The Atlanta Falcons and San Francisco 49ers will face off in a matchup that will help shape the NFC playoff picture. The 49ers currently sit sixth in the NFC with a 7-6 record, while the Falcons are tied with four teams at 6-7. Outlined below are the NFL odds, along with my pick and Falcons vs. 49ers prediction.
Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers pick, prediction | Week 15
- Spread: 49ers -9.5 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline:Â Falcons +340, 49ers -450
- Over/Under:Â 45.5
Generally, home-field advantage benefits the home team. Pretty obvious, right? That hasn’t been the case for either of these teams, though. The Falcons boast a 5-2 road record that dips to only 1-5 at home. The 49ers have seen similar splits, posting a 2-4 record at home compared to 5-2 on the road.
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Atlanta has posted a -14.8 average point differential through six home games. That number drops to only -4.3 on the road. Their average point differential would be significantly better on the road, but they lost by 23 and 40 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys, respectively.
The 49ers have found plenty of success away from home, recording a +4.9 average point differential. That number decreases to -1 in San Francisco, though. With that being said, the 49ers have won each of their last two home games.
Falcons vs. 49ers betting trends
The Falcons and 49ers have both struggled against the spread (ATS) this season, posting 6-7 ATS records. Atlanta’s failed to cover by an average of 5.2 points per game, while San Francisco’s failed to cover the spread by 0.7 points.
The 49ers have struggled with a 2-4 home ATS record in 2021. The Falcons have looked outstanding on the road, posting a 5-2 road ATS record.
These teams are on opposite sides of the game total this season. Atlanta owns a 6-7 over/under record, while San Francisco’s sits at 7-6.
With that being said, the 49ers boast a league-best 4-2 over/under record, finding the over in 66.7% of their games. The Falcons have quietly posted a 4-3 over/under record on the road as well.
Falcons vs. 49ers prediction
The home/road splits of both of these teams are one of the most surprising aspects of this game. It begs the question of how much you should be looking into numbers when predicting the outcome.
Overall, I trust the 49ers significantly more than I trust the Falcons. Still, this is a near double-digit spread, leaving plenty of opportunities for the Falcons to cover in this game. That’s what I’m expecting.
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The Falcons certainly don’t have a playoff roster, while the 49ers are a borderline Wild Card team. That should be how this game plays out, with Atlanta keeping it close enough to cover the spread.
Falcons vs. 49ers Prediction: 49ers 27, Falcons 20
