This Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills prediction offers a glimmer of hope for the Dolphins in a game where they likely won’t have much. The Dolphins have never beaten Josh Allen in Buffalo, and Allen will have the elements with him in this one. Snow is almost certain to be a factor, and the Dolphins historically struggle in games that are played at temperatures where snow is even a possibility.
Tua has gone 0-2 in “show me” games over the last two weeks, losing to the top defense in the league against the San Francisco 49ers and then again to peer rival Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers last Sunday night. He gets another chance in primetime to “show me” something. A loss here and the Dolphins may be limping into the playoffs.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction and Odds | Week 15
- Spread: Dolphins +7
- Moneyline: Bills -335
- Over/Under: Over 44
Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction
The Behavior Bets sports betting model is off to an excellent Week 15 start following Thursday Night Football. Five wagers were placed, and we hit on every one of them. For the season, the model is 82-39-5* on bets against the spread, on the moneyline, and in player props. Let’s see if we can keep it going starting with this Miami vs. Buffalo prediction.
*Stats on the Behavior Bets model can be tracked at Pikkit.
There is some value to be had in these Dolphins vs. Bills odds. Don’t misunderstand, the Dolphins have very little chance of upsetting the Bills in this one. There is a chance, however, that they cover a spread that just might be a bit too big.
MORE: NFL Week 15 Predictions
The Dolphins have been in the top five in scoring rate all year. Even over the last two weeks, they have scored at a high rate. For the year, they are scoring .914 points every minute they have the ball. The problem over the last two weeks? They haven’t had the ball. Over the last three games, they have averaged a time of possession of just over 24 minutes. Against the 49ers it was under 20 minutes, and last week it was barely 20 minutes.
During the little time Miami had the ball, the team was able to score points. While the focus has been on Tua and offense, the real issue has been the defense not getting off the field and getting the ball back to Tua. The Miami defense has allowed the opponent to have the ball for nearly 40 minutes of game time two weeks in a row.
Last week against the Chargers, the Dolphins yielded a 50% success rate in third-down conversions. Only one team is converting over 50% this season, and the Dolphins allowed the Chargers to do it last week. When the opponent is converting third downs against you, they stay on the field, and your high-octane offense stays off of it. That has been the recipe to beat the Dolphins over the last two weeks.
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The question is: can the Bills follow the same plan? Usually, ball control involves a potent rushing offense. That is not a thing in Buffalo. Josh Allen, the quarterback of the team, was their leading rusher last week, and that wasn’t the first time. That could be the open crack in the door Miami needs.
At home, Buffalo allows the opponent to have the ball for more than half the game. While they score at a high enough rate (good enough for the top 10), that rate has been decreasing over the last several weeks and, on average, is a full tenth of a point behind the Dolphins.
MORE: Bills vs. Dolphins Prop Bets
The snow should allow for a slowing down of both teams, and, ultimately, Buffalo should get it done. Though with a seven-point spread, I believe that Miami covers and keeps this one close. The model has Miami losing by one to three points in most outcomes. I’m taking the Bills on the moneyline and the Dolphins to cover the seven points, most often losing by only one point.
Personally, I did not bet the over/under. There’s some unpredictability with the Bills’ defense and the weather. But if you’re tailing the model, the over comes in most of the time with a final score totaling 45 points, which provides too thin a margin for me to place a wager.
Dolphins, Bills Prediction
Bills 23, Dolphins 22
