The Atlanta Falcons and Jacksonville Jaguars are two struggling teams that have pulled out some surprising wins throughout the year. In Week 9, Atlanta knocked off the New Orleans Saints, while Jacksonville beat the Buffalo Bills in one of the season’s biggest upsets. Still, they each sit at the bottom of their divisions in 2021. Below, you’ll find NFL odds and a pick and prediction for the Falcons vs. Jaguars for Week 12.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars pick, prediction | Week 12
- Spread: Falcons -1 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Falcons -120, Jaguars +100
- Over/Under: 47
Cordarrelle Patterson’s injury
Cordarrelle Patterson entered the season as somewhat of a gadget player in Atlanta’s backup running back role. He’s been a revelation, though, as a breakout weapon for the Falcons. Although he’s seen limited snaps throughout the season, Patterson has accounted for 24% of Atlanta’s offensive yards and 37% of their offensive touchdowns.
Patterson played only 15 offensive snaps before suffering an ankle injury against the Dallas Cowboys. He missed last week against the New England Patriots with that ailment, as well. The Falcons’ offense sputtered without him, scoring only 3 total points in those two games.
Patterson had fewer than 5 targets in only one other game this season. That came in Week 1 against the Philadelphia Eagles when Atlanta scored only 6 points.
It’s clear that their offense has very little trending in the right direction at the moment, and Patterson missing a second consecutive game would drastically change their potential production.
Falcons vs. Jaguars betting trends
The Falcons and Jaguars have struggled against the spread (ATS) throughout the season, posting 4-6 records thus far.
Atlanta has struggled a bit more, failing to cover the spread by an average of 8.2 points per game. Meanwhile, Jacksonville sits at only 4.4 points per game in that category.
The Jaguars have struggled at home, posting a 1-4 ATS record in Jacksonville. The Falcons have surprisingly traveled well, recording a 3-2 road ATS record this season. They also covered in their only game as a road favorite this year.
Atlanta’s been a neutral team, finding both the over and the under in exactly 50% of their games. That hasn’t been the case for Jacksonville. They’ve hit the under in 80% of their contests, which is the second-highest rate in the NFL.
Falcons vs. Jaguars prediction
The Falcons vs. Jaguars prediction relies heavily on Pattersons’ status. Without Calvin Ridley and Hayden Hurst, Atlanta needs someone to take the pressure off Kyle Pitts. If Patterson is healthy, I side heavily with the Falcons in this game.
The Jaguars should continue to get better as a young team, although there is far too much drama within the organization, and they’re not a talented roster overall.
It’s always risky to back a small road favorite, especially when they’re a bad team like Atlanta. Still, Patterson can bring some upside to their offense that Jacksonville simply doesn’t have at this point, although I’m not expecting a high-scoring affair.
Falcons vs. Jaguars Prediction: Falcons 20, Jaguars 13