The first game of the NFL Divisional Round sees the Baltimore Ravens host the Houston Texans. This game is a tricky one from an NFL DFS perspective, with a lack of standout options at both RB and WR. That might mean we have to get creative, especially if we want to go for QB Lamar Jackson in that all-important captain spot.
With the assistance of projections from the free PFN NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer, let’s examine the top NFL DFS picks for the first game of the weekend.
Who Are the Top NFL DFS Picks for Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens?
Lamar Jackson, QB
It is hard to ignore Jackson this week, but the biggest question will be, do you take the hit of making him your captain, or do you try and go elsewhere? Jackson has a ceiling that perhaps only C.J. Stroud can match, but it is hard to trust Stroud against the league’s best scoring defense.
If you are playing in multiple contests, you likely want to balance making Jackson your captain against just having him as a flex option. The upside is that he could score you 50+ points as captain, which would be hard to make up for with another strategy.
Devin Singletary, RB
In these showdown slates, you have to select from each team, and the pickings are slim for the Texans. Stroud and Nico Collins are very expensive with tough matchups, so in terms of value, you need to look elsewhere.
Devin Singletary adds insult to injury 🥴
The #Texans are pouring it on❗️#WeAreTexans pic.twitter.com/7hmvY15hwe
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 13, 2024
The Ravens’ defense was fairly vulnerable against RBs in the last four weeks, allowing an average of 25.8 fantasy points. Singletary is quite an expensive “balancing” option for lineups, so pairing him with Jackson as captain could be tough. However, with 60 yards and a touchdown in each of the last two games, he is a tempting option this week.
Justice Hill, RB
If you are looking for a value RB option in this matchup, then Justice Hill jumps out to me immediately. The Texans have not been a bad team against opposing RBs, but they did allow two touchdowns to Kareem Hunt last week.
Hill is the more exciting option of the Ravens’ RBs in terms of non-touchdown-related ceiling. In the last three weeks of the regular season, Hill was targeted 18 times while carrying the ball 13 times in the two games against the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins.
It is the pass-catching ability that gives Hill intriguing upside at his current price in Showdown slates. His value is slightly elevated in terms of potential output in the full-PPR format on DraftKings compared to the half-PPR format on FanDuel.
Zay Flowers, WR
From a WR perspective, this game is an odd one because it is Zay Flowers and Collins for the Texans, and then a relatively big gap in terms of trustworthy options. Flowers finished the season with four 20-point performances in his final five games, scoring touchdowns in each of those four games.
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The Texans have been allowing an average of 30.43 fantasy points per game to WRs, and with Flowers offering better value than Collins, he is the WR I will lean on. If you are looking to go cheaper at the position, then you could take a shot on Ravens WR Odell Beckham Jr. finding the end zone at some point.
Isaiah Likely, TE
It was not a huge surprise to see Mark Andrews immediately installed as the highest-priced TE this week, but it is Isaiah Likely who was still set to provide the better value in my eyes. Andrews is the better player but was never likely to play many snaps, and it looks like he won’t even be ready to return at all.
Likely has four double-digit scores in the last five weeks, with the fifth week sitting at a perfectly respectable 8.6. This week, he goes up against a Texans defense that has been allowing 13.52 fantasy points per game to tight ends this season.
We saw Njoku post 16.3 fantasy points without finding the end zone against the Texans last week. Likely would probably need to find the end zone to get to that level of scoring, but he is more than capable, with five touchdowns in the last five weeks.
Dalton Schultz, TE
If you need to find a cheaper Texans option than Singletary, TE Dalton Schultz may well be your man. With uncertainty in terms of the second WR behind Collins, Schultz could be heavily utilized this week.
This season, Schultz has eight double-digit performances and two more games with more than nine fantasy points. He has a really nice upside in a matchup against a defense that allowed an average of 10.58 fantasy points to the tight end position this season.
Ravens DST, K
If you are going to make a Jackson as captain strategy work, then you need some cheaper options, and that means DST and kickers come into play. The Ravens DST has scored 10+ points on nine occasions this season and can score in multiple different ways.
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They do not allow many points, force turnovers, and get to the QB, all crucial categories for fantasy scoring. I do not ever want to bet against the exciting player that Stroud is, but there is a reasonable chance the rookie has a down-to-earth moment against this Ravens’ defense in Baltimore.
Justin Tucker, K
It has been a couple of leaner weeks for Justin Tucker, but if you need a mid-priced option to balance your lineup, look no further. Between Weeks 9 and 16, Tucker had six double-digit fantasy performances in seven games.
He may not be at the peak of his powers anymore, but Tucker presents a solid option to get you 8-10 points if the Ravens offense is even remotely clicking.
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