Falcons vs. Bills Prediction, Pick: Can Atlanta upset Josh Allen and the Bills in Week 17?

Can Buffalo continue their winning ways against Atlanta this weekend? Here's our Falcons vs. Bills pick and prediction for Week 17.

After a win against the New England Patriots, the Buffalo Bills control their own destiny for the rest of the season. Winners of two straight, Buffalo now leads the AFC East with a 9-6 record. The Atlanta Falcons are still playing for the playoffs, although they need a bit of help. They’re only one game out of the Wild Card despite owning a 7-8 record. You’ll find the NFL odds along with my Falcons vs. Bills prediction and pick in this article.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills pick, prediction | Week 17

  • Spread: Bills -14 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Moneyline: Falcons +600, Bills -900
  • Over/Under: 44

Josh Allen vs. Atlanta’s pass defense

Josh Allen has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this season. He’s thrown for 4,048 yards with 34 touchdowns and 12 interceptions on 575 pass attempts. He’s added 619 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground as well.

Although Allen’s one of the more versatile quarterbacks in the NFL, this matchup should feature his arm more than his legs.

The Falcons have struggled against the pass this season, allowing 244 passing yards per game in 2021. They’ve also given up 7.5 adjusted yards per attempt through 15 games. Most importantly, Atlanta has given up 28 passing touchdowns with a 5.3% passing touchdown rate.

With the NFL recently changing its COVID protocols, Allen could have his full arsenal of receivers for this game.

Falcons vs. Bills betting trends

Atlanta’s struggled against the spread (ATS) throughout the 2021 season. They enter this game with a 6-9 ATS record, failing to cover by an average of 5.4 points per game. The Falcons have only covered in one of their last four games.

Buffalo has performed significantly better throughout the season. They own an 8-6-1 ATS record, covering by an average of 3.6 points per game. The Bills have also covered in each of their last two games.

These teams are opposites in terms of the game total.

The Falcons have found the under in 60% of their games, while the Bills have hit the over in 53.3% of their contests.

Falcons vs. Bills prediction

Buffalo shouldn’t be in danger of losing this game. They have an offense that should consistently score against this Atlanta defense, and Allen is the type of star that will show up in this type of atmosphere.

The Falcons don’t have the playmakers on offense to keep this game close, especially on the road with so much on the line. The Bills should have the edge in every facet of this game, and the question becomes whether they can cover a 2-touchdown spread. I expect them to find elite offensive success, and I prefer the Bills and the over in this game.

Falcons vs. Bills Prediction: Bills 31, Falcons 17


Every day, get free NFL updates sent straight to your inbox!