The Philadelphia Eagles and Chicago Bears enter Black Friday tied at 8‑3, but PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor shows the Eagles with a far firmer grip on their postseason path.
In the current baseline sims, Philadelphia wins the NFC East about 96% of the time and makes the playoffs in nearly 98% of runs, while Chicago takes the North in only about 38% of outcomes despite its hot streak. That gap widens or narrows dramatically based on this game’s result, which is why it profiles as one of Week 13’s true leverage spots.
Eagles-Bears Playoff Scenarios and Impact
If the Eagles hold serve at home, their division odds climb above 98% and their chances of securing the NFC’s top seed jump close to 28%, along with modest bumps in Super Bowl appearance and win probability.
Chicago, in that scenario, would see its division odds slide below 30% and its playoff probability dip several percentage points, a reflection of how brutal its remaining schedule is with two dates against Green Bay, plus San Francisco and Detroit still ahead.
Flip the script with a Bears upset, and Chicago’s division odds spike to roughly 48% with playoff odds pushing into the mid‑80s, while Philadelphia’s division probability falls back near 93% and its No. 1‑seed chances take a double‑digit hit.
For both sides, this is less a standalone showcase than a pivot point for the entire NFC bracket. With Green Bay winning on Thanksgiving, the NFC North is truly one of the closest divisions in football. However, PFSN’s proprietary metrics still give the advantage to the Packers.
MORE: Latest PFSN Power Rankings
On the field, Chicago arrives as the team with the steadier recent form. The Bears have won eight of nine and four straight, fueled by a second‑year leap from Caleb Williams, who has 2,568 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, only four interceptions, and a league‑leading five game‑winning drives while cutting his sack rate from four per game in 2024 to 1.5 this season.
They lean on their defense and Williams’ late‑game poise, but this represents his toughest stretch yet: a road test against an Eagles unit that has held three of its last four opponents under 200 net passing yards, followed by a closing run stacked with contenders. Chicago’s overall playoff probability around 59% underscores that, even as a current division leader, it still has more to prove than most of the NFC’s top seeds.
Philadelphia’s story is more volatile. The Eagles had rattled off four straight wins before collapsing against Dallas, wasting a 21‑point lead in a loss that reignited questions about whether this version looks more like the 2023 team that faded down the stretch than last year’s champion.
That black on black 🤌 pic.twitter.com/Gj3rcrblv2
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) November 28, 2025
The offense flashed its ceiling with three consecutive touchdown drives to open that game, then stalled completely, a pattern that puts renewed pressure on Jalen Hurts to rediscover the form he showed before the Week 10 bye when he threw for 505 yards and seven scores across two outings. Getting A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith heavily involved and protecting the ball against an opportunistic Bears defense are central to any “get‑right” script.
Saquon Barkley may be the hinge player. His rushing average has dipped to roughly half of last year’s 2,000‑yard pace, and his production falls off a cliff as games wear on: he averages 5.9 yards per carry in the first quarter but only 1.9 in the fourth, the worst late‑game figure in the league.
Against a Bears team that has specialized in late rallies, Philadelphia cannot afford empty possessions or a fading ground game in the final 15 minutes. If Barkley can sustain early success, he lightens Hurts’ burden, keeps Williams on the sideline, and aligns with the simulation edge the Eagles already enjoy. If not, Chicago’s knack for closing tight contests could tilt both this game and the wider NFC race in a hurry.
Prediction: Bears 21, Eagles 20
