The annual Thanksgiving tripleheader concludes from frosty Lambeau Field with the Miami Dolphins visiting the Green Bay Packers. While you finish up your Thanksgiving with some pies and desserts, here’s some DFS lineup strategy to munch on using DraftKings’ prices.
Week 13 Dolphins-Packers DFS Picks
- CAPTAIN: Josh Jacobs ($15,000)
- FLEX: Tua Tagovailoa ($9,000)
- FLEX: Jaylen Waddle ($7,400)
- FLEX: Christian Watson ($6,800)
- FLEX: Jonnu Smith ($6,400)
- FLEX: Brandon McManus ($5,200)
DFS Strategy: Captain Josh Jacobs
The two starting running backs in this game are the clear-cut top two options in this game. While De’Von Achane is a worthy inclusion and might be the most rostered player in this matchup, we’re zagging and going with Josh jacobs.
Jacobs has a slightly more favorable matchup and expected game script. The Dolphins rank 20th in PPR points per game allowed to running backs, their worst against any position. Moreover, the Packers rush at the fifth-highest rate, while the Dolphins rush at the 15th-highest rate.
Both are bell cows in their offenses, but Achane’s price tag is $16,200 at the captain level. His value in the passing game does account for a meaningful difference, but Jacobs is a better value with the extra $1,200 to beef up the rest of your lineup.
DFS Strategy: Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle, and Jonnu Smith
The Dolphins are a fairly concentrated passing game. Since Tua Tagovailoa returned in Week 8, the top four of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Jonnu Smith, and Achane has accounted for 81% of the team’s receiving yards.
While it’s not really possible to buy into that whole group given their respective prices, you can invest in the majority of the Dolphins’ passing game with Tua, Waddle, and Smith. Hill is a rough proposition value-wise at $9,800 despite not eclipsing 80 yards since Week 1, making Waddle and Smith better roster choices.
Waddle is coming off his best game of the season, recording a season-high 144 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 12. The Packers are a tricky matchup for wide receivers, but top cornerback Jaire Alexander remains out with a knee injury, softening this matchup for Waddle and Tagovailoa alike.
Smith has been terrific since the Dolphins came back from bye in Week 7, ranking as the TE1 overall by total PPR points. He’s received 22.1% of Miami’s targets in that span, seventh-highest among tight ends. As one of the rare tight ends who isn’t totally touchdown-dependent, Smith is a fairly high-floor play.
DFS Strategy: Christian Watson and Brandon McManus
With Romeo Doubs unlikely to suit up on a short week after suffering a concussion in Week 12, that opens up the logjam in the Packers’ wide receiver group. One of the main beneficiaries should be Christian Watson, who led Green Bay receivers in snaps played for the first time this season in Week 12.
Watson is certainly a boom-or-bust option, with an aDOT of 18.2 air yards and yards per catch average of 19.1. That does make him appealing from a DFS perspective, where you need a home run option that isn’t widely rostered. Watson’s value should be depressed coming off a goose egg in Week 12, but he just had 150 yards the week prior and should see a steady floor of snaps.
Finally, kicker Brandon McManus has a strong matchup. Miami has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to kickers this season. Since joining Green Bay in Week 7, McManus is 7/8 on field goals and 13/13 on extra points. He’s a more stable option than some of the depth pieces and either D/ST in this game.