Last year was the first time Baker Mayfield finished as a QB1. He was an elite QB1 and one of the best values in fantasy football. With more offensive weapons and a full commitment from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, should fantasy managers be willing to pay a little more to draft Mayfield in 2025?
Should You Draft Baker Mayfield in Fantasy?
Somehow, Mayfield is still underrated. It’s surprising, especially since fantasy managers usually give No. 1 overall picks a long leash. It’s like people decided he shouldn’t be this good. But why not?
Mayfield went No. 1 overall in 2018 to the previously winless Cleveland Browns. He averaged 17.9 fantasy points per game as a rookie. He did struggle after that, but the promise he showed early didn’t just disappear.
I’m not saying fantasy managers should’ve seen it coming in 2023. But once it happened, there was no reason to doubt it. And in 2024, he backed it up again.
Every Baker Mayfield throw of 20+ air yards from a clean pocket in 2024: pic.twitter.com/FEgXwvZtHj
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) May 16, 2025
Mayfield averaged a career-best 22.5 fantasy points per game. He might not hit that again as pocket passers are overly reliant on touchdowns, which can be subject to variance. However, Mayfield set a career high with 78 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns last season. Even adding an extra 2-2.5 PPG on the ground raises his floor and helps get him closer to the true mobile QBs.
Through the air, Mayfield threw 41 touchdowns last season. It would be one thing if this were an outlier season from an old quarterback, but he’s only 30 years old. There’s no reason to think Mayfield, who continues to receive strong support in his offense, can’t continue to play at a high level for the better part of the next decade. The Bucs just added another talented pass catcher in first-rounder Emeka Egbuka.
While Mayfield is legit, he is no longer the value he was last season. Mayfield’s ADP sits at QB7, which is one spot below where I have him ranked. More importantly, though, it’s right in that range of quarterbacks I don’t like to draft.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Generally, I want to pay up for one of the elites or pay down for a cheap high-upside starter. Mayfield will have big weeks for sure, but will he throw 40 touchdowns again? Even with the rushing he provides, if Mayfield throws 32 touchdowns, which is still a phenomenal season, that puts him around 20 PPG. Those are still good numbers, and we’d all love that from our QB1, but we can get that or close to it with the right late-round QB.
Ultimately, as great as Mayfield is, fantasy managers should not be taking him over the running backs and wide receivers that go around him. It’s nothing against Mayfield as a player, and there’s no issue with Mayfield’s price relative to other quarterbacks. The area of the draft in which you have to take him makes him unlikely to be someone I pursue.
Dan Fornek’s Baker Mayfield Fantasy Projection
Baker Mayfield was one of the biggest quarterback surprises in 2024. Mayfield finished as the QB4 in fantasy, averaging a career-best 21.5 fantasy points per game. The veteran quarterback set career-highs in pass attempts (570), completion percentage (71.4%), passing yards (4,500), and passing touchdowns (41). Mayfield also added a career-high 378 rushing yards and three touchdowns.
Even more impressively, Mayfield got there despite getting just seven games from Chris Godwin and 14 games from Mike Evans. Mayfield had 10 weeks with at least 20.0 fantasy points per game, including a three-game stretch during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15 to 17) where he averaged 28.3 fantasy points per game.
On the surface, Mayfield is poised to have another big season in 2025. He has the benefit of playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. His top six target earners return to the offense in 2025, and the team also used a first-round pick on Ohio State wide receiver Emeka Egbuka. However, despite all the returning positives, the loss of offensive coordinator Liam Coen looms large, leaving questions about how repeatable his 2024 season can be.
Before 2024, Mayfield had finished as a top 20 quarterback just three times in his career. Expecting Mayfield to replicate a 40+ passing touchdown season seems like a stretch, making him a high-end QB2 with QB1 upside over a top 5 option in 2025.
