Last year was the first time Baker Mayfield finished as a QB1. He was an elite QB1 and one of the best values in fantasy football. With more offensive weapons and a full commitment from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, should fantasy managers be willing to pay a little more to draft Mayfield in 2025?
Should You Draft Baker Mayfield in Fantasy?
Somehow, Mayfield is still underrated. It’s surprising, especially since fantasy managers usually give No. 1 overall picks a long leash. It’s like people decided he shouldn’t be this good. But why not?
Mayfield went No. 1 overall in 2018 to the previously winless Cleveland Browns. He averaged 17.9 fantasy points per game as a rookie. He did struggle after that, but the promise he showed early didn’t just disappear.
I’m not saying fantasy managers should’ve seen it coming in 2023. But once it happened, there was no reason to doubt it. And in 2024, he backed it up again.
Every Baker Mayfield throw of 20+ air yards from a clean pocket in 2024: pic.twitter.com/FEgXwvZtHj
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) May 16, 2025
Mayfield averaged a career-best 22.5 fantasy points per game. He might not hit that again as pocket passers are overly reliant on touchdowns, which can be subject to variance. However, Mayfield set a career high with 78 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns last season. Even adding an extra 2-2.5 PPG on the ground raises his floor and helps get him closer to the true mobile QBs.
Through the air, Mayfield threw 41 touchdowns last season. It would be one thing if this were an outlier season from an old quarterback, but he’s only 30 years old. There’s no reason to think Mayfield, who continues to receive strong support in his offense, can’t continue to play at a high level for the better part of the next decade. The Bucs just added another talented pass catcher in first-rounder Emeka Egbuka.
While Mayfield is legit, he is no longer the value he was last season. Mayfield’s ADP sits at QB7, which is one spot below where I have him ranked. More importantly, though, it’s right in that range of quarterbacks I don’t like to draft.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Generally, I want to pay up for one of the elites or pay down for a cheap high-upside starter. Mayfield will have big weeks for sure, but will he throw 40 touchdowns again? Even with the rushing he provides, if Mayfield throws 32 touchdowns, which is still a phenomenal season, that puts him around 20 PPG. Those are still good numbers, and we’d all love that from our QB1, but we can get that or close to it with the right late-round QB.
Ultimately, as great as Mayfield is, fantasy managers should not be taking him over the running backs and wide receivers that go around him. It’s nothing against Mayfield as a player, and there’s no issue with Mayfield’s price relative to other quarterbacks. The area of the draft in which you have to take him makes him unlikely to be someone I pursue.
Frank Ammirante’s Baker Mayfield Fantasy Projection
Baker Mayfield is coming off a career year where he threw for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns, finishing as QB3 in fantasy points per game, tied with Joe Burrow. Like the Bengals’ franchise quarterback, Mayfield is a pocket passer who comes at a peak price this season. When targeting Mayfield, you have to ask whether the opportunity cost is worth it.
This player comes at a more reasonable cost than Burrow, going as QB7, but there are still intriguing skill players available here, such as Jayden Higgins and Tyrone Tracy. That means it’s better to target Mayfield if you’re building a Bucs’ stack. Otherwise, you can just wait on the pocket passer archetype, going with players like Dak Prescott later in your draft.
We should also note a couple of changes in the team context with Mayfield. The first is that stud play-caller Liam Coen is now the Jaguars’ head coach. The good news is that the team hired an in-house replacement in Josh Grizzard, but the jury is still out on his performance.
On top of that, stud offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs will likely miss several games early in the year, which could affect the offense. However, first-round wideout Emeka Egbuka should help out this pass-heavy unit, so there’s still hope for another top-seven finish.
Jayden Higgins is an untested rookie.
Seems like you’re trying too hard to devalue Baker, someone who has overcome much adversity in his career to be where he is now.
Tyrone Tracy gets the fumbles.