New York Giants tight end Evan Engram has finished as a TE2 or better in 80% of his 34 active games from 2017 to 2019. Over that span, he’s averaged 7.3 targets per game. Engram led the Giants with 109 targets last season but also dropped the second-most passes in the NFL. Does Engram’s fantasy football outlook prove he is of value at his current ADP?
Evan Engram’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Last season, Engram finished as the TE15. This was disappointing, considering his target volume and drops. The only other tight ends with more targets than Engram were Travis Kelce and Darren Waller (145 each) and Logan Thomas (110). Engram also had the sixth-most receiving air yards (785) among tight ends.
He averaged a dismal 1.29 fantasy points per target in 2020, the lowest of any tight end who was targeted 100 or more times. The Giants exercised the fifth-year option on Engram earlier this year, effectively owing him $6 million in 2021, per Spotrac. Engram is unlikely to see a high target share and air yards share this upcoming season.
Old faces in new places
The Giants made several notable offseason moves to improve their offense in 2021. The first move was signing wide receiver Kenny Golladay during free agency. The former Detroit Lions receiver signed a four-year, $72 million contract with $40 million guaranteed. This is a sizable amount for a receiver who only played in 47 games since 2017. Nevertheless, Golladay will be the undisputed No. 1 receiver in a Giants’ offense that struggled mightily in 2020.
The Giants also added tight end Kyle Rudolph and wide receiver John Ross in free agency.
Ross was selected No. 9 overall in the 2017 NFL Draft by the Bengals, but he’s struggled with injuries over the last four seasons. Ross has 51 receptions, 733 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns over that time frame, while averaging14.4 yards per reception.
Rudolph won’t command a ton of targets, but he does provide quarterback Daniel Jones with another red-zone weapon. Prior to last year, Rudolph has scored 6+ touchdowns in three of the four previous NFL seasons in the Minnesota Vikings’ run-heavy offense.
The Giants’ first-round pick could take targets away from Engram
The Giants selected Swiss Army knife Kadarius Toney with the No. 20 pick out of Florida. He stockpiled 2,641 all-purpose yards in his collegiate career and caught 120 passes for 1,590 yards and 12 touchdowns. Toney also rushed for 580 yards and 2 more scores in his 38-game career, demonstrating the variety of ways he can be deployed.
The Giants still have Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton on the roster and will be excited to see running back Saquon Barkley return. As a result, the Giants have multiple offensive weapons that will siphon targets away from Engram in 2021.
The offensive line will gel even more in 2021
The Giants’ young offensive line will be more unified this season. New York enjoyed the most success last year when they leaned heavily on the running game and play-action passing. Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett’s offenses in Dallas were always balanced. That’s a mantra he should embody in New York. It’s imperative that Garrett and head coach Joe Judge improve in 2021 as both are on the hot seat.
The bad news for someone like Engram is that he’ll see a significant reduction in targets. These offseason changes do not bode well for him to become a consistent fantasy contributor in 2021.
Fantasy projection
Engram can be viewed as a touchdown-dependent mid-range TE2. He could see around 80 targets, 45 receptions, 550 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns.
Evan Engram’s ADP
Engram is readily available in the ninth round of fantasy drafts when you review redraft ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator. This trend is similar in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, where Engram has an ADP of 145.04. However, on Sleeper, Engram’s ADP Â is 152.9.
Should you draft Engram in 2021?
My recommendation is not to prioritize Engram in fantasy drafts. He’s unlikely to see a high target share in the Giants’ crowded group of pass catchers. If you need a tight end in the early double-digit rounds, I’d rather select players such as Rob Gronkowski, Tyler Higbee, Adam Trautman, Irv Smith Jr., or Gerald Everett.
