The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Cincinnati Bengals players heading into their matchup with the New England Patriots to help you craft a winning lineup.
Joe Burrow, QB
Joe Burrow (toe) was designated for return on November 10 and has been vocal about Week 13 (Thursday night in Baltimore) being his target return date.
Only time will tell on that front, but he’s getting close, and whether that estimate is spot-on or not, he needs to be rostered in all formats. From that point forward, the Bengals play nothing but elite offenses that can force Cincy into an aggressive script or vulnerable defenses that can be picked apart.
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Asking Burrow to come back and immediately put up MVP numbers is a bit optimistic. Still, we are looking at one of the best pocket passers in the league with two elite receivers and a versatile running back at his disposal.
Joe Flacco managers need to start planning.
Joe Flacco, QB
A month between meetings and, as it turns out, maybe the Flacco film really is as simple as it appears.
The Steelers have been an up-and-down defense this season, but they clearly learned from their first meeting with Flacco and made the adjustments.
Short Passing Profile (under 10 air yards)
- Week 7 vs PIT: 25-of-33 for 216 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT
- Sunday at PIT: 19-of-30 for 125 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT
If the clock didn’t strike midnight on Flacco last week, it’s at serious risk of doing it this weekend against a Patriots team on extended rest.
New England created pressure on one-third of opponent dropbacks when not blitzing in the first seven weeks of the season, a nice rate, but one that has spiked to 39.8% since. Flacco can deal with pressure, but for him to load his top two receivers down with targets, he needs favorable coverage spots, and with extra men circling in the secondary, that’s less likely to happen.
Joe Burrow is targeting next week to return, and I think that’s the next time you start a quarterback with confidence from this team.
Chase Brown, RB
That’s now four straight games with Chase Brown in which he’s either caught 6+ passes or reached double-figure fantasy points with his rushing numbers alone.
There was probably too much damage done prior to Joe Flacco taking over this offense for Brown to fully make good on his ADP. Still, he’s certainly trending in a great direction, and his uptick in the passing game (over 8.5 PPR points scored via the reception in three straight) is what I like him to keep the good times rolling this week.
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Brown led the Bengals in first-half receptions last week, and he has multiple receptions in every game this season. I don’t think you can count on that, but with Ja’Marr Chase suspended and the Patriots yet to allow a running back to pick up 60 yards on the ground, we could see usage that looks something like Week 9 against the Bears (11 carries for 37 yards, eight catches for 75 yards).
When this offense is functional, Brown is a versatile threat who can rip off chunk plays from anywhere. He was held without a red zone touch last week, and if that’s the case again this week, his upside is obviously limited.
I’m not too worried. This isn’t a bulletproof profile, but there are certainly more paths to production than to failure, and that’s all we can really ask for.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR
The lack of judgment to spit on another human being is painful.
The gall to stare into a camera post-game and lie about something that we can all see is on another level.
Ja’Marr Chase will miss this game as a result, and the Bengals’ slim hopes could be dashed in the process. The role has cooled a bit for him (45.8% target share in the first three Joe Flacco starts, 21.4% since), but with multiple red zone targets in five straight games, there’s nothing really to worry about.
The hope is for Joe Burrow to join him on the field next Thursday night in Baltimore in what could be the most fun Thursday night game of the season.
Tee Higgins, WR
We saw Tee Higgins score on Cincinnati’s first drive last weekend, and if they are going to keep this thing tight, as 8.5-point home underdogs, he’ll have to produce early and often.
Thus far, he’s scored on 22.7% of his Joe Flacco receptions, a rate more than double his career mark (10.5%) and unsustainable. This week, however, we won’t be asking it to sustain, as he figures to be loaded up with as many targets as he can handle due to the Ja’Marr Chase suspension.
The New England defense is tough, but good offenses can beat good defenses in today’s NFL, and that is why I’ve got Cincy’s now clear-cut WR1 ranked as a top 10 play at the position this week. There’s always risk in taking on an elite unit like this, but since Week 6, we’ve seen Chris Olave, Drake London, and Emeka Egbuka all leverage their athletic tools to score above their season average against the Pats.
It may not be the prettiest of performances, but I like Higgins to see double-digit targets from an accurate QB in an aggressive script: I’ll take my chances.
Noah Fant, TE
Noah Fant has hauled in 30 of his 34 targets this season, adding a role that is more valuable to the Bengals than to fantasy managers.
Of those looks, only three have come in the end zone and two deep down the field. I’m not sold that the quality outweighs the lack of quantity in this specific instance, especially with Chase Brown beginning to ascend.
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All of the scoring upside resides with three players in Cincinnati, and I don’t expect that to change when Joe Burrow returns (eyeing next week). Fant is on the streaming radar thanks to this offense having upside and a matchup against a defense that figures to make them even more one-dimensional than usual, but he’s far from a must-play.
If I’m rostering TreVeyon Henderson in DFS and looking for a cheap bring-back to counteract the Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins chalk, I could be sold on Fant as a way of filling the annoying TE slot. Outside of that, I’m not too tempted to challenge the Patriots.
