We’re two weeks into the 2024 NFL season, and we’re slowly getting bigger sample sizes to work with to evaluate players for fantasy football.
Going into Week 3, we examine the outlooks for three players who collectively have delivered mixed results for fantasy managers so far: Jordan Mason, Chris Olave, and Terry McLaurin.
Jordan Mason’s Week 3 Fantasy Outlook
Just like we thought – a single running back would have every single rushing yard at the position for the San Francisco 49ers and would be on the field for north of 80% of the snaps. Like we thought, said running back would have a 20+ yard tote and a touchdown in every game, driving an offense that is featuring him as a true workhorse.
The name on the back of the jersey, however, is the part we missed. Mason has been nothing short of special in the stead of Christian McCaffrey (256 yards through two weeks), and while I have my concerns about his ability to handle 25 touches per game for months at a time, I have zero reservations about his ability to gash a Rams defense that owns the worst rushing EPA in the league through two weeks.
MORE: Kyle Soppe’s Week 3 Start/Sit Advice for Every Fantasy-Relevant Player
The 49ers are a touchdown road favorite, pointing to a positive game script that should land Mason plenty of opportunities to create splash plays against a Los Angeles team that is flailing apart at the seams (3.4 points allowed per drive, NFL average: 1.9).
Deebo Samuel Sr. is only the player on this roster that I worry about in terms of stealing valuable fantasy opportunities, but we learned that he is set to miss time, leaving Mason as a locked-in RB1 in all formats.
Could he be a sell-high candidate with time? It could happen as we gather intel on the McCaffrey recovery, but until then, you’re plugging in Mason with as much confidence as any player on your roster.
Chris Olave’s Week 3 Fantasy Outlook
If you had told me that the New Orleans Saints would start 2-0 and chasing historic offensive efficiency marks, I would have bet the house on Olave’s Year 3 breakout being well underway.
Instead, we have more questions than answers. His aDOT is down 22.3% from a season ago, a trend I’d accept if he was excelling out of the slot and getting those easy-button targets. But he’s not — at all.
In 2023, Olave ran 38% of his routes out of the slot and, despite a decline in depth of target, his rate has tanked to 10.2% through two games this season. The Week 2 beatdown of the Cowboys was a step in the right direction, though there is no denying that this is a rough start for Olave if we are to assume that this is the peak of New Orleans’ offense powers (they have 91 points and he has just 92 receiving yards).
Chris Olave is insane.
📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/4FH76lAT9h
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) September 15, 2024
We are seeing a Shaheed-like receiver break out in Detroit with Jameson Williams similarly stretching the field. It took a week, but Amon-Ra St. Brown’s value rebounded from a one-game struggle and his value is now exactly where I had it entering the season.
Will that be the case for Olave? I have some concerns due to some more skill set duplication with Shaheed than St. Brown has with Williams, but I’m holding firm with him as a lineup lock.
We’ve seen dry spells in this profile before (under 60 yards in five of six games during an early run last season) and I’m hoping that when he comes out of this minor funk, he does so in a big way.
Terry McLaurin’s Week 3 Fantasy Outlook
Yikes. The idea of drafting McLaurin this summer was that he was the alpha receiver in an offense set to improve. But maybe we were blinded by the upside of Jayden Daniels and overlooked the learning curve in the process.
Through two weeks, McLaurin has just eight grabs for 39 yards. Average depth of target and target share are statistics that are typically inversely correlated, but both are trending toward a career low for the Washington Commanders’ WR1.
The box scores up to this point are very discouraging, but let’s not lose track of the fact that McLaurin still has as many catches as any of his teammates have targets and that this offense is going to develop with time.
Could some of that development from Daniels take place this week? The Cincinnati Bengals own the second-lowest blitz rate this season, potentially putting the rookie in a spot to execute through the air as opposed to defaulting to his athleticism to save the day.
I want to see it before committing to McLaurin as a top-25 option at the position, but he’s swimming in those waters for me – I have him ranked as a viable Flex option in a similar vein as Christian Kirk and Stefon Diggs.