Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott is battling Father Time, but he does have a clear path to a consistent role in an offense that we all expect to put points on the board. Is there value to chase here as Elliott’s fantasy football stock dips from a lack of efficiency in recent seasons?
Should You Select Ezekiel Elliott at His Current ADP?
ADP: 105th Overall (RB36)
Your willingness to speculate on Elliott depends on where you place the blame for his underwhelming scoring numbers from last season. Are you of the belief that scoring on 1.6% of his carries in 2023 (2022 with Dallas: 5.2%) was the result of an inept offense, or was it a clear sign of physical decline?
I fall more in the camp of the latter than the former, but the asking price isn’t prohibitive. Right now, Elliott is priced as an RB4 and will appear in your queue as the 10th round approaches.
In my opinion, there’s no real thing as a bad selection in the second half of fantasy drafts, and banking on a role that seems to be locked in entering the season is a reasonable approach.
Gus Edwards (a younger version of Elliott without any pass-catching upside) and Zach Charbonnet (out-touched essentially 2:1 by Kenneth Walker III last season) are in a similar range.
Running backs at this point in the draft are going to carry risk, and Elliott is no different. It’s just a matter of what risk profile has your interest based on the roster you’ve put together.
Grabbing both Elliott and Rico Dowdle (ADP: 150th) is a reasonable approach. I don’t expect both to hold value, but this was the top-scoring offense in the NFL last season and is as good a bet as any to generate scoring opportunities.
By locking in the vast majority of the carries in this backfield, you’re betting against a true committee situation. If either of these RBs handles 65% of the work, he’ll return a massive profit on your investment and give your roster elite depth potential.
Elliott’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
The age curve for Dallas’ backfield is an interesting one. There isn’t much debate that Zeke’s best days are behind him. We are also confident that Dowdle (96 career carries) and Deuce Vaughn (just seven appearances as a rookie) have greater usage in their futures than what we’ve seen up to this point.
I don’t make a habit of targeting that profile, but with the win-now Cowboys inking Elliott to a one-year deal in April, it’s very possible that the plan is to ride the veteran as long as possible. That would hold plenty of value in our game, given the potency of Dallas’ offense.
Zeke is back home! 🙌 ⁰⁰@EzekielElliott | @dallascowboys pic.twitter.com/2f13IYg5Nm
— NFL (@NFL)
Elliott is entering his age-29 season and coming off a year that saw him average a career-low 3.5 yards per carry for the New England Patriots. That said, he did manage to haul in 51 passes, giving him at least 47 in five of his past six seasons — a level of versatility that, when combined with consistent volume, can yield positive fantasy returns, even if the efficiency is limited.
