What a weekend of games! Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. We don’t have four days of games this week, but we have important ones. There are only two weeks left in the regular season and only six of the 14 playoff spots wrapped up. We’re moving on to Week 17 and the NFL betting lines for next week.
As I do every week, I give my early picks after an initial review of the lines. So with that being said, here are my early NFL Week 17 predictions.
NFL Week 17 Predictions and Picks
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New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns Odds
- Spread
Browns -6.5 - Moneyline
Jets +260, Browns -320 - Total
36.5
The Cleveland Browns are not a team I would want to play right now. With a veteran QB in Joe Flacco, an unstoppable WR in Amari Cooper, and one of the league’s best defenses, the Browns have that look of a deep playoff run. And they still can win the AFC North as well as the one seed if things break their way.
Meanwhile, the Jets survived a Washington rally on Sunday that sounds as bad as it looks. A blown 27-7 lead, needing a walk-off field goal. But hey, at least Coach Robert Saleh got a vote of confidence for 2024. This one probably won’t be close.
Pick: Browns -6.5
Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds
- Spread
Cowboys -6 - Moneyline
Lions +210, Cowboys -250 - Total
52.5
I personally think these teams are much closer than the six-point spread claims. However, Dallas is back home, where they are undefeated this season, and the Lions could be in celebration/letdown mode.
If these teams face each other in the postseason, my money will be on Detroit, but it’s hard to know just how they will react after clinching their first division title in 30 years and not much on the line.
Pick: Pass
Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens Odds
- Spread
Ravens -3 - Moneyline
Dolphins +130, Ravens -155 - Total
46.5
When I wrote the first draft originally Sunday night, I wrongfully assumed the Ravens would be beat down by the big, bad Niners on Monday night. Boy was I wrong.
After playing, they will, on short rest, fly back cross country and play the 11-4 Dolphins. Miami got the monkey off their back in beating the 10-win Cowboys on Sunday and have a chance to take over the No. 1 seed.
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It should be a close one in a place Miami does not have a lot of success in. But in this scenario, I lean taking the points. The Ravens right now are as good as anyone, but will short rest and travel hurt? Soft lean.
Pick: Lean Miami +3
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Odds
- Spread
Bills -12 - Moneyline
Patriots +550, Bills -800 - Total
40.5
I was right last week in not wanting to lay double digits cross country with the Bills, who escaped L.A. with a win to continue their hot streak. This one is at home, but let’s remember, the Patriots shocked Buffalo earlier this season in their first meeting.
This is a different Bills team, but the Patriots also played well on Sunday night and will be playing spoiler here. I don’t like it, but will hold my nose and take the points, especially since everyone has already given Buffalo the win.
Pick: Patriots +12
Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears Odds
- Spread
Bears -3 - Moneyline
Falcons +130, Bears -155 - Total
39
Somehow, both these teams are still alive in the playoff hunt with two games left. Not only that, but Atlanta can still win the NFC South if Tampa Bay slips up.
First, they have to get by the Bears, who have won three of four and are a FG away from a four-game winning streak. I still don’t believe in the Falcons, even though they have scratched out seven wins this season. I’ll lay it with the Bears.
Pick: Bears -3
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans Odds
- Spread
Texans -3.5 - Moneyline
Titans +154, Texans -185 - Total
43
This will all depend on if C.J. Stroud comes back. In the blowout to the Browns, we saw how bad the Texans can be without him.
Tennessee blew their chance to beat the Seahawks and are just playing out the string at this point. Not touching this until I know if Stroud is playing. If you think he’s playing, jump on this number.
Pick: Pass
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds
- Spread
Colts -3 - Moneyline
Raiders +136, Colts -162 - Total
44.5
I’ve been first-team All-Colts for the last few weeks, leading to a nice raise in my bank account, until this past week’s dud in Atlanta.
On the other side, the Raiders went into KC and beat up the Chiefs to stay alive in the Wild Card and AFC West race. However, they also only had 205 total yards and used two defensive TDs to win that one.
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I’m torn on the side as I think this is a good bounce-back spot for Indy to continue their playoff and division push. I lean Colts, but also love the under here.
The Raiders still have only topped 21 points twice all year, and one was a fluke 63 points against the dead-in-the-water Chargers. Four of their TDs over the last two games have been on defense. The Colts aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut, either, so I’m going under here.
Pick: Under 44.5
Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds
- Spread
Jags -6.5 - Moneyline
Panthers +225, Jaguars -275 - Total
37.5
Hard to pick this one without knowing how bad Trevor Lawrence’s shoulder is. However, after what I saw out of Jacksonville on Sunday vs. Tampa Bay, I’m more than willing to take a stab with Carolina and six points.
The Panthers aren’t good, but they’re trying to play spoiler as we saw them almost beat Green Bay in Week 16. If Lawrence is less than 100%, the 6.5 points are in play. And if Lawrence is out, this line will drop fast.
Pick: Panthers +6.5
Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Giants Odds
- Spread
Rams -6.5 - Moneyline
Rams -298, Giants +240 - Total
42
Even though it won’t make huge headlines with the disappointment of the season ending in missing the playoffs, Brian Daboll’s halftime switch to Tyrod Taylor was probably his best move of the season.
It almost ended in a miracle comeback, but I always thought the Tommy DeVito love was a little much. As for the Rams, I may or may not have snuck a long-shot ticket on them to win the NFC. They have the skill positions and defense to be a sleeper team come January, but I don’t want to lay a TD on the road here.
Five straight games of scoring 28+ points leads me to take L.A.’s team total when posted. The Giants’ defense has been a shell of itself, allowing 22+ points in five of the last seven games. The Rams’ team total should be around 24 based on the point spread and game total.
Pick: Rams team total over 23.5 (when posted)
Arizona Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Eagles Odds
- Spread
Eagles -9.5 - Moneyline
Cardinals +390, Eagles -520 - Total
47.5
This line was Eagles -12 on Monday morning and dropped to 9.5 after they struggled to hold on vs. the Giants. The win ended a three-game losing streak, but there are still many questions there.
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Arizona is playing out the string and has already upset the Eagles’ rival in Dallas, but that’s about all they’ve done this season. I don’t have any faith in them winning, but I would take the points if it goes back to double digits again. The last time the Eagles won by 10 or more was vs. Miami in Week 7.
Pick: Cardinals at +10 or longer
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds
- Spread
Bucs -3 - Moneyline
Saints +140, Bucs -155 - Total
42.5
A win by the Bucs here makes them NFC South champs with a first-round home game on tap. But first, they have to take care of a Saints team that wants that same division crown.
The first time these teams met, it was an easy 26-9 win by the Bucs, and they weren’t playing nearly as good as they are now. Tampa Bay sweeps the series.
Pick: Bucs -3
San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders Odds
- Spread
Niners -13.5 - Moneyline
Niners -900, Commanders +600 - Total
48.5
Not sure many saw that MNF dud coming from the 49ers on Christmas night. But they did lose to what many now consider the best team in football.
Now a short week and traveling east for a 10 a.m. local start. If there was ever a team to bounce back against, it would be the Commanders, who outside of one quarter vs. the Jets, have shown how much they are playing out the sting.
The short-rest, travel scenario always has me taking points here, but I see an angry Niners team coming out for this one. I will wait for the prop market to take Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel overs vs. a terrible Commanders secondary.
Pick: Lean SF -13.5, wait for WR prop overs for 49ers
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks Odds
- Spread
Seahawks -3 - Moneyline
Steelers +150, Seahawks -180 - Total
41
I honestly don’t know what to make of this one. The Steelers aren’t good, but Mike Tomlin gets them to win in December.
The Seahawks insist on needing to come back every single game, which makes laying points tough. Seattle is the better team, so laying with them seems like the right call, but is anyone going to be surprised when Pittsburgh pulls off another upset and lands in playoffs?
Pick: Lean Seattle -3
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos Odds
- Spread
Broncos -5.5 - Moneyline
Chargers +220, Broncos -250 - Total
38.5
Not exactly how the Broncos saw their game vs. the Patriots going on Sunday. Now the season is on the brink, but they’re playing a team that is already done in the Chargers. Denver is much better than what they showed last week and should rebound here if the season is still alive at 4 p.m.
Pick: Lean Broncos -5.5 (if they are still alive)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds
- Spread
Chiefs -7.5 - Moneyline
Bengals +295, Chiefs -375 - Total
45
The Chiefs are not a good football team right now. They were outplayed in every phase of the game on Monday vs. the visiting Raiders, making more mistakes than one can count.
The Bengals need to win both remaining games to have a chance at the playoffs, and if the Chiefs play anywhere near as bad as they did in Week 16, this could be a close one.
Pick: Bengals +7.5
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds
- Spread
Vikings -1.5 - Moneyline
Packers +110, Vikings -130 - Total
45.5
This is basically a playoff elimination game. Both teams are 7-8 and one game back of the Wild Card race — the loser will be eliminated.
The winner could be too, but there’s a long way to go before we can decide that. The Vikings won by two TDs in Lambeau earlier this season without Justin Jefferson. They’re now home and have J.J.
Picks: Vikings -1.5
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