Early Super Bowl 56 Best Bets: Expect another pass-heavy game plan from the Bengals

The Super Bowl is always one of the most exciting days of the year. Even if the game is bad (which, fortunately, the vast majority of recent Super Bowls have not been), there’s a whole host of fun to be had. There’s food. There’s company. And most importantly, there are bets! It’s a little early to start placing anything, but it’s never too early to start looking at the best NFL odds and bets for Super Bowl 56.

*All lines are from DraftKings

Super Bowl 56 Best Bets

Typically, sportsbooks don’t release props until a couple of days before the game. When there’s only one game remaining and it’s the biggest game of the season, we get them as early as possible.

Of course, not every prop is on the board yet. Let’s take a look at what options are currently out there and see if anything stands out as a possible Super Bowl 56 best bet.

Joe Burrow over 37.5 (-110) pass attempts

Ride the wave. The Bengals are Joe Burrow’s team, and they will win or lose with his right arm.

In the regular season, Burrow averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game, but it’s been a different story in the postseason. Burrow is averaging 36.3 pass attempts per game in the playoffs. If we extend it back to his last two regular-season games, his average goes up to 38.8.

The Rams finished sixth in rushing defense in terms of yards allowed but 22nd against the pass. While Joe Mixon is undoubtedly one of the most talented running backs in the league, the Rams just bottle up opposing runners. They held the Cardinals to 61 yards on 18 attempts. Similarly, the Bucs managed just 51 yards on 14 rushes, and the 49ers ran it 20 times for 50 yards.

If the Bengals intend to win this game, they will implement a pass-heavy approach. Unless the Bengals just run away with this game, Burrow should push 40 pass attempts.

Joe Mixon under 64.5 rushing yards (-120)

Oftentimes, the prop bets I choose to go with tell a story. In the Super Bowl, the story is the Rams shutting down Mixon and forcing the Bengals to throw.

The AFC Championship Game was the first time Mixon rushed for more than 65 yards since Week 12. I was on Mixon’s rushing total under and lost that bet. But I don’t feel bad about it. The process was correct, and as far as I’m concerned, I was correct.

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At the end of 60 minutes, Mixon remained under his rushing total. Unfortunately for me, he soared over it in overtime.

This week, I’m going back to the well. Over his last eight games, Mixon is averaging 3.07 yards per carry. Based on his recent performance, he will either need to push 20 carries or break off a big run to go over his rushing total. Probability suggests he won’t. I really like Mixon to go under his rushing total as one of my best bets for Super Bowl 56.

Bengals +4.5 (-110)

I have not reached a decision on which side I like in this game or whether I’m going to bet a side at all. It’s very early, and I don’t want to make any hasty decisions. With that said, we can still do a preliminary assessment of the spread.

The Bengals are installed as 4.5-point underdogs. They’ve been underdogs in every playoff game except their first one against the Raiders and have also covered in all three.

On the other side, the Rams were favored twice and underdogs once. They also covered in every game. We have two teams that are 3-0 against the spread in the playoffs. One of them is taking a loss next week.

My initial inclination is to take the points here. The Bengals have proven to be a scrappy bunch that opponents cannot put away. Even if the Rams win, it should be a close game. Five of the last six playoff games were decided by a field goal, and the one that wasn’t went to overtime on a field goal as regulation time expired.

This line opened at 3.5 and was quickly bet up to 4.5, which I found a bit surprising. Perhaps the Rams playing at home in SoFi Stadium has something to do with it.

Regardless of the reason, 4.5 feels like the best number we’re going to get. I’m not placing a wager on the Bengals just yet, but if you do like Cincinnati, there’s really no reason to wait.