Four games is a large enough sample to feel like we can believe what we’re seeing but small enough for drastic changes to still occur. As such, fantasy football managers need to be diligent about monitoring which players are experiencing unsustainable starts to their seasons and who is due for some positive regression to the mean.
Below we take a look at the most overvalued and undervalued players fantasy managers should be aware of entering Week 5.
Top Trade Targets To Buy in Your League
Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy currently ranks 13th in fantasy points per game but has not played with a full deck of cards so far. Reigning Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey has yet to debut, while Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle have also missed time.
McCaffrey’s status remains uncertain moving forward, but Purdy actually had his best fantasy performance of the season in Week 3 against the Los Angeles Rams, when Samuel and Kittle were also absent. To date, that’s the only week where Purdy has eclipsed 15 fantasy points.
Still, the return of most of the Niners’ top weapons and the emergence of Jauan Jennings should eventually boost Purdy’s fantasy production. Purdy ranks third with 0.19 EPA per dropback this season, trailing only Jayden Daniels and Josh Allen. That suggests he’s been playing at a higher level than his fantasy lines would lead you to believe, which could lead to better numbers soon.
Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders’ run game was a total wasteland to begin the season. Las Vegas averaged a league-worst 2.8 yards per rush through Week 3, with a total of 153 rush yards. Against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, they nearly equaled that with 152 rush yards, while also averaging 5.2 yards per rush.
Zamir White did not quite benefit from that, producing just 50 rush yards on 17 attempts in that game. He has also yet to score this season, while backup running back Alexander Mattison has scored three times.
Nevertheless, the Raiders’ usage continues to suggest that White is still the clear lead back. White has taken 58.3% of the Raiders’ carries, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. In addition, his snap count has not dipped, as he played 60% of the snaps in Sunday’s win.
Because of his volume, White’s fantasy production has been 49% worse than expected based on his usage. The leash may be getting shorter if he doesn’t produce, but given how low his value is right now, White could likely be had for bench value while turning into an RB2 or Flex option given the Raiders’ improving run game.
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, New York Giants
Wan’Dale Robinson holds immediate Week 5 value given the uncertain status of sensational rookie Malik Nabers, who suffered a concussion last Thursday. After garnering career-highs in both targets (14) and receptions (11) in Week 4 versus the Dallas Cowboys, Robinson is an obvious option to fill the target vacuum without Nabers.
However, Robinson could hold sustainable value in PPR leagues as well. Robinson ranks fourth in expected PPR points this season (67), with his teammate Nabers being one of the three players ahead of him. The New York Giants have been an extreme funnel-passing offense, with Nabers (34.4%) and Robinson (31.1%) accounting for roughly two-thirds of their targets. Only four other players league-wide have gotten at least 30% of their team’s targets.
Wan'Dale Robinson should be rostered in a higher percentage of ESPN leagues: pic.twitter.com/k1kYPAzqDu
— Moody (@EricNMoody) October 1, 2024
Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys
Jake Ferguson ranks 10th among tight ends in fantasy points this season but fourth in expected points. As such, his production has been roughly 13% below expected, providing an opening for fantasy mangers to pounce.
Ferguson’s current manager could be spooked a bit by his Week 1 knee injury, which appeared severe but only caused him to miss a single game. Although he’s yet to score, Ferguson has been targeted on 27.4% of his routes, the highest on the Cowboys (yes, ahead of CeeDee Lamb) and the highest among tight ends to run 40+ routes.
Once touchdown regression arrives, Ferguson should return to being one of fantasy’s top tight ends when combined with his elite volume.
Top Players To Sell in Your League
Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings
The NFL’s leader in passing touchdowns through four games, Sam Darnold has been the sixth-ranked QB by fantasy PPG so far. But while the Minnesota Vikings do look like real contenders at 4-0, Darnold’s weekly fantasy output might be tough to replicate the rest of the season.
The biggest factor is that the Vikings are due to see significant regression in terms of game script. That may sound obvious for an unbeaten team, but Darnold has thrown a total of two passes while trailing the whole season. At some point Darnold and the Vikings will have a more sustained stretch of playing from behind, which could lead to more of the negative plays that Darnold has traditionally been susceptible to.
Sam Darnold threw 3 touchdowns against the Packers and was able to extend plays and deliver an accurate ball. He also threw an interception, nearly threw a second, and was strip sacked late in the game pic.twitter.com/qqyF7xUcXi
— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) September 29, 2024
Overall, Darnold looks like one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but his 0.03 EPA per play figure ranks 14th among QBs so far. That suggests a player who has been far closer to league-average, a reality which could set in over the coming weeks.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara leads all running backs with 26.7 fantasy points per game. To be clear, this is not recommending you trade Kamara for anything less than another clear RB1.
However, the New Orleans Saints offense has already seen some regression after a historic start, and Kamara could follow eventually. As you’d expect for someone producing at his level, he has far surpassed expectations. Kamara has produced 34% more fantasy points than expected given his usage, the sixth-highest mark of any RB to play half his team’s snaps.
The bigger concern is durability, as Kamara reportedly played through broken ribs in Week 4. With so much season remaining, it’s hard to believe he can compensate for a major injury without further damage. Durability has been a concern for Kamara in recent seasons, as he missed 10 games over the previous three seasons. Fantasy managers might be wise to sell high to avoid the risk of a more significant injury sidelining the Saints star later on.
Jauan Jennings, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Jauan Jennings has been one of the breakout players of the season, ranking third with 364 receiving yards behind only Nico Collins and Malik Nabers. But while he has been spectacularly efficient so far, it’s hard to imagine him sustaining that pace through the season.
Jennings has produced 50.5% more fantasy points than expected based on his usage, which has increased but is not astronomical. He’s received 22.3% of the Niners’ targets thus far, barely higher than Samuel (19.8%) and Brandon Aiyuk (20.7%).
The latter’s eventual re-emergence could be what eventually weighs down Jennings. Aiyuk has disappointed so far, ranking 47th in the NFL with only 167 receiving yards. But a slow start was predictable after his contract holdout extended into September. Once Aiyuk begins to surge, Jennings may need more injuries to San Francisco’s core to remain a top fantasy option.
Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens
After a spectacular Week 1 that saw him reel in nine catches for 111 yards, Isaiah Likely has totaled four catches for 56 yards since. So the sell-high window for the Baltimore Ravens tight end may have already passed, but it’s still worth trying if other managers are put off by Mark Andrews’ slow start.
Likely is receiving almost the exact same playing time as Andrews — 151 snaps compared to 139, respectively. Likely’s receiving numbers obviously dwarf what Andrews has produced so far, but since Week 2, Andrews has actually been targeted on a slightly higher percent of his routes (14.6%) than Likely (14.3%).
Obviously it’s tough to just remove that Week 1 showing from the sample, but history suggests that Andrews is Lamar Jackson’s favorite target. Eventually Likely seems destined to return to being a secondary option in the Ravens’ low-volume passing game.