It’s that time of year. If you’re reading this, you have your roster pulled up and, even if you don’t want to admit it, you’re wondering “How am I going to mess up this beautiful roster that I put together?”.
We’ve all been there. Don’t worry, I’m a professional.
Well, at the very least, I try hard — really hard. And with that, I present to you my Week 3 fantasy football rankings that have far too much data supporting them to possibly be wrong.
FIND MORE POSITIONAL RANKINGS: QB | RB | WR | TE | K | FLEX
Top 20 Fantasy D/ST Rankings
1) San Francisco 49ers (at LAR)
2) Cleveland Browns (vs. NYG)
3) Kansas City Chiefs (at ATL)
4) Seattle Seahawks (vs. MIA)
5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. DEN)
6) Baltimore Ravens (at DAL)
7) New York Jets (vs. NE)
8) New England Patriots (at NYJ)
9) Chicago Bears (at IND)
10) Buffalo Bills (vs. JAX)
11) Dallas Cowboys (vs. BAL)
12) Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. LAC)
13) Houston Texans (at MIN)
14) Los Angeles Chargers (at PIT)
15) Indianapolis Colts (vs. CHI)
16) Las Vegas Raiders (vs. CAR)
17) New Orleans Saints (vs. PHI)
18) Cincinnati Bengals (vs. WAS)
19) Philadelphia Eagles (at NO)
20) Detroit Lions (at ARI)
Top Sleeper D/ST To Start in Week 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Broncos)
I’m as guilty as anyone of overthinking the D/ST position. Every week, you can find me deep down spreadsheet rabbit holes, trying to uncover a weakness of an offense or a strength of a defense that my competition is unaware of.
Tampa Bay is a 6.5-point favorite this week and that’s roughly where they checked in by my numbers as well, so let’s assume that is an accurate handicap.
.@Buccaneers secondary played amazing defense with the Ball in the air forcing 18 incompletions from Goff; and without the Captain…@AntoineWJr11 Holding the @lions to 16 points is a winning effort. #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/55vc6as87e
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL)
Over the past decade, opponents throw 22.8% more often when trailing than otherwise, and those throws go, on average, 6.4% further down the field.
Is there a quarterback in the league you’d rather have throwing your defense deep passes than Bo Nix? Is there a human on planet Earth you’d rather have doing it? Of qualified QBs this season, these are Nix’s ranks when throwing passes more than five yards downfield:
- 30.6% completion rate (lowest)
- Zero touchdowns (tied for the fewest)
- Four interceptions (tied for the most)
- 12.5 passer rating (lowest)
The Denver Broncos have allowed pressure at the fifth-highest rate this season when not blitzed (42.6% of the time), putting Nix in a near-impossible spot should his team fall behind.
