Adam Thielen should not be an NFL team’s WR1 at this point in his career. Yet, that’s what he was erroneously asked to do last season. No longer in that role, playing alongside rookie Tetairoa McMillan, can Thielen provide fantasy football managers something useful at a very cheap cost in 2025?
Should You Draft Adam Thielen in Fantasy?
Do you know how many active wide receivers there are over 35 years old? The answer is one. The most amazing part about Thielen is that he’s not just on a roster taking up space like late-career Marcedes Lewis. He’s actually able to contribute still.
Of course, Thielen is not the same high-end receiver he was during his prime in Minnesota. From 2017-2021, Thielen averaged at least 15.0Â fantasy points per game in all but one season (a down 2019 that saw him post 11.4 PPG).
When Thielen’s production fell to 10.6 PPG in 2022, it looked like the beginning of the end. It was his ninth season, and he was 32 years old, at which point we frequently see top receivers start to decline.
Then, in 2023, something strange happened at 33 years old: Thielen bounced back. It didn’t happen randomly, either. A distinct change in Thielen’s usage enabled him to extend his career. As has been the case for many greats before him, Thielen moved into the slot.
Adam Thielen is the oldest active WR in the league. Watch him take care of business last season 💼@athielen19 | @Panthers pic.twitter.com/yV4oXMZYvp
— NFL (@NFL) June 6, 2025
In 2022, Thielen ran 21.5% of his routes from the slot. In 2023, that spiked to 61.4%. He led the league in total routes run from the slot. While Thielen no longer possesses the physical ability to win consistently on the outside, he is still a very smart player with capable hands who knows how to find holes in zone coverage. He averaged 13.6 PPG, making him one of the better values in fantasy in 2023.
Of course, this didn’t shield Thielen from being an afterthought once again in 2024. He was 34 years old. The last time we saw a 34-year-old post an impactful fantasy season was Larry Fitzgerald in 2017, averaging 16.2 PPG.
Credit to Fitz. He was still fantasy relevant at ages 35 and 36, posting 11.5 and 11.5 PPG in 2018 and 2019. In a best-case scenario, that is probably what we’re hoping to see from Thielen this season.
Last year, Thielen averaged 14.0 PPG, finishing as the overall WR27. He spent even more time in the slot, with a 72.8% rate. Even though the fantasy output was better than the previous year, Thielen saw a drop in target share to just 20.2%. However, his yards per route run bumped up to an elite 2.65, fifth in the league.
Thielen may still be good, as long as he’s in this slot role. That makes the arrival of Tetairoa McMillan not necessarily a bad thing.
Of course, increased target competition from talented players is not exactly good. But it’s not as if anyone, including Thielen himself, sees him as an NFL WR1 at this point in his career. Target competition only becomes a problem if it creates a squeeze.
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The Panthers don’t have a clear second option in the passing game behind McMillan. Thielen will compete with Xavier Legette, who I believe to be a bust, and 2024 UDFA Jalen Coker.
Whether Legette or Coker wins the primary Z receiver role (it should be Coker), Thielen’s slot role should be safe. Additionally, the Panthers used 11 personnel 72.6% of the time last season, the fifth-highest rate in the league. Thielen will be on the field plenty.
There is no scenario where Thielen is a league winner in fantasy. But unless this is the year he completely loses his ability to play football, he will probably outperform his WR64 average draft position (ADP).
As a reminder, from Weeks 12-18, Bryce Young posted games of 16.5, 23.6, 13.5, 14.0, 27.1, 16.9, and 36.4 fantasy points. That’s 21 PPG: QB1 numbers. If he does that again, it’s hard to imagine Thielen not at least being a viable WR4/Flex play.
I have Thielen ranked as my WR66, so it’s not like I’m high on him. However, when deciding on players this far down the rankings, the decision becomes far less linear. You don’t just take the highest-ranked guy. You take the player that fits your team’s needs.
If you’ve drafted a volatile roster and need something safe, Thielen could be your guy. He will almost certainly outperform younger, less-proven guys ranked above him. They’re above him, though, because they offer a higher upside than a declining 35-year-old. If you need safety, Thielen should have one more year left.
Dan Fornek’s Adam Thielen Fantasy Projection
Adam Thielen was limited to just 10 games in 2024, but still finds ways to stay productive as he gets older. The veteran receiver was having a modest start to the season (12 targets, eight catches, 109 yards and a touchdown) through the first three games before missing eight games with a hamstring injury.
Thielen’s return coincided with Bryce Young’s resurgent play, allowing him to return to his status as a viable fantasy receiver. From Weeks 12 to 18, Thielen caught 40 of 50 targets for 506 yards and four touchdowns while operating out of the slot. The veteran receiver was the WR21 in PPR points per game during that stretch (16.4 PPG) with two top 10 finishes at wide receiver during that time. Thielen was the WR22 in first read rate (28.8%), showing that his route running and ability to find soft spots in the defense were valued by Bryce Young.
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The Panthers’ offense should be better in 2025, but Thielen must also battle to maintain his volume in the passing offense. Second-year players Xavier Legette, Ja’Tavion Sanders, and Jalen Coker could all see a greater role, and 2025 first-round pick Tetairoa McMillan has all the tools and talent to emerge as an alpha receiver as a rookie.
It will be hard to trust Thielen in non-PPR formats in 2025 since he figures to be the safety valve on low aDoT targets. His play style could provide a safe WR4 floor with the potential to be a top-24 receiver if the Panthers are in negative game scripts.
