The Miami Dolphins will face the Houston Texans in Week 15. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Dolphins and Texans skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 15 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
C.J. Stroud, QB | HOU
I was as guilty as anyone in assuming that the return of Nico Collins would return C.J. Stroud to elite form.
Wrong, wrong, wrong.
The man has one top-12 finish this season and it came back when the Raiders were a .500 football team (Week 4). Yeah, it’s been a minute. With just one multi-pass-TD game since mid-October and more interceptions (five) than touchdown passes (four) over the past month, there’s plenty of risk we have to account for in this profile.
The Dolphins are an average defense by pressure rate (15th), but they rarely actually get home (29th in sack rate), and that has allowed them to be gashed in consecutive weeks.
- Jordan Love (Week 13): 21-of-28, 274 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions
- Aaron Rodgers (Week 14): 27-of-39, 339 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions
I think Stroud has a good chance to replicate those levels of success. His passer rating when out of the pocket this season is 29.6% higher than a season ago, a strength that figures to come into play given Miami’s defensive profile.
Both QBs in this game are locked inside of my top 10 this week, and I actually prefer Stroud to Tua Tagovailoa in what could be a very fantasy-friendly game where you’re starting all of your pieces.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB | MIA
It’s all happening at the perfect time. Tua Tagovailoa has been a top-10 QB in four straight games (top-five finishes in two of those weeks) and is rounding into the form that we drafted him for this summer.
Last week’s game plan was a concentrated one from the jump and that’s exactly what we want. In the first half against the Jets, Tagovailoa funneled 122 of his 165 passing yards (73.9%) to Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle.
Chef’s kiss.
The Jonnu Smith production came in overtime and with three legitimate pass catchers to compliment the explosive backfield, this is an offense set to peak at the perfect time for us. The Texans allow the fourth-most YAC yards per short completion this season — look for Miami to pick at that scab with bubble screens and, eventually, double moves that open up downfield potential.
I have Tagovailoa ranked as my QB7 — I’m more worried about being too low than too high.
De’Von Achane, RB | MIA
This run with Tua Tagovailoa under center has resulted in De’Von Achane’s name being mentioned in the first half of Round 1 when it comes to projecting 2025 redraft results.
Achane’s mix of versatility and explosion is not only rare, but a perfect fit for this offense. On Sunday, he had six touches on Miami’s first eight plays on his way to a fourth straight top-15 finish at the position. He’s successfully graduated from very good player to matchup-proof asset, which is why I’m not sweating him facing the NFL’s fourth-best run defense.
I’ve bet this game to be the highest scoring on the Sunday slate, and I’m not sure you can get too much exposure to it. Enjoy this Achane run — you’re going to have to pay a premium next season if you want to experience this ride again.
Jaylen Wright, RB | MIA
The Dolphins have gone all in on the De’Von Achane experience, and while that has rendered Jaylen Wright useless, I still think the rookie should remain rostered.
Raheem Mostert isn’t healthy (hip), and that means that the Achane role if vacated for any reason is all Wright’s. There’s no stand-alone value in this profile — he’s strictly a strategic piece to hold at the end of your roster.
Joe Mixon, RB | HOU
- In Week 13, Joe Mixon ran 20 times.
- In Week 13, Joe Mixon ran for a touchdown.
It’s a simple game. Mixon has done both of those things seven times this season, two more than any other player in the NFL this season and the most in an entire season by a Texan this millennium.
C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins are as capable as any duo of taking over a game and stringing together highlight plays. However, by providing balance and versatility, I don’t think it’s hard to label Mixon as the most valuable member of Houston’s offense.
The man has been a top-eight RB in six of his past eight games and is as good as it gets outside of the two backs battling for Offensive Player of the Year honors.
The age curve is a guide, not a gospel. Mixon is a reminder that the only rule to follow blindly in the world of fantasy sports is that no rule is to be blindly followed.
You’re riding Mixon until the wheels fall off. The next two weeks are brutal matchups, but if you ran scared from prohibitive trends, you’re not enjoying a career season from this 28-year-old.
Raheem Mostert, RB | MIA
Raheem Mostert was a DNP last week due to a hip injury and can be left on fantasy waiver wires at this point.
Not only is the veteran back battling a predictable injury, he doesn’t have a role available for him. Jaylen Wright has been more involved lately, and with Tua Tagovailoa finding his form through the air, this is an explosive offense that is likely to continue to prioritize De’Von Achane in a significant way.
Mostert’s 2023 stat line was a thing of beauty, but none of those touchdowns are going to help you down the stretch of this season. I’d rather hold onto a Sean Tucker type to conclude the 2024 season.
Jaylen Waddle, WR | MIA
The 20.9 PPR points from Jaylen Waddle were encouraging, but the result is not what has my attention. He posted 20.3 expected fantasy points on the back of strong volume (12 targets after averaging five targets per game over his previous six contests) and the elite execution of timing routes was promising (nine catches on 10 targets that came less than 15 yards downfield).
This — this is the Waddle we drafted with confidence over the summer, and those who held onto this stock appear positioned to benefit greatly at the perfect time.
I prefer Tyreek Hill this week by a decent amount (I had them ranked within seven spots last week) because I think he has more of a ceiling upside in a matchup against the best defense in terms of sub-15-air-yard completion percentage, but considering that only the Falcons allow touchdown passes at a higher rate than the Texans this season, there’s enough food for both of these stars to eat.
Nico Collins, WR | HOU
Puka Nacua is great, right? We can’t agree on much, but that feels like a pretty universal take at this point.
- Nacua’s last month: 30.7% production over PPR expectation
- Nico Collins since the start of 2023: 31.1% production over PPR expectation
What Nacua has done for a month, Collins has been doing for two years with a quarterback whose best football is ahead of him. Despite missing five games, he leads the Texans in targets, catches, receiving touchdowns, and receiving yards … by 289 yards.
Why do I mention that? Collins is basically Houston’s first and second option in the passing game, and we’ve seen a pair of receivers combine for 30+ PPR points against the Dolphins with some regularity this season:
- DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, Week 3: 30.0 PPR points
- Marvin Harrison and Michael Wilson, Week 8: 37.2 PPR points
- Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, Week 10: 33.8 PPR points
- Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson, Week 14: 44.3 PPR points
Am I suggesting that Collins scores 30 points on Sunday? Of course not, that would be irresponsible. Is he a staple in my DFS lineups coming out of the bye?
You bet.
Tank Dell, WR | HOU
Tank Dell has just two top-30 performances this season (Weeks 6 and 9), coming up well short of expectations after a strong rookie season. I mentioned the productive duos within the Nico Collins write-up, and if you think Miami will devote all of its resources toward him, Dell could snap out of his funk against a defense that is the last remaining unit in the league without a deep interception.
If you’re backing Dell, you’re doing it based on opinion more than anything we’ve seen on the field lately.
- Week 9 at New York Jets: six catches on nine targets
- Week 10 vs. Detroit Lions: five catches on nine targets
- Week 11 at Dallas Cowboys: four catches on seven targets
- Week 12 vs. Tennessee Titans: three catches on five targets
- Week 13 at Jacksonville Jaguars: one catch on four targets
Dell hasn’t earned a red-zone target in three straight games, and that has subtracted from the upside in his overall profile. Jameson Williams (vs. Bills) and Darnell Mooney (at Raiders) are receivers that fill a similar role in their respective offenses but have shown more recent life and, thus, rank higher for me this week.
Tyreek Hill, WR | MIA
Tyreek Hill has touched the ball in the red zone in five straight games, has cleared fantasy expectations by at least 10% in four of those contests, and has seen 23 targets in his past two games.
The Cheetah has scored in four of five games and seems to be operating at full strength, something the Dolphins need in the worst way as they cling to their postseason hopes. The Texans are coming off of their bye, but I’m not sure that if you gave this defense a month of time to prepare for a positive-trending Miami offense it would matter.
Slot usage with Tua Tagovailoa (2024)
- Tyreek Hill: 89 routes, 26 targets, and two TDs
- Jaylen Waddle: 92 routes, 15 targets, and zero TDs
Houston allows the fifth-most yards per slot pass attempt this season (8.6) and the fifth-lowest opponent average depth of target when viewing their pass defense as a whole. In four of five games during this 4-1 run for the Dolphins, Hill has posted a single-digit average depth of target — could this be the week-winning, DFS-slate-shifting Hill performance on the fast track?
I’m not going to give away all of the goods, but I have him and Nico Collins as a chalky DFS stack this week — I’ll round the edges of this lineup with value plays elsewhere.
Dalton Schultz, TE | HOU
It may not seem like much, but Dalton Schultz has been the better of the Dalton tight ends this season, and it hasn’t been close. Houston’s tight end has been a top-15 performer at the position in three of his past four games, a level of production that isn’t going to swing matchups, but can save you from complete disaster.
There is, of course, a risk profile here that you have to consider and that is why he is available in some spots and ranked outside of the top-10. Schultz has but one end-zone target this season (Week 6) and hasn’t reached 50 air yards in a contest since Halloween.
For me, I’m comfortable going in this direction if pushed. Tank Dell is averaging just 47 yards with a 52% catch rate over the past month, leaving the door open for Schultz to be, consistently, C.J. Stroud’s second option in a passing game with top-10 upside.
For me, he’s not much different than a Mark Andrews or Pat Freiermuth in that regard – a profile that ranks as a low-end TE1 in a game that could see plenty of points scored.
Jonnu Smith, TE | MIA
If last week from Jonnu Smith wasn’t the embodiment of the tight end position, I don’t know what is.
The veteran tight end didn’t have a single reception during regulation against the Jets and was a non-factor for over three hours of real-time. After struggling to find any room to operate through four quarters, Smith dominated the overtime period with three catches on eight Miami plays as they kept their playoff hopes alive courtesy of, you guessed it, a 10-yard Smith score.
The veteran tight end has cleared 13 PPR points in four straight games for the first time in his career and has proven capable of earning consistent looks in an offense that has scored 30+ points in three of their past four.
Do I worry that there is a floor to consider here with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle both getting on track last week? I do, but his usage in scoring situations for an underdog with an implied point total of over 20 points is enough for him to crack my top 10 this week and for the remainder of the fantasy season.
