On 53 fewer targets, Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is tied with Tyreek Hill for the most receptions (430) since he entered the league in 2021, establishing himself as one of the most productive receivers in the game.
But what’s the ceiling?
Ja’Marr Chase is fresh off of earning a triple crown in a similar situation (a stable pocket passing QB with a strong Robin receiver next to him and a productive running game in support of the aerial assault) – could St. Brown be the skeleton key that unlocks fantasy football championships in 2025?
Should You Draft Amon-Ra St. Brown in Fantasy?
When naming our game’s most consistently impactful fantasy assets, it doesn’t take long to name St. Brown. He’s caught at least 90 balls in all four of his NFL seasons, has only two missed games on his resume, and has seen his touchdown total tick upwards with each passing year.
He doesn’t turn 26 years old until October and is coming off a season that included nine top-15 finishes and a pair of weeks in which he was the highest-scoring receiver in the sport.
.@AllenRobinson has Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams as his number one best wide receiver duo in the NFL next season 👀 pic.twitter.com/po8RpOi6cx
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) July 9, 2025
The word “elite” gets thrown around rather carelessly in analysis these days, but it’s fitting here.
His production relative to expectation continues to move in the right direction (+3.5% in 2022, +16.5% in 2023, and +24.1% in 2024), and while a little additional risk gets introduced into his profile due to the departure of Ben Johnson, what’s the absolute worst case scenario given the connection he has shown with Jared Goff and his ability to win in a hurry (career average depth of target: 7.5 yards)?
Drafting St. Brown in the first round does not ensure you glory come winter. Any championship run requires plenty of situational luck on top of a strong roster, but if we are recapping the season in January and St. Brown is the reason your team didn’t have success, I’d be awfully surprised.
Heck, that would shock me more than if he were the next receiver to make a serious run at Antonio Brown’s NFL record of consecutive contests with at least five catches and 50 receiving yards (35 straight).
Here’s a final fun way to display the greatness of St. Brown.
- WR14 Terry McLaurin: 15.75 PPR points per game
- WR15 Modified St. Brown: 15.41 PPR PPG
- WR16 DeVonta Smith: 15.34 PPR PPG
- WR17 Ladd McConkey: 15.06 PPR PPG
- WR18 Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 14.88
Not bad company, right? Without even knowing what “Modified St. Brown” means, we can agree that being alongside McLaurin during a breakout year and McConkey during a historic rookie run is a strong position to hold.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Last season, 60 receivers averaged over 25 routes per game. It’s a pretty low bar to clear and one that most, if not all, regular fantasy assets at the position in your league will achieve in 2025. The “Modified St. Brown” point total from above is if you averaged out his worst 17 games with over 25 routes run, since the start of 2023.
If you want St. Brown, go get him. “Reaching” for Detroit’s WR1 is impossible, as he won’t be on the board when your second pick comes around.
Cameron Sheath’s Amon-Ra St. Brown Fantasy Projection
Cameron Sheath analysis: Back-to-back WR3 overall finishes haven’t been enough to convince fantasy managers that Amon-Ra St. Brown is a top-tier fantasy receiver. The Detroit star is ultra-reliable but has yet to threaten a WR1 overall finish, something Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and CeeDee Lamb have all achieved.
In the last six seasons, only one player has finished as the WR1 in PPR with fewer than 175 targets. That was Davante Adams in 2020, and he tallied 18 receiving scores that season. St. Brown’s targets topped out at 164 in 2023, while his 12 receiving touchdowns last season marked a career high.
With Ben Johnson now in Chicago, any potential drop-off in the Lions’ offensive production could be outweighed by a more streamlined approach. No more passes to offensive linemen, or trick plays that require star receivers to throw downfield — just Jared Goff putting the ball in the hands of his best playmakers.
St. Brown needs more targets, or a spike touchdown year to become the WR1 overall in fantasy, and this may be the last chance to get that at a discount. If the Lions’ offense falters without Johnson, the two-time All-Pro is reliable enough to maintain a solid fantasy floor, but has the talent to be the WR1 overall if things work out.
