Now that it’s official that Cam Ward is a Tennessee Titan, it’s time for redraft fantasy football managers to consider his prospects for 2025. We are coming fresh off of a season where a rookie signal caller was a hinge piece on plenty of title teams, but it doesn’t always work out that smoothly.
Let’s take a look at the immediate impact of Ward’s profile at the professional level, highlighting his paths to statistical stardom (ala Justin Herbert), middling outcomes (C.J. Stroud, Dak Prescott, and Marcus Mariota), and even fantasy failure (Gardner Minshew).
Fantasy Football Outlook: Cam Ward
No matter what you think of Ward, the range of outcomes is great. That’s going to be the case for most prospects and when you consider how tightly packed the QB position is these days.
- 2022: Less than 2.0 fantasy PPG separated QB7-QB15
- 2023: Less than 1.6 fantasy PPG separated QB9-QB15
- 2024: Less than 1.3 fantasy PPG separated QB10-QB15
Let me take you through the range of outcomes for Ward, from repeating Daniels’ league-winning campaign to a forgotten Minshew rookie campaign.
Ward’s Path To Repeating 2020 Justin Herbert’s Production
2020 Justin Herbert fantasy points per game: 22.2
Fantasy stock: Weekly fantasy starter by October
This, of course, would be the ideal situation. Herbert was a little slow out of the gate (under 180 passing yards in each of his first four starts), but once he got comfortable, it was clear that he not only belonged at this level, but that the Los Angeles Chargers had their building block and that you had a weekly asset at a nice price.
He finished the season with four straight multi-TD pass games, cleared 25 rushing yards six times despite modest production in that regard while at Oregon, and most importantly, he looked comfortable.
2020 Justin Herbert Ranks
- Completion Percentage, In-Pocket: 17th
- Completion Percentage, Out-Of-Pocket: 10th
- Touchdown Rate, In-Pocket: 18th
- Touchdown Rate, Out-Of-Pocket: 9th
In Ward’s PFSN scouting report, Dalton Miller listed “manipulative sack avoider” as a strength and the best way to do that given his profile is to scramble to pass. This is something we saw him do at the collegiate level, and it helped make Herbert a very productive fantasy option despite playing for a team that didn’t have a 1,000-yard receiver or a 600-yard rusher for the season.
Ward’s Path To Repeating 2023 C.J. Stroud’s Production
2023 C.J. Stroud fantasy points per game: 18.3
Fantasy stock: Draft two QBs and play the matchups
Stroud left Ohio State and threw for 4,000 yards as a rookie. His vision was a key to that success and is a trait that Ward shares. Of course, it helped that Stroud had a star WR1 (Nico Collins posted an 80-1297-8 stat line in 2023) with some nice complimentary pieces (rookie Tank Dell and a then five-year pro in Dalton Schultz).
These are luxuries that Ward doesn’t currently have, but there’s hope that he can offset that for fantasy managers with more willingness to run than Stroud had (as he posted six games with under five rushing yards as a rookie).
From a concerns standpoint, we saw Stroud struggle when under duress and that is a common note that comes up when sifting through Wade’s tape.
2023 C.J. Stroud Ranks
- Non-Pressured TD%: 5.7% (seventh, ahead of Patrick Mahomes)
- Pressured TD%: 2.1% (27th, behind Joshua Dobbs)
A weakness like that causes a low floor that can be frustrating. Stroud had five finishes outside of the top-15 at the position as a rookie, something that could well be in store for Ward this season as he adjusts to the NFL game.
Ward’s Path To Repeating 2016 Dak Prescott’s Production
2016 Dak Prescott fantasy points per game: 17.9
Fantasy stock: Roster worthy, but not a blind start
As a fourth-round pick, Prescott experienced a growth curve that I think most fantasy managers would take from Ward this year. For the season, he finished as a fringe starter at the position, with his peak coming in the middle of the year.
- Weeks 6-12: 22.6 PPG (QB6, ahead of Tom Brady) with 14 TDs against 2 INTs
He threw only one touchdown pass on 99 September attempts that season and cleared 215 passing yards just once after Thanksgiving, but he was a very usable asset after adjusting to the speed of this game, and that helped get you through a portion of the season where bye weeks and injuries often ravage rosters.
What scares me some are the troubles with processing speed that Miller mentioned in his scouting report of Ward. That Dallas Cowboys team allowed the 11th-highest sack rate when not pressured, which led to some of the issues that Prescott had during his first year.
Ward is joining a team that was our 21st-graded offensive line last season and projects again to be below average. Blitzes are one thing, but if Ward isn’t afforded plenty of time to find throwing lanes when the defense drops into full coverage, we could see stretches where the touchdown totals lag. (Prescott had seven games with 24+ pass attempts and no more than one score).
Ward’s Path To Repeating 2015 Marcus Mariota’s Production
2015 Marcus Mariota fantasy points per game: 17.5
Fantasy stock: Depth piece at best in deeper formats
I don’t think it’s the most likely outcome, but it’s not impossible. In Ward’s scouting report, Miller mentions footwork as a weakness in Ward’s tape, and that could result in him struggling in a similar way as Mariota on third downs during his first season (25th in third down CMP%, down from his 17th ranking on the first two downs).
If defenses are going to get exotic with their play calls, this is the time to do it against a first-year QB, thus demanding strong execution to succeed at a consistent rate — something that isn’t possible if the balance isn’t where it needs to be.
To be clear, Mariota had his moments. He had four games with at least three touchdown passes and was the first player in the NFL that season to have multiple games where he completed 70% of his passes and tossed four scores.
Ward replicating this Titans QB’s season wouldn’t be the worst thing for the franchise as a whole if the spikes are impressive, but for fantasy managers, this would make him a tough sell to roster.
Ward’s Path To Repeating 2019 Gardner Minshew’s Production
2019 Gardner Minshew fantasy points per game: 16.4
Fantasy stock: Not worth drafting
Comparing the No. 1 overall pick to a sixth-rounder is truly a worst-case scenario, but there’s a world in which a limited supporting cast could cut out the statistical legs from Ward.
Calvin Ridley’s production has declined from his strong first three seasons in Atlanta and with him turning 30 this past winter, it’s hard to see that rebounding in a major way. As a rookie, Minshew had D.J. Chark as his WR1 and a running back in Leonard Fournette who, entering that season, was averaging 3.69 yards per carry for his career. He didn’t exactly have much of a runway to sustain viable fantasy production, and you could certainly make a similar claim for the 2025 Titans.
Minshew’s Rookie Splits (14 games played)
- Games 1-8: 98.8 rating, 7.6 yards/attempt, 5.0% TD, 0.8% INT
- Games 9-14: 81.7 rating, 6.2 yards/attempt, 3.8% TD, 1.9% INT
There was an adjustment period for the NFL to correctly scout Minshew and that allowed him to thrive initially, but his numbers declined in a significant way as film became more available — a fate that is at least possible for Ward given the lack of upside around him.