Any time a real-life NFL team buys into a player, fantasy football managers take notice. The Colts threw the bag at Alec Pierce this summer in the hopes that the 6-foot-3 weapon can help an underwhelming passing game take a step forward and thrive down the road.
The price we are being asked to pay isn’t nearly as steep, though it is worth noting that his ranking varies depending on who you ask. Should Pierce be circled on your cheat sheet with the intent to be a round early rather than a round late on Indianapolis’ burner?
Should You Draft Alec Pierce in Fantasy Football?
The Colts lost Michael Pittman this offseason and extended Pierce for four years at $114 million. If you needed a signal pointing to what they think of the former Bearcat, it couldn’t be any clearer: they believe he can be their WR1.
I’d blindly trust a team more than a fantasy analyst because they see him every day of the week, but in terms of game action, that’s a leap of faith for a player with two career double-digit target games in an offense with question marks under center.
The ability has been a bit pigeonholed, but he’s excelled at what has been asked of him. Through 64 career games, Pierce is averaging 18.7 yards per catch, a figure that jumps to 29.5 yards when looking at the average distance of his 17 career scores.
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He’s a 6-foot-3 vertical weapon with great timing on jump balls and the ability to almost box defenders out of angles when looking to knock those deep shots away.
That’s pretty clearly a fantasy-friendly skill, but to what end? We see plenty of receivers spike a few times a year, and that’s great if you decided to roster them in DFS, but in season-long leagues, it typically means swallowing crippling stat lines between the game-breaking efforts.
For the record, I think he can be more than that. The catch radius is there, and the YAC numbers have increased every season. In the right system, this feels like a player who can make the most of an increased opportunity and give us a flex-worthy floor on top of the top-15 upside that he possesses in any given week, thanks to his ability to make the 10-plus-point play.
I’m just not sure this is that situation, not in 2026 at least.
Colts’ QB Play in 2025
- 18th in attempts per game
- 23rd in INT%
- 24th in RZ CMP%
- 24th in TD/INT%
- 29th in TD% on passes thrown past the sticks
I need all of those numbers to come up in a significant way for me to get Pierce inside of my top-40 this season, and we simply have no reason to believe that will be the case with the Colts running back the same QB room as a season ago.
The offseason ankle surgery isn’t expected to slow him down once he returns to action, but it is one more data point to consider if you’re with me and looking elsewhere in this general ADP range.
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We are also talking about a speed-oriented receiver who has a bye week before three road games in four weeks to close the fantasy season. The general idea in drafting Pierce would be that he can work into a valuable role and peak at the right time, but the schedule doesn’t really set up that way.
This is a player I’d wait on before reaching for. If you load up on WR stability early, I’ll give you the green light to take this leap of faith. Outside of that, I think you’re taking on more risk than I’d realistically be comfortable with, even at a reasonable cost.
Pierce’s Dynasty Fantasy Value
The dynasty bet is a better one to make for one reason and one reason only: you’re giving the Colts an extended leash to figure out the QB position. I’m not sure it happens in 2026, but should this team post a third consecutive losing season (their last playoff win came during the COVID postseason), you’d have to think that they’d be on the prowl for some sort of upside under center.
The second that happens, I’d be in on the Pierce profile, and in dynasty leagues, I don’t mind making that bet now at a discount. He’s a long-term stock, and I’m actively looking to get exposure to it in leagues where my best days are beyond 2026.
If I’m managing a win-now team, I don’t hate the idea of shopping Pierce after his first big game this season. Assuming it comes early in the season, this would likely allow you to get a piece that I project better for the rest of the way, even if it means giving up some potential in the age department.
