When you really strip fantasy football down to its core, everything is about value. Your goal in every round is to draft a player who provides more fantasy points per game than his ADP suggests he should. With redraft season still well over a month away, let’s go round by round and pinpoint the top Best Ball values using Underdog Fantasy ADP (as of July 17).
Top Best Ball Values in Each Round
Every season of fantasy football is different. So, not every round will have great values. I have done my best to highlight the player I feel is the best value pick in each of the first 15 rounds. Once you get to the final couple of rounds, everyone is just a dart throw anyway.
Round 1: Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons (ADP 9.8)
First-round values are largely meaningless because you can only capitalize on them if you pick in the exact right spot and no one else in your draft room does it before you. But Bijan Robinson is my RB3. I would take him as the fifth player off the board. At the absolute latest, he should be going seventh.
Robinson is poised for a three-down role on one of the most run-heavy offenses in the NFL. He’s a generational talent and the best running back to enter the league since Saquon Barkley. If you can get Robinson around the ninth or 10th pick, that’s a smash.
Round 2: Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys (ADP 21.0)
As the RB7, Tony Pollard is properly priced. As the 21st overall pick, what are we doing here? Pollard has minimal backfield competition in Dallas and also plays on one of the league’s most explosive offenses.
Pollard finished as the RB8 last season, averaging 14.3 fantasy points per game. He has overall RB1 upside, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if Pollard’s ADP crept into the first round over the next month. Right now, you can get him in the back half of the second round.
Round 3: Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets (ADP 31.4)
At this point, you’re probably sensing a trend here. Running backs are undervalued. The success of zero RB last season and the overall down year for running backs has fantasy managers going wide receiver heavy. Zig when others zag.
Running backs are still the money position in fantasy football, especially in half-PPR formats, as Underdog uses. Breece Hall would probably be the overall RB3 had he not torn his ACL. Of course, that matters. But all reports suggest his recovery is going well, and he’s going to be ready for Week 1. There are risks, but the injury discount on Hall is legitimately two full rounds right now. That’s too much.
Round 4: Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (ADP 47.9)
Yet another RB value. Joe Mixon’s 2022 certainly wasn’t as good as his 15.0 ppg suggests. However, the Bengals remain one of the best offenses in the NFL. Mixon is the clear lead back, and Samaje Perine is gone. Even if Cincinnati wants to limit Mixon’s touches, how can they? Their backups are Trayveon Williams, Chris Evans, and Chase Brown.
Mixon just restructured his contract to stay with the team. He’s going to see all the work he can handle. I’m not saying we’re getting elite RB1 Mixon back, but he merely needs to be a low RB1 to be a value at this price.
Round 5: Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (ADP 54.1)
I still haven’t fully formulated my list of “my guys” this season, but Justin Herbert is almost certainly going to be on it. Heading into last season, Herbert was valued alongside the elites of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Now, he’s going as the QB7? What changed?
All Herbert did was throw for 4,739 yards on 699 attempts. The volume is there, and he’s surrounded by incredible pass catchers. Plus, the Chargers upgraded at OC to Kellen Moore.
The only difference between Herbert’s 2022 season and his average of 23 points per game over his first two years is he had bad touchdown luck. We’re getting a discount based on that. Take it.
Round 6: Cam Akers, RB, Los Angeles Rams (ADP 65.6)
I had to do a double-take when I saw this ADP. Cam Akers was an RB1 over the final six weeks of the 2022 season, playing with Baker Mayfield and without Cooper Kupp. The Rams now have Matthew Stafford and Kupp back healthy.
L.A.’s offensive line can’t be worse, plus Akers’ backfield competition is nonexistent. I know we should be avoiding the RB dead zone, but this is the tail end of the dead zone, making the value proposition greater. Akers has RB1 upside.
Round 7: Darren Waller, TE, New York Giants (ADP 80.7)
For the third year in a row, I’m probably going back to the Darren Waller well. You can never accuse me of being jaded! This guy burned me for two straight seasons, but value is value.
Mid-round tight ends are typically suboptimal picks, except when those tight ends are the clear top pass catchers on their teams. Waller is going miles ahead of any other Giants pass catcher.
Once upon a time, Waller’s name was spoken in the same breath as George Kittle and Mark Andrews. Now, he goes several rounds after them. Twenty picks should not separate Waller and Kittle. Tight end matters in Best Ball, and Waller might just be the best value at the position.
Round 8: Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints (ADP 94.3)
I can’t believe I’m talking myself into Michael Thomas after being so outspoken against drafting him each of the past two seasons. That’s why ADP is so important. At some point, [almost] every player becomes worth it.
Thomas probably isn’t capable of playing football anymore, but he put up WR1 numbers during his short three-game stint last season. And now, the Saints have upgraded at QB to Derek Carr.
I don’t think Thomas will end up panning out, but he’s being drafted as the WR47. Even if you get half a season of WR3 production, that’s probably worth it.
Round 9: Samaje Perine, RB, Denver Broncos (ADP 105.2)
I don’t buy for a second that Javonte Williams is going to play Week 1. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if he missed half the season or had setbacks similar to J.K. Dobbins last year.
Samaje Perine has put up multiple RB1 weeks in his career. He filled in quite well for Mixon last season and even worked his way into a more meaningful standalone role. The Broncos are still liable to sign a veteran back, but right now, Perine is poised to be the feature back to open the season.
Even if Williams returns, Perine might still be worth this pick. He’s going at his floor. This is all upside with very little risk.
Round 10: Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks (ADP 115.4)
I would be fine with Geno Smith as my QB1, but you can easily take him as your QB2. He was the QB8 last year but now goes as the QB15. Yet, the Seahawks spent their first two picks on offensive players who catch passes. Seattle drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round and Zach Charbonnet in the second.
This was a pass-first offense last season, and everything they’re doing suggests they intend to keep focusing on throwing the ball.
Essentially, this ADP is assuming Smith turns back into a pumpkin. I buy what Smith did last season and think he’s just an outlier who legitimately had a ninth-year breakout. Given the ADPs of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and JSN, Smith’s ADP just doesn’t make sense. Either the WRs are overvalued, or Smith is undervalued. For me, it’s the latter.
Round 11: Elijah Mitchell, RB, San Francisco 49ers (ADP 123.4)
Elijah Mitchell has already proven himself capable of being a lead RB in this league. However, he has two problems this season: health and Christian McCaffrey.
For the former, there’s nothing we can do about that. Fortunately, at Mitchell’s RB41 price tag, we don’t really need to worry about the injury risk. When on the field, he can play. The problem is he will be backing up McCaffrey.
The reason I like Mitchell is because he may very well have standalone RB3 value. There will be weeks where he rushes for 40 yards and a touchdown as a backup. Then, there’s the low-RB1 upside if McCaffrey gets hurt. That combination makes him very appealing in the double-digit rounds.
Round 12: Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP 135.3)
Efficiency-wise, Jaylen Warren was better than Najee Harris last season. To be fair, that’s a very low bar. While Warren was good, some anti-Harris sentiment has likely made Warren appear better than he is.
Nevertheless, Warren is unquestionably the Harris handcuff, with the potential for a couple of weeks of standalone value. At RB44, the juice is worth the proverbial squeeze.
Round 13: Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals (155.3)
I don’t think Kyler Murray is going to play football this season. But what if he does? What if he returns midway through the season?
Most of the guys you draft at this point are not going to contribute to your fantasy team. Murray could be a top-five QB during the most important weeks of the season. At his QB21 price tag, the risk is almost nonexistent.
Round 14: Rashid Shaheed, WR, New Orleans Saints (ADP 161.9)
I know what you’re thinking — “Didn’t you just list Michael Thomas earlier?” Yes. Yes, I did. And yes, there is no realistic scenario where Thomas is a value, and so is Rashid Shaheed. Shaheed’s value is predicated on Thomas not being a thing.
But this isn’t one draft we’re doing here — we’re just pinpointing value. There can be value in the potential for Thomas to stay healthy, as well as value in Shaheed benefiting from the likelihood that Thomas is done.
Shaheed was incredibly efficient last season on limited work. He displayed elite speed and impressive downfield ability. The Saints are perilously thin at wide receiver behind Chris Olave and Thomas. Shaheed should open the season as New Orleans’ WR3, which is already enough to give fantasy managers a couple of boom weeks. If he ends up as their WR2, he will smash this ADP out of the park.
Round 15: Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers (ADP 169)
The Packers gave Jayden Reed second-round draft capital, and he’s stepping into a wide receiver room with no clear WR2 behind Christian Watson. I’m not a believer in Day 3 pick Romeo Doubs.
Reed may not open the season doing much, but neither did Watson last year. If Reed emerges as this team’s WR3 over the second half of the season, he will provide tremendous value relative to his ADP.