After many years at the top of his game, Aaron Jones fell off quite a bit last year. Of course, so did the entire Minnesota Vikings offense. Was this the beginning of the end for a once great player? Or can Jones rebound along with the entire offense with someone other than JJ McCarthy at quarterback?
Should You Draft Aaron Jones in Fantasy Football?
Jones is a true Day 3 pick success story. A former fifth-rounder, and a late one at that, it took Jones multiple years to prove he was not a flash in the pan and was better than his draft capital. Even so, the Packers never fully committed to Jones as their feature back. At no point in his Packers career did he ever hit 15 carries per game.
Even with the reduced volume, Jones was always efficient. In Green Bay, Jones never averaged fewer than 4.6 yards per carry. He was over 5.3 ypc four times. Jones is one of the most efficient runners of the last decade. At his peak, he posted seasons of 18.5 and 19.7 fantasy points per game without ever sniffing 300 touches. That was also a long time ago.
Ironically, the first time Jones ever eclipsed 300 touches in a season came during his first year in Minnesota. In 2024, Jones saw a career high 255 carries and added 51 receptions (third most of his career). He averaged 14.2 PPG at age 29. His next season did not go as well.
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It’s admittedly difficult to separate running back production from the overall caliber of the offense. The unquantifiable downgrade from Sam Darnold to McCarthy clearly took everyone down together. It wasn’t just Jones or Justin Jefferson who struggled. Everyone did.
Jones’ 4.2 yards per carry last year represented a career low. His three touchdowns were also the lowest mark of his career. Jones hadn’t averaged below 10.0 PPG since his rookie season. He was at 9.9 PPG last year.
Another concern were the injuries. Jones missed five games. That’s now twice in the past three years he’s missed 5+ games in a season. It is worth noting he played all 17 games in 2024, though.
Jones’ evaded tackles per touch rate was dreadful last season. But it was also quite bad in 2024. He also saw a noticeable decline in yards per route run to 1.14. That was still 17th in the league, but in his younger years, Jones was frequently among the league leaders. Although, again, playing with Aaron Rodgers certainly helped.
There’s no denying Jones is a player in decline. But is that decline substantial enough that he can’t rebound from a disastrous 2025 season largely predicated on the entire offense collapsing? Jones doesn’t need to get back to his 14.2 PPG from 2024. He just needs to fall somewhere in the middle.
Jones’ Redraft Fantasy Football Value
This year, the Vikings’ offensive pieces are largely the same as last year. Jefferson and Jordan Addison will be the top two receivers. T.J. Hockenson is back at tight end. Jauan Jennings replacing Jalen Nailor as the WR3 doesn’t impact much. And nothing meaningful was done to the backfield. It’s still Jones and Jordan Mason leading the way.
Obviously, the most significant change is Kyler Murray at quarterback. Say what you want about Murray, he’s an upgrade on McCarthy. Plus, we should trust Kevin O’Connell to get this team back on track. He was able to make things work with the likes of Nick Mullens, Jaren Hall, and Josh Dobbs. He will be okay with Murray.
If we assume the offense can rebound to some capacity, everyone else should come along with it. What does that mean for Jones? His overall usage was definitely down last season from his usual numbers. But, again, we don’t need him to get back there. In fact, if he sees another 10-12 carries per game along with 3-4 targets a game, that should be enough in an improved offense to give fantasy managers 11-12 PPG.
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Jones’ ADP is outside the top 36 around roughly RB39. Last year, the RB39 averaged about 9.0 PPG. If Jones merely repeats last season, he’ll be a fine pick at cost. Of course, we are not drafting RB4s to be RB4s. We want some sort of upside. It’s fair to say Jones does possess that, though. It’s not overly difficult to see a path to that aforementioned 11-12 PPG.
As much as Mason will likely be the goal line back, Jones scoring 5-6 times is perfectly reasonable. Add in a mild uptick in efficiency and we can easily get him to that scoring range, which puts him in the RB24-30 range. I think we’d all sign for that from our RB4 or RB5.
I have Jones at RB39, right in line with consensus. That far down in rankings, it’s a meaningless distinction, and many of those players are really dealer’s choice. Jones is not the most exciting pick. There are several players around him with more upside. Whether to draft Jones depends on what your team needs.
If you went RB heavy, you don’t need a guy like Jones on your roster. Take a handcuff running back or someone unproven with a wider range of outcomes. But if you’re light at running back, Jones could be a stabilizing option who won’t get you zero that you can get outside the top 36.
Preseason Fantasy RB Rankings
- Bijan Robinson | ATL
- Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
- James Cook III | BUF
- Jonathan Taylor | IND
- Ashton Jeanty | LV
- Christian McCaffrey | SF
- Saquon Barkley | PHI
- Chase Brown | CIN
- De’Von Achane | MIA
- Derrick Henry | BAL
- Kenneth Walker III | KC
- Jeremiyah Love | ARI
- Omarion Hampton | LAC
- Javonte Williams | DAL
- Breece Hall | NYJ
- Kyren Williams | LAR
- D’Andre Swift | CHI
- Travis Etienne Jr. | NO
- Josh Jacobs | GB
- Cam Skattebo | NYG
- David Montgomery | HOU
- Bhayshul Tuten | JAX
- TreVeyon Henderson | NE
- Quinshon Judkins | CLE
- Jaylen Warren | PIT
- Bucky Irving | TB
- Jadarian Price | SEA
- Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
- Chuba Hubbard | CAR
- Kenny Gainwell | TB
- Tony Pollard | TEN
- Jordan Mason | MIN
- Rico Dowdle | PIT
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS
- Blake Corum | LAR
- RJ Harvey | DEN
- Kyle Monangai | CHI
- Rachaad White | WAS
- Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAX
- Zach Charbonnet | SEA
- Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN
- Jonathon Brooks | CAR
- J.K. Dobbins | DEN
- Tyler Allgeier | ARI
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG
- Isiah Pacheco | DET
- Woody Marks | HOU
- Tyjae Spears | TEN
- Nick Singleton | TEN
- Brian Robinson Jr. | ATL
