The 2025 fantasy football season is still several months away, and much will change before draft season is in full swing. However, with NFL free agency mostly complete, the league’s landscape has shifted, making it a good time to update first- and second-round fantasy draft projections.
2025 Fantasy Football Draft First Round
It’s been two months since my last mock draft. If you’re curious how my rankings have changed, check out the previous one-round mock I did after the 2024 regular season ended in January.
1.01) Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Whether to draft a running back or Ja’Marr Chase first depends on your philosophy regarding the position. Wide receivers underwhelmed in 2024, but don’t blame Chase—he was dominant.
The Bengals’ WR1 led all non-quarterbacks with 23.7 fantasy points per game and won the WR triple crown, leading in receptions, yards, and receiving touchdowns. Cincinnati’s defense should improve next year, and Tee Higgins’ return may take some targets away, but Chase remains an elite WR1 with one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
1.02) Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons didn’t take some massive leap forward offensively after moving on from Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder. Yet, Bijan Robinson still managed to prove he was as good as advertised.
Robinson’s opportunity share went from a paltry 52.3% in 2023 to nearly 70% in 2024. Treated like the lead back he is, Robinson averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall RB3. With a full offseason to develop, this offense should be even better during Michael Penix Jr.’s second season. Robinson has 20-touchdown upside in 2025.
1.03) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
David Montgomery is good for Jahmyr Gibbs. We cannot feel confident that Gibbs would make it through an entire season if he touched the ball 400 times. However, if we ever get a full season of Gibbs with an entire backfield to himself, we’re talking 2006 LaDainian Tomlinson-level upside.
I feel confident calling Gibbs the most electric player in the game. In some ways, he reminds me of 2017 Tyreek Hill. We knew Hill didn’t need volume to be a WR1…but what if he got it? We indeed found out, and it was glorious.
In some ways, Gibbs may end up overvalued next year due to Montgomery missing the end of the 2024 season. Fantasy managers are very reactionary, and the last thing we will remember is Gibbs melting faces over the final month of the season.
That said, it’s not as if Gibbs wasn’t still elite with Montgomery. His Week 18 eruption pushed him over 20 fantasy ppg, but he was firmly around 18 with Montgomery. He’s well worth a mid-first-round selection.
1.04) Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
It speaks volumes about Justin Jefferson that “only” averaging 18.7 fantasy ppg feels like a down year. The perennial WR1 caught 103 passes for 1,533 yards and 10 touchdowns.
If anyone is concerned that Jefferson can’t get it done with a de facto rookie QB in JJ McCarthy, gently remind them that Jefferson once averaged 20 ppg with Nick Mullens, Jaren Hall, and Josh Dobbs.
There’s really not much to say about Jefferson. He’s a sure thing with an incredibly high floor and overall WR1 upside.
1.05) Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Did you think the Rams replacing Cooper Kupp with Davante Adams would compel me to lower Puka Nacua at all?
This is Puka’s team. He averaged 18.8 fantasy points per game this season, but that bumps up to 21.8 if you remove the two games he did not finish.
Sure, his absurd 43.6% targets per route run rate will come down with a still-good Adams on the field. But Nacua’s 12.5 yards per reception should tick up, and I’m quite confident he will score more than three times in 2025.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Puka Nacua finished as the overall WR1 in 2025. In fact, I will probably predict it in a future article.
Nacua’s usage was incredible. If you remove the game in which he got hurt and the one when he was ejected, Nacua’s 17-game pace put him on track to earn 200 targets. He’s an elite talent with the perfect QB in the perfect system.
1.06) Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Given how well running backs performed compared to wide receivers and the reactionary nature of fantasy managers, Saquon Barkley will likely get the nod over Chase in several 2025 drafts. It just won’t be unanimous the way Christian McCaffrey was in 2024.
With this ranking, though, I am essentially out on Barkley, at least as things currently stand. I’m okay with that.
Barkley became the ninth running back in NFL history to rush for over 2,000 yards in a season. Despite losing several touchdowns to the Tush Push, Barkley still managed to score 13 on the ground and two more through the air, leading all RBs with 22.2 fantasy points per game.
By no means will Barkley bust, but he only saw an 11.4% target share, which amounted to a career-low 43 targets. If Barkley rushes for 1,700 yards and scores 14 total touchdowns, that’s a fantastic season. It would also see him dip below 20 ppg.
1.07) CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
CeeDee Lamb did not average more fantasy points per game for the first time in his career than the previous season. Of course, that was to be expected after he averaged 23.7 ppg in 2023.
Playing half the season without Dak Prescott and through a sprained shoulder, Lamb still averaged 17.6 ppg. He saw a 27.3% target share was targeted on nearly 30% of his routes run. He’s still an elite WR1.
1.08) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
Before the 2024 season, I described Amon-Ra St. Brown as the safest player in all of fantasy — and that’s exactly what he was.
St. Brown posted 11 games with 18+ fantasy points, which was about his average (18.6 ppg), and mixed in a couple of underwhelming games with two mega explosions.
The 2025 Detroit Lions offense will look much like the 2024 version, which looks much like the 2023 unit. St. Brown epitomizes reliability and is once again a worthy mid-to-late first-round selection.
1.09) Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
Think about everything that worked against Malik Nabers as a rookie.
He caught passes from three different quarterbacks, none of whom are viable NFL starters. Yet, Nabers managed to break the record for rookie receptions (which was subsequently broken by Brock Bowers later that day) despite missing two games and dealing with Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, and Tommy DeVito.
Nabers averaged 18.2 fantasy points per game, leading not only all non-Jayden Daniels rookies but was suitable for overall WR5.
There’s simply no way Nabers’ situation can be worse in 2025. Somehow, I actually think what he just did is close to his floor. I fully expect Nabers to be in the No. 1 overall pick conversation after next season.
1.10) Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
I’m not sure if the fantasy community fully appreciates how good Brian Thomas Jr. was last year. As a rookie, Thomas averaged 16.7 fantasy points per game while catching passes from Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones. He did this on just a 25.5% target share.
The Jaguars have since released Evan Engram and traded Christian Kirk. They will undoubtedly draft a WR, but I don’t really care how high that player is selected. This is Thomas’ WR room. He could and should push a 30% target share this season. And let’s not forget that he is nowhere near as good as he will be at his peak.
Thomas was the quintessential league-winning WR last season, posting 32.5, 28.2, and 32.9 games in the three weeks of the fantasy playoffs. Give me all the BTJ.
1.11) Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
Entering 2024, some wondered if Nico Collins’ 2023 breakout was a fluke — we have our answer.
Collins followed up his excellent 2023 with an even better 2024. The Houston Texans’ WR1 was a clear alpha and C.J. Stroud’s favorite target, having led the team in target share.
Collins averaged 17.55 fantasy ppg in a Texans offense that really took a step back following Stroud’s stellar rookie season. They should bounce back in 2025, which gives Collins 20 points-per-game upside.
1.12) Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Death. Taxes. Derrick Henry.
Simply put, Henry is built differently. That’s why he can do what he’s doing at over 30 years old. No running back over 30 has ever rushed for more yards than Henry’s 1,921, which was second in the NFL behind Barkley.
Henry ran for a league-leading 16 touchdowns (tied with Gibbs and had two more through the air). It’s the third time he’s led the league in rushing touchdowns in his career.
Henry’s efficiency declined over the previous three years but looked fine physically. The reason for the decline was, in fact, the Tennessee Titans’ deplorable offense. This year, Henry was back to averaging over 5.0 yards per carry, even going so far as to set a career-high 5.9.
At this point, I’m willing to go down with the ship on Henry. I will believe he is done when I see it. This Baltimore Ravens offense will not suddenly get worse, and Henry remains an elite RB1.
2025 Fantasy Football Draft Second Round
2.01) De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
2.02) Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
2.03) Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
2.04) Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
2.05) Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers
2.06) Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2.07) A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
2.08) Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
2.09) Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
2.10) Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
2.11) Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
2.12) Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens