Emmanuel Sanders’ fantasy outlook and projection for 2021

On his fourth team in three seasons, Emmanuel Sanders enters the twilight of his career with the Buffalo Bills as he chases a Super Bowl one last time. Joining a surprisingly deep wide receiver room, how much production can we expect from Sanders in 2021, and will his fantasy football outlook be enough to be a value at his current ADP?

Emmanuel Sanders’ fantasy outlook for 2021

With John Brown leaving for the Las Vegas Raiders, the Bills needed a wide receiver capable of filling his role. In steps Sanders, heading into his 12th NFL season. While you usually see a 34-year-old and instantly assume that player is an afterthought, Sanders is the exception. 

Sanders is coming off a one-year stint with the New Orleans Saints, recording 61 receptions on 82 targets for 726 yards and 5 touchdowns. Throughout his career, Sanders has been a model of consistency. Since 2012, he has recorded less than 620 yards just once (2015) with seven seasons of 720+ receiving yards. 

Despite playing on a career-low 52% of snaps in 14 games, Sanders ended the 2020 season as the WR41 while averaging 11.8 ppg. However, his fantasy finishes were sporadic. He was a WR3 or better in eight games (57%) but had four finishes as the WR60 or worse.

But there is a catch. When Sanders went on his cold streak (Weeks 10 through 13), those were the games where Drew Brees was injured. In the games with Brees (9), Sanders’ average weekly finish was the WR35.7 (15.1 ppg).

In New Orleans, he was the clear WR2. With the Bills, Sanders is more the WR3 or WR4. While he does project to be a key component of the offense, the Bills still have to monitor his snap count as they enter a new 17-game season and a deep run in the playoffs. 

Sanders blurs the line between being a fantasy-relevant player and one that is simply a better NFL player. It all comes down to his snap share, which we, unfortunately, will not know until the season is underway.

Fantasy projection

2020 was more bad timing than anything for Sanders. From Weeks 1 through 5, Sanders averaged 13.7 ppg and was on a 122-target pace while playing 67% of snaps. Subsequently, his season was put on hold as he missed two games due to COVID-19.

Sanders had another game with Brees (13.8 PPR) upon his return but then lost his QB until Week 15. When Brees returned, he targeted Sanders 23 times over the final three weeks. As a result, Sanders had fantasy finishes of WR37, WR26, and WR17, respectively.

While he is in a deeper receiver room with the Bills, his opportunities to be on the field should not be diminished. Only the Arizona Cardinals (217 snaps) ran more plays with four-plus wide receiver sets than the Bills (198). 

Although the Bills enter 2021 with a vacated-target share of just 14.5%, should Cole Beasley opt to retire, that jumps to 33.2% — he was second on the team in targets with 107. Sanders was already set to fill the Brown role, but he could see around 5-6 targets a game if this were to play out. Yet, that’s assuming he plays over 80% of the offensive snaps.

Even with load management in mind, early projections have Sanders around 75 targets, 50 receptions, 690 yards, and 6 touchdowns. 

Emmanuel Sanders’ fantasy ADP

According to Sleeper, Sanders is currently being selected with an ADP of 211 in half PPR formats. According to NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Sanders has a much higher ADP at 172.08. On Fleaflicker, his ADP splits the difference at 197.

Should you draft Sanders in 2021 for fantasy?

Sometimes as a writer, you go into an article with a preconceived notion in your head of how it will go. You either like a guy or you don’t, based on what you feel is accurate. But then you dig into the numbers.  

I came into this feeling that Sanders was a clear WR4 on the Bills, erring towards staying away. But even at 34, there is gas left in the tank. I’m certainly not saying his fantasy outlook is that of a WR2, but is he better than the WR74? Absolutely.

There are justified concerns about him playing only 50% of the snaps. With that said, Sanders is not a weekly starter with the way the team is currently constructed. We can revisit that if something happens with Beasley.

As a bye week fill-in, Sanders could get you between 10 to 16 fantasy points. I will take that every single time. With Josh Allen’s newfound accuracy and Sanders’ impeccable route running, Sanders should easily outperform his ADP.