The Las Vegas Raiders came into the 2025 offseason with a lot of team needs. Yet, they still spent the No. 6 overall pick on a running back. Ashton Jeanty is the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley and potentially a generational talent. Already saddled with the highest of expectations, is the rookie worth his high price tag in fantasy football drafts.
Should You Draft Ashton Jeanty in Fantasy?
If there is one thing you can be sure of when it comes to Jeanty, there will be someone who says to you, “I can’t take a rookie in the first round.” Now, by no means is Jeanty a lock to live up to average draft position (ADP) expectation. We are, in fact, asking a lot of him by placing a first-round price tag on him. But if you can’t do better than, “He’s a rookie,” then your argument holds no water.
The Raiders certainly aren’t the best offensive environment. They do not project to be a great team, and, ideally, we want our fantasy players to play on good offenses.
But volume is king in fantasy football, and especially at the running back position. Jeanty could not possibly have walked into a more barren running back room. His primary competition for touches is 33-year-old Raheem Mostert. Behind him, the Raiders have Zamir White and Sincere McCormick. In an era where almost every team uses multiple backs, the Raiders will lean heavily on Jeanty.
There is an incoming change in the Raiders’ offensive approach. Under former head coach Antonio Pierce, they wanted to be a run-first team. Unfortunately, their lack of talent prevented this from being the case. As a result, they wound up throwing the ball 58% of the time in neutral game script, the sixth-highest rate in the league.
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It is interesting that in Carroll’s final two years in Seattle, the Seahawks actually were near the top of the league in neutral game script pass rate. However, that was more by force than by choice. If we go back to prime Russell Wilson years like 2018 and 2019, the Seahawks were last (46%) and third-to-last (50%) in neutral game script pass rate.
Perhaps the more important analysis is looking at the team from 2010-2015. Those were Carroll’s first six seasons with the Seahawks. Most relevant is the fact that this was the Marshawn Lynch era.
During this timeframe, the Seahawks had a 48% neutral game script run rate, the second highest in the league. The clear takeaway is that if you give Carroll a workhorse running back, he wants to use him. He has that in Jeanty.
Why not. Here is 64 minutes and 31 seconds of Ashton Jeanty running the football. pic.twitter.com/0W2Fr34AiU
— Boise State Football (@BroncoSportsFB) April 15, 2025
First-round running backs have a very strong track record of success. That’s even more so when we talk about backs selected inside the top eight. The simple fact is that running backs do not go this early in the NFL Draft unless they are pretty much a sure thing.
If we go all the way back to 2006, there were nine running backs selected in the Top 8. Darren McFadden’s 10.1 fantasy points per game is the only one not to reach 14 points per game (PPG). Six of them averaged at least 16.9 PPG.
Jeanty’s ADP is RB6, and he typically goes at the 1/2 turn. I have him ranked as my RB6 (although I’ve flipped him with Christian McCaffrey several times and probably will do it several more) and would confidently select him in that spot.
The only hesitation would be, depending on league specifics, the desire to go with two elite wide receivers instead. But that has nothing to do with Jeanty and everything to do with team structure and draft philosophy. You should have zero concerns about whether Jeanty is capable of performing at the level expected of a first-round running back.
Cameron Sheath’s Ashton Jeanty Fantasy Projection
The success of rookies can be almost impossible to project in fantasy football, given the complete lack of data on the player at the NFL level, let alone on his new team. If there is one player who can be confidently slotted into the “definitely going to be really, really good” category, though, it’s Raiders rookie Ashton Jeanty.
The newest addition to Las Vegas’s ever-improving offense, Jeanty threatens to immediately break into the elite tier of fantasy football running backs. The player’s combination of explosiveness, evasiveness, and contact balance makes him one of the most exciting players in the league this year, rookie or otherwise.
Pete Carroll enjoyed most of his success in Seattle when simply relying on elite players to be elite players (Marshawn Lynch, Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas). Jeanty joins TE Brock Bowers in a Raiders offense that is likely to run through the two young stars, with both set to receive massive workloads in 2025.
Given the Raiders’ lack of exciting options behind Jeanty, the rookie figures to take on a three-down role from the outset. Raheem Mostert has produced stellar fantasy production as recently as 2023 (RB5 overall), but at 33 years old, he is more likely to provide support for Jeanty in Las Vegas.
A dark horse to finish RB1 overall, Jeanty isn’t guaranteed to make good on his RB6 ADP, but it would be a huge disappointment to see him fall out of the top 10.
