What if Giannis Antetokounmpo, James Harden, and Darius Garland Get Traded? A Preemptive Fantasy Basketball Value Check

Rumors are swirling with the NBA trade deadline coming: what is the fantasy impact should massive trades take place on the hardwood?

It’s early February, and the NBA trade rumors are swirling ahead of Thursday’s deadline. With big names being brought up left and right, fantasy basketball managers are forced to consider the “what if” world, and the savvy may look to jump the gun on a move.

What are the latest rumors, and how should you be looking at them in regard to your squad during the stretch run?

James Harden Trade Rumors Shake Up Cavaliers Rotation

This week is Super Bowl week for most, but the NBA content machine slows for no one. We got word on Monday that a trade involving James Harden is being explored at a high level, and the Cleveland Cavaliers have positioned themselves as the favorites to land the 11-time All-Star.

Harden is going to do what Harden does, and if a team is going to sacrifice nearly a decade in age to acquire his services, I think it’s pretty fair to say he will be given free rein in an offense that is objectively better than the unit he’s leaving behind.

I’d give him a minor boost in all formats. He is scoring 10.7% more points per drive this season than last, and that ability opens up everything. In the New Year, Cleveland is the second-best wide-open three-point shooting team, giving them the ability to put defenses in compromised situations at a higher rate than Los Angeles (12th over that same stretch).

The more interesting conversation, in my opinion, is the value of his running mates. I’m not worried about the value of Donovan Mitchell (any minor regression in raw counting numbers should be offset by an uptick in efficiency), but I do think it’s fair to panic a bit about your Evan Mobley shares.

The versatile big is already dealing with a profile headed in the wrong direction. This calf injury doesn’t sound like it’s going away, and Jarrett Allen (fresh off 40 points, 17 rebounds, 5 rebounds, 4 blocks, and 2 steals on Sunday in Portland) is more the type of rim-running big that fits the eye of The Beard.

That’s not to say you toss Mobley to the side of peanuts. His best basketball is ahead of him, and the variety of skills is undeniable (over 1.0 3PM per game since the beginning of last season and 2.4 blocks-plus-steals per contest for his career), but as a 30.4% three-point shooter playing alongside a more traditional big, I worry about his ceiling for the remainder of this season.

Not ideal in a vacuum, never mind the health issues.

Darius Garland is the piece rumored to be headed to Los Angeles in this deal, and while the toe injury continues to linger, the move is a logical one for the Clips. Garland played 75 games last season and actually averaged more passes out of drives per game than Harden.

He’s proven to be a viable shooting threat along with strong assist numbers, and when on the court, I’m not sure those numbers are going anywhere.

What has caught my eye in this situation is the value of John Collins and his potential to elevate into a league winner over the final two months of this regular season.

This season, 36.2% of his shots have come from downtown, up from 27.9% a year ago with the Jazz. More encouraging is the fact that he’s knocked down 44.7% of his catch-and-shoot triples (66.1% eFG% when launching before taking a dribble) and that his minutes have been trending up.

He’s also averaged 2.0 blocks-plus-steals in January, giving his fantasy profile a little bit of everything. If there’s a Clipper to benefit from this team playing five times in seven days when it matters in a big way for us (March 13-18), I think it’s Collins with a bullet.

Fantasy Basketball Fallout if Giannis Antetokounmpo Is Moved

We don’t yet know whether this will happen, what the required package would be, or which city he would land in.

I’m not getting too crazy here in terms of an injured Antetokounmpo himself. That said, I do think he has two teammates who stand to see their respective values change should the franchise centerpiece be moved.

Myles Turner has seen 87.7% of his 3PA this season come in catch-and-shoot spots. The quality and quantity of those looks stand to take a hit in this non-Giannis world, and while he did look good to close January with 17+ points in three straight games (a run that also included an eye-popping 14 blocks), that appears to be more the exception than the rule.

In the first three weeks of the month, the former Pacer had a total of five blocks and averaged a very ordinary 10.3 points per game.

We all like Ryan Rollins and Bobby Portis, especially with Kevin Porter Jr. on the shelf. Those two figure to handle the majority of the usage in this scenario, but I think Kyle Kuzma comes with some hidden upside.

He’s the next man up and has cleared 15 points scored in three straight. We know he can rebound and knock down shots when he is right … with an increased role, that skill set can pay off more moving forward than it has up to this point.

Milwaukee goes to Miami and Atlanta before returning home for a date with Indiana from March 12-15, a stretch that could prove critical for you, whether it’s the end of the regular season or early in the postseason.

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