedule: Ravens, Bills, Ravens, Dolphins, and Cardinals), and that makes the QB at the top of this depth chart viable should Flacco find himself at the top of this depth chart again.
Chase Brown, RB
No player better symbolizes the 2025 regular season than Chase Brown.
He made a late push during draft season as one of the running backs that could build on late 2024 success and break into first-round value this year, but those hopes were all but dashed during the brutal first weeks of the season.
With a level of professionalism under center, however, that’s changed. Brown has picked up over 100 yards from scrimmage in five straight games and has been able to bust loose for a 20+ yard gain in each of those contests.
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The scoring equity has remained low, however, with Joe Flacco counting on his star receivers to do the heavy lifting in that regard (Brown scored in Week 1 and has scored in just one game since).
I hope that we see that change with Joe Burrow back (11 TDs last season). Even if that doesn’t materialize right away, the 19+ touches that Brown has seen in back-to-back-to-back games should stick.
I’ve got this Baltimore matchup as neutral, and with this game expected to see plenty of scoring drives, Brown carries with him top 10 upside into Week 13.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR
Ja’Marr Chase served his one-game suspension last week as a result of #SpitGate and will be back in the mix this week with Joe Burrow under center.
This is an era of short-term memory, so if last season is too long ago for you, here’s a friendly reminder that Chase won the triple crown last season (127-1708-17) with Burrow under center and that landed him as the consensus 1.01 in August.
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Last season, Cincy’s WR1 had double-digit receptions in both games against Baltimore (totals: 21 catches for 457 yards and five scores). Sure, if you want to tell me that Baltimore’s defense is trending up, I’ll bite, but the level of improvement it would take to make me the least bit nervous on Thanksgiving night is nonexistent.
Chase is a Tier 1 receiver this week ,and you shouldn’t be the least bit worried about either his week off or rust on the side of Burrow.
Tee Higgins, WR
Tee Higgins suffered a concussion late in Sunday’s loss to the Patriots, and with a short work week, he’s not going to be able to pass all of the protocols in time to play the Thanksgiving Day nightcap.
This has been a brutal run out for those who drafted Higgins this season, and sitting out a shootout with the Ravens is simply the latest example. The Joe Burrow injury hurt in a big way early in the season and then he gets a game with competent QB play and no Ja’Marr Chase, only to leave early.
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This is poorly timed, but it can’t be viewed as a surprise. Higgins logged a full season as a rookie, and that’s his only such year on his NFL resume (this will be his 11th missed game over the past three seasons).
Andrei Iosivas led the Bengals in targets (seven) and receiving yards (61) last week, and while that’s not really in play this week, he’s the low-end flex play to consider if injuries are giving you a hard time.
Noah Fant, TE
Before last week, he had gotten a touchdown or a handful of catches from Noah Fant in three of four games, production that doesn’t stand out, but also doesn’t kill you.
That time is over.
Mike Gesicki returned, as expected, from his pectoral injury and dominated the TE usage in a game where Ja’Marr Chase was inactive.
Week 12 Participation
- Gesicki: 26 routes and 6 targets
- Tanner Hudson: 13 routes and 1 target
- Drew Sample: 10 routes and 1 target
- Fant: 7 routes and 1 target
I’m not 100% sure that the tight end role in Cincinnati holds any value moving forward, but I’m confident that if it does, it’s Gesicki’s role and not Fant’s.
