We are nearly a quarter of the way through the NFL season, and as we head into Week 5, things remain delicately poised. This week also sees the start of bye weeks, so instead of our usual 16 games, we have just the 14 to break down.
Let’s examine the early betting lines for Week 5 and give our picks and predictions based on the data that we’ve seen through the first four weeks of the season.
Note: Links to sportsbooks on this page are affiliate links, meaning, at no additional cost to you, we may receive a commission if you click through and sign up for a sportsbook account. If you or someone you know has a gambling issue, please seek help. You can call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700 or visit www.ncpgambling.org for confidential support.
NFL Week 5 Betting Lines, Odds, Picks, Predictions
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Sept. 30, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-4)
- Moneyline: Panthers +160; Bears -192
- Total: 43
After four weeks, the Chicago Bears’ offense might finally be starting to work things out. They focused on getting their dynamic running back the ball in space to negate the impact of their offensive line, and he delivered.
Chicago still ranks 27th in offensive EPA (expected points added) per game, but its defense ranking fifth is buying time to figure it all out. Caleb Williams is playing well when getting the ball out quickly, but the deep passing game remains a concern.
Caleb Williams completed every pass he threw under 15 air yards (15 for 15) in the Bears' 24-18 win over the Rams.
Williams completed just 2 of 7 passes over 15 air yards, which included a 9-yard touchdown to DJ Moore.#LARvsCHI | @ChicagoBears pic.twitter.com/HbszVwZCSl
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 29, 2024
The Carolina Panthers are impossible to judge solely based on metrics right now. In the last two weeks with Andy Dalton under center, they have the fifth-ranked offense in the NFL in EPA per game, and their defense has seen slight improvement as well when under less pressure, even if it is still 24th in defensive EPA on average in that stretch.
This is another matchup of offensive strength against defensive prowess, but this time, I believe the Bears’ defense is capable enough to deliver. I do not love laying more than three points with this offense, and ultimately, the under might be the better play than the Bears here.
Chicago, as part of a moneyline parlay, could be interesting as opposed to laying the points.
Prediction: Bears 20, Panthers 17
Pick: Under 43 points and Bears ML as part of a parlay
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Jets +130; Vikings -155
- Total: 41.5
It’s time for the first London game, and these always throw up some head-scratching results.
Based on what we’ve seen from the Minnesota Vikings through four weeks, they should be able to win this matchup. The Vikings remain one of just three undefeated teams in the NFL, and they also rank second in net EPA per game this season — thanks in large part to being second on defense while being 12th on offense.
The New York Jets are 2-2, but the results have largely been unconvincing. They beat up a New England Patriots team that might be the worst roster in the NFL top to bottom, just crept past the Tennessee Titans, and then lost to the San Francisco 49ers and Denver Broncos.
The Jets’ net EPA of eighth in the NFL suggests they are better than what we saw in Week 4, but is it enough against a very good Vikings unit?
The thought of picking a Sam Darnold-led team over an Aaron Rodgers team is a little head-scrambling. This could be a low-scoring game between two very good defensive units, thus, one to avoid the spread and take the under on the total instead.
Prediction: Vikings 20, Jets 17
Pick: Lean Under 41.5
Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders (-3.5)
- Moneyline: Browns +150; Commanders -180
- Total: 44
The Washington Commanders have been the best surprise of the 2024 NFL season so far. They’ve now won their last three and have done so with some offensive flair, but not in the way you might expect.
Jayden Daniels has been ruthlessly efficient with the ball, and it’s left the Commanders first in the league in offensive EPA per game. However, with the defense ranking 22nd, there is little room for error from the offense.
The Cleveland Browns have been a very good defensive unit, ranking 11th in terms of EPA per game, but their offense has been woeful (31st). Picking Cleveland to win on the road at Washington is a tough thing to even consider, but it’s also hard to 100% trust the Commanders in this spot.
When strength meets strength, which is what we have in the Commanders’ offense and the Browns’ defense, my natural instinct is always to lean towards the team with the strength on defense. Yet, there’s no way I’m picking Cleveland over Washington right now, so this is a pass.
Prediction: Browns 23, Commanders 21
Pick: Pass
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Colts +120; Jaguars -142
- Total: 45.5
To lay it out early, this is not a game I am betting with uncertainty over Anthony Richardson. The confusing part about Richardson’s injury is that I’m not sure if the Indianapolis Colts are better in the short term without him.
Richardson’s long-term potential makes it worth the short-term pain to find out, but Joe Flacco might be the better answer to win in Week 5.
Colts QB Anthony Richardson through Week 3: 3 TDs/6 INTs, 55.9 passer rating, -0.19 EPA per dropback
Joe Flacco so far today: 2 TDs/0 INT, 108.1 passer rating, +0.20 EPA per dropback
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 29, 2024
The Jacksonville Jaguars are a mess right now, ranking 31st in net EPA per game. They are posting negative numbers on offense and defense while being one of just two winless teams entering Monday morning. There is no way Jacksonville should be a favorite, and there is a temptation to take the Colts out of principle, but this is a stay away.
Prediction: Colts 20, Jaguars 17
Pick: Pass
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Buccaneers +120; Falcons -142
- Total: 43
Is there a more confusing team in the NFL right now than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? After losing in embarrassing fashion to the Broncos in Week 3, the Buccaneers took out their frustrations on the Philadelphia Eagles with a commanding victory.
Tampa Bay currently sits 12th in terms of net EPA per game, seventh on offense, and 22nd on defense. The Bucs’ injury situation remains a concern, however.
The Atlanta Falcons are a puzzle that isn’t any easier to figure out. They enter Week 5 at 2-2, with all of their games decided by eight points or less. They’re 20th in net EPA per game, 17th on offense, and 23rd on defense. The Falcons aren’t as injury-hit as the Buccaneers, though, which might be the key ultimately.
I want to lean towards Tampa Bay getting the points here, even on the road. The Bucs have played three good games and collapsed in a heap once. However, that one time they collapsed was when I bought into them. I’m not convinced they will win outright, but the potential outcome of results leans toward the Buccaneers getting 2.5 points.
Prediction: Falcons 21, Buccaneers 20
Pick: Lean Buccaneers +2.5
Buffalo Bills (-1) at Houston Texans
- Moneyline: Bills -118; Texans -102
- Total: 47
The Buffalo Bills have put together two contrasting prime-time games in the last seven days. However, they were completely undone by the Baltimore Ravens’ hard-running style, which was their biggest weakness entering Week 4.
That shouldn’t be the case in Week 5 against the Houston Texans, who have a bottom-10 run game this season in expected points added per game.
The Texans have not covered themselves in glory this season, creeping past the Bears, Colts, and Jaguars to get to 3-1. They are league-average on both sides of the ball, with their offense tending to be very sporadic.
There really isn’t much more to say other than the Texans have been very middling through four weeks and are lucky not to be 2-2 or worse.
The Bills are the better team and should win. They will be fired up after being embarrassed in Baltimore.
My plan this week is to take Buffalo every single way I can, be that moneyline or spread. We just saw them annihilate the same Jaguars team that Houston struggled against this week.
Prediction: Bills 27, Texans 20
Pick: Bills -1 and Bills ML
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
- Moneyline: Ravens -142; Bengals +120
- Total: 49
The Baltimore Ravens have put a shaky start behind them to get back to 2-2 and right back in the AFC race. They’ve shown that there is plenty of potential in their offense, which is sixth in EPA per game, and are a top-10 unit when it comes to both the run and pass.
Baltimore’s defense remains a question, but the performance against Buffalo was a significant improvement.
Derrick Henry forced 7 missed tackles and gained +119 rushing yards over expected against the Bills, the 3rd-most RYOE in a game since 2018.
The Ravens have generated +27.6 EPA on designed runs this season, more than double any other team.#BUFvsBAL | @Ravens pic.twitter.com/BZ3fxbpDzd
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 30, 2024
The Cincinnati Bengals are not a particularly good team, and their defense is a big part of the problem. They rank 29th in defensive EPA, which includes a bottom-10 ranking in both passing and rushing EPA.
Cincinnati’s rush defense is particularly a concern against Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson. The offense could make this interesting, ranking fourth in EPA per game, but if they can’t contain Henry, it will be tough to win.
Both the Ravens -2.5 and the over are in play here, but I actually quite like Baltimore’s ML as part of a parlay. We’ve already seen the Ravens allow offenses to come back on them late this season, and they could be vulnerable again here. This might be a very close game when all is said and done.
Prediction: Ravens 30, Bengals 27
Pick: Over 49 points and Ravens ML as part of a parlay
Miami Dolphins (-1) at New England Patriots
- Moneyline: Dolphins -112; Patriots -108
- Total: 36.5
No, no, no, no, no, no. This matchup is between two of the worst three teams in terms of net EPA per game. The Miami Dolphins’ defense is the best unit in this game, but we have no idea what they’re getting from their quarterback position week to week. I go back to my original sentence of no, no, no, no, no, no when it comes to this game.
The under might well be the play, but I cannot, in good faith, recommend you do anything here. Betting an under for two defenses that rank 15th and 24th in EPA per game is not something I would ever recommend, so even with incompetent offensive play (30th and 32nd in EPA per game), just avoid it.
Prediction: Dolphins 13, Patriots 10
Pick: Pass
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)
- Moneyline: Cardinals +300; 49ers -380
- Total: 49.5
The EPA numbers on this one tell you that the Arizona Cardinals are exactly what their record says they are. At 1-3, this isn’t a good team, and a 22nd net EPA per game highlights that.
Arizona’s offense is fine, ranking eighth in EPA, but the defense is 28th. The Cardinals beat a reeling Rams team in Week 2, but since then, have looked like a shell of that performance.
The 49ers got back on track in Week 4 by handling a bad Patriots team. They are now fifth in net EPA per game, sixth on offense, and ninth on defense. San Francisco is also getting back to full health on offense — other than Christian McCaffrey — which makes a huge difference.
Ideally, I would avoid laying 7.5 points with the 49ers, so the play here is to tease them down to 1.5 and find another play to combine it with.
Prediction: 49ers 27, Cardinals 20
Pick: 49ers -1.5 in a teaser
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-1.5)
- Moneyline: Raiders +105; Broncos -125
- Total: 37
It’s a mystery that either of these two teams is 2-2, but more so the Las Vegas Raiders, who rank 25th in net EPA per game. They’re 25th when it comes to offensive EPA per game and 20th on defense.
There’s not a lot to be positive about here. The comeback against the Ravens was incredible but unsustainable, and beating up on the Browns proves nothing.
The Broncos have built this season on fantastic defense, and it’s largely paying off. They are third in the league in points allowed, thanks to a defense that is third in EPA per game. The offense is bad, ranking third from the bottom in EPA per game, but doing enough to keep them in games and grab a couple of wins.
I cannot believe we are contemplating laying points with Denver. It’s probably the right play, but I cannot do it in. Instead, I’m going to look at the under here with two teams averaging 35 points per game.
Prediction: Broncos 17, Raiders 13
Pick: Under 37 points
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Los Angeles Rams
- Moneyline: Packers -198; Rams +164
- Total: 46.5
The Green Bay Packers are a tough team to read because of their tumultuous season. They got Jordan Love back last week, and he put in a roller-coaster performance, which is to be expected coming back off a knee injury against one of the best defenses in the NFL.
Green Bay is likely to be one of the better teams in the NFC when things settle down; we just haven’t seen it unfold yet.
The Rams, meanwhile, are not one of the better teams in the NFC. And if not for a stunning comeback in Week 3, they would be 0-4 with Sean McVay under a ton of pressure.
Los Angeles ranks 28th in net EPA per game, 31st defensively, and 10th offensively. That concern on defense is likely to be exploited by the Packers, who have the weapons to beat teams on the ground and through the air.
Love’s knee injury makes me hesitant to fully commit to him, but he should only get better. Normally laying 3.5 on the road would be a concern, but this isn’t a normal road game in Los Angeles.
Prediction: Packers 27, Rams 17
Pick: Packers -3.5
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
- Moneyline: Giants +225; Seahawks -278
- Total: 42
It feels like we very much know who the New York Giants are after four weeks. They are a below-average team (23rd in net EPA, 22nd offensively, 19th defensively) that can win against other bad teams but don’t have the talent or knowledge to win against average or better teams.
The Seattle Seahawks are a bit more of an unknown entering Sunday Night Football. They are fourth in net EPA per game, thanks in large part to being first when it comes to their defensive EPA. However, facing the Broncos, Patriots, and the Tua Tagovailoa-less Dolphins have boosted that number. Seattle’s offense is below average (21st in EPA per game), so the defense needs to continue being good.
My belief is that we see the Seahawks crash back to earth a little against the Detroit Lions. Their defense is good, but more top-10 good than No. 1 overall. Seattle’s offense is probably what we’ve seen so far, below average but not a disaster.
The Seahawks are not a team I want to be laying 6.5 points with, but they should be better than the Giants. Teasing Seattle to -0.5 is my play as of Monday morning.
Prediction: Seahawks 23, Giants 20
Pick: Seahawks -0.5 in a teaser
Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2)
- Moneyline: Cowboys +105; Steelers -125
- Total: 41.5
The Dallas Cowboys were far from convincing in beating the Giants. Against a better opponent, they likely don’t get their second win of the season.
Dallas is 24th in net EPA per game, 18th on offense, and 25th on defense. The Cowboys are simply not a very good team right now, plus they have two major defensive injuries to deal with.
The Pittsburgh Steelers losing to the Colts is typical for the AFC right now, where no one is standing out, and everyone seems able to beat anyone (except the Patriots and Titans, who are really bad). The Steelers are a top-10 unit in terms of defensive EPA per play but cannot rely on their 20th-ranked offense for consistency.
The Steelers have the better numbers and the better coach but the worse quarterback. Taking them at home against the Cowboys is probably the right play here, but Dallas having 10 days of rest is a concern for that pick. The under might be the better play, with Pittsburgh having a good defense and terrible offense.
Prediction: Steelers 20, Cowboys 17
Pick: Under 41.5 points
New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
- Moneyline: Saints +200; Chiefs -245
- Total: 43
While chaos reigns, the Kansas City Chiefs just continue plodding forward. They have been far from good but still have an EPA per game that is seventh in the NFL, thanks to a ninth-ranked offense and 14th-ranked defense.
Neither number there is good, but just having two above-average units is enough right now in this so-far crazy season. The Patrick Mahomes to Xavier Worthy connection is an exciting X-factor as well.
Patrick Mahomes went 30 games without a TD pass over 50 yards.
That just ended with this 54-yard bomb to Xavier Worthy! 🚀 pic.twitter.com/QsQwXF2yqx
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 29, 2024
The New Orleans Saints still lead the NFL in EPA per game, but they have a tremendous boost from rolling two below-average teams in the Bryce Young-led Panthers and the Cowboys. They’ve lost two straight to the Falcons and Eagles and might actually just be an average team when all shakes out.
How do you not take the Chiefs laying less than a touchdown here?
Prediction: Chiefs 24, Saints 17
Pick: Chiefs -5.5