It was a bumpy road to the regular-season finish line for the Philadelphia Eagles. Are the recent numbers enough of a reason to fade them as road favorites against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? We break it down and give out a best bet in our Eagles vs. Buccaneers prediction and betting analysis of this playoff matchup.
Eagles vs. Buccaneers Odds
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- Spread
Eagles -3 - Moneyline
Eagles -150, Buccaneers +130 - Total
44.5
Eagles vs. Buccaneers Prediction
After opening the season with 10 wins in 11 games, the Eagles are limping into the postseason having lost five of their past six. Their lone win during that span was an unconvincing 33-25 win over the six-win New York Giants.
The Buccaneers, on the other hand, closed the regular season with five wins in six games after losing six of seven following the Week 5 bye.
The recent trends of these teams have me not reading much into Philadelphia’s 25-11 win in this matchup back in September. The Eagles controlled the ball in that game (nearly 39 minutes of possession, 34 more plays run), something they’ve largely been unable to do for the past month and a half.
With two volatile teams that have multiple weapons in the passing game, how are we supposed to feel good about forecasting a result?
You’re not — they invented point totals for a reason!
MORE: Dolphins vs. Chiefs Prediction, Odds, and Picks for Wild Card Weekend
I’ve touched on the flaws of both of these defenses, but let me add some detail to that train of thought:
- Both are top four in percentage of opponent yards gained through the air
- Both have a top-five opponent pass rate over expectation
- Both are bottom-10 third-down defenses (top-10 third-down offenses)
- Both have an above-average opponent aDOT
Trends like that are how I land on betting an over (spoiler: I hate betting overs). Those metrics point to a lot of passing and several successful drives. What more could you ask for?
Upon this initial research, I was leaning “over,” but I needed to be sold further. Most of my work trends towards unders over the course of the season, and in all sports, those trends typically ramp up in the playoffs where attention to detail increases.
My big hang-up on betting overs is stunted drives and settling for field goals, fears I don’t have in this game. The Buccaneers are the third-worst red-zone defense in the league while the Eagles allow the fifth-most red-zone trips per game. With star power on both sidelines and defenses that allow plenty of scoring chances, I’m sold.
The Eagles are favored and averaging 29.9 points per game this season in their victories. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are averaging 31 ppg in their wins since Thanksgiving that have not come against the Panthers.
If those trends hold and one of these teams touches 30 points, I feel good about cashing this ticket. Over tickets have cashed 57.5% of the time during the Jalen Hurts era in Philadelphia when the Eagles are favored (third highest), a trend I like to extend through this round!
Eagles vs. Buccaneers Prediction: Over 44 points (-105 at FanDuel)
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