Should I Draft A.J. Brown? Fantasy Outlook for the Eagles WR in 2025

Entering his age-28 season, is A.J. Brown still to be labeled as a fantasy elite in all formats or is his peak value now in the rearview?

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown battled injuries early, but he scored in three straight games to end the fantasy football season and found paydirt in each of his team’s final two games on their run to a Super Bowl title. He’s been an elite fantasy asset for six seasons now and has high-end upside, but there did seem to be a cap on his target upside last season that most fantasy WR1s don’t have.

Should you still draft Brown as your top option at the position?

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Should You Draft A.J. Brown in Fantasy Football?

Brown is excellent. He posted six top-8 finishes a season ago and now has at least seven touchdown receptions in five of his six seasons in the NFL.

He’s just not for me at the cost.

The case is pretty straightforward. Brown was able to return good value a year ago, but how repeatable is his 33.2% production over expectation (2023: +8.2%)? It’s not a nice-to-have in Philadelphia, it’s a need-to-have.

The receivers in his general tier of non-fantasy alphas but justifiable options to be your first receiver are players like Tee Higgins, Drake London, Davante Adams, and, for some, Nico Collins (I have Collins ranked as a part of the first tier, but I understand that I’m the anomaly and not the norm.

Based on name value alone, I’m guessing that most of you would pencil Brown atop that tier. That could prove accurate; he’s that physically gifted, and this offense lives in scoring position, but I can get around the volume disadvantage.

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The non-Eagle offenses mentioned above all cleared 550 pass attempts in 2024 (even in a down season from C.J. Stroud and a trainwreck performance from Kirk Cousins) while Philadelphia was the first team in two seasons to total under 450 attempts through the air.

  • What if DeVonta Smith takes a step forward?
  • What if this team doesn’t lead the league in time of possession (32:22)?

Brown missed four games last season and was oddly silent to open the postseason (first two games: three catches on 10 targets for 24 yards). In 2023, his first touchdown came in October and his last in November.

Yes, he’s averaged 15.4 yards per catch since coming to Philadelphia and was more than twice as efficient on a yards-per-route basis on third down than Smith when Hurts was under center last year. I don’t think there’s a real question as to who the WR1 in this offense is, but I do think it’s fair to question just how valuable that role is in this era of elite playmakers.

Would you be shocked if talented receivers with quarterbacks on the rise like Ladd McConkey, DJ Moore, or Terry McLaurin proved more valuable this year?

I wouldn’t. In fact, I expect two of those three to cash in on that upside, and if that’s the case, managers with Brown rostered will feel as if they left money on the table when the 2025 season is over.

Mason LeBeau’s A.J. Brown Fantasy Projection

Call me a hater — it’s fine — but I’ll typically avoid AJ Brown at ADP. That was the case until this year, when he now looks far more valuable. For a while, he was near the top competing with CeeDee Lamb, but his ceiling hasn’t been and won’t be as high as any of the elite receivers. That doesn’t mean Brown can’t be incredible, but in this offense, he just struggles with bouts of inconsistency that the other guys don’t. 

That’s just to be nitpicky, which I think is fair when you’re an elite draft pick. After an injury-shortened season, his ADP has dropped to around the late 2nd or early 3rd, a far more reasonable price to pay for him. The fact of the matter is, the Eagles’ offense does not rely on him like other receivers are. That’s a blessing and a curse. When Brown gets hot and the offense is in a flow state, he’s borderline unstoppable. However, if Brown is banged up or they face a strong CB1, the Eagles do not need him to find success. 

Still, Brown’s floor remains incredibly high. He surpassed 1,000 yards last season in 13 games and matched his 2023 touchdown total of seven. If the Eagles can rest Saquon Barkley after an insane season, Brown stands to be the primary beneficiary. While I don’t see his ceiling having much more than his 1,400-plus yard seasons, he could very well have the massive TD season that he hasn’t quite yet. Finally, his ADP sits in a great spot. 

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