Coming out of their bye week, the Miami Dolphins rode real momentum, having won three of their last four games, including back-to-back victories over the Buffalo Bills and Washington Commanders. Yet despite the surge, those wins have mostly kept their season afloat rather than meaningfully improving their playoff outlook.
What Are the Dolphins’ Playoff Chances?
What doomed Miami was its disastrous start to the season. For weeks, it felt like the Dolphins and the New York Jets were locked in a race to simply win one game. Miami finally picked up its first victory against the Jets after opening 0–3, only to fall into another three-game skid that dropped them to 1–6.
Three wins in the last four games, however, kept their slim postseason hopes alive. Entering the Week 13 matchup against the New Orleans Saints, Miami’s playoff odds sat at just 1.6%, according to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor.
The Dolphins took care of business in Week 13 by defeating the Saints 21-17. They are now firmly in the race to the playoffs and have gained real momentum to make a run.
After their win against the Saints, the Dolphins’ chances of making the postseason surprisingly decreased as they are now at just 1.5%.
With victories in their easier upcoming matchups, they could see these odds skyrocket. However, they must be perfect in those games and in all others. Don’t expect the Dolphins to be in the playoffs, but there is still the tiniest sliver of hope.
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Miami’s remaining schedule is one of the league’s softest, so there is a path, but it leaves no margin for error. The Dolphins would likely need to win out and get help around the conference. That means fans shouldn’t expect a playoff appearance, but the door hasn’t fully closed.
According to The Athletic, several upcoming games elsewhere in the AFC will have an outsized impact on Miami’s chances:
- Week 13 – Titans vs. Jaguars
- Week 14 – Eagles vs. Chargers
- Week 15 – Patriots vs. Bills
- Week 15 – Jets vs. Jaguars
If Tennessee, Philadelphia, New England, and New York manage victories in those matchups, and the Dolphins run the table, Miami’s playoff odds would rise dramatically. Put simply, Dolphins fans should be rooting against the Chargers, Jaguars, Bills, and even the Texans every week. The more results that break Miami’s way, and the more they take care of business themselves, the stronger their postseason outlook becomes.
The biggest hurdle, however, is their finishing stretch. Miami closes the season against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the NFL-best 10–2 New England Patriots. For a team that struggled to put away Washington’s backup offense just last week, a miracle run feels hard to believe.
However, the Dolphins have shown real fight over the past month, and as long as they’re not mathematically eliminated, there remains no reason for the locker room or the fan base to give up.