There aren’t many things better than a prime-time divisional showdown, and that’s exactly what we have on our hands to wrap up the second Sunday of the NFL season. With all eyes on this game, why not explore some same game parlay picks for Dolphins vs. Patriots featuring some fantasy football staples in an effort to build that betting bankroll?
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Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Odds
Patriots +130, Dolphins -155
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles in addition to the same game parlay picks. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with. Answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Trivia Question: Three left-handed QBs have passed for 30,000 career yards in NFL history. Can you name the youngest player on that list?
The home team has won five of the past six meetings in this AFC East rivalry — but trends are meant to be broken!
Let’s start with the Patriots. This offense isn’t good. You can cite all of the Week 1 stats you want, but I think exactly none of it is sustainable. To keep up in this game, they are going to need to do two things:
- Score early
- Run the ball
Well, the trends suggest they struggle to do either, let alone both. Did you know that the Patriots have as many Super Bowl wins without Tom Brady under center as they have first-quarter points scored in a game in which Tua Tagovailoa starts? Zero.
That’s more of a story stat than it is predictive, but this team isn’t a quick-strike type, and in this specific spot, they’ve been unable to set the tone. As for the second point, it’s easy to skim the player page and see that Rhamondre Stevenson averages 4.7 yards per carry for his career.
But does that tell the whole story? Sportsbooks are projecting roughly 22 points for the Patriots in this game, so it’s worth noting that Stevenson’s YPC number is 19.3% lower when the Pats fail to score 29 points than when they do.
This offense couldn’t move the rock on the ground last week (22 carries for 76 yards), and with the pressure this Miami defense brings, I’m not sure that changes in this spot.
Now onto the fun stuff. For the Patriots to pull off the upset, they will need some help — help they aren’t likely to get, given that Tagovailoa has thrown just two interceptions in his past 298 home pass attempts.
Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill led the #Dolphins offensive EXPLOSION in Week 1 🔥@AdamHBeasley and @MattInfante break down where Miami stands in the AFC East landscape on the NEW episode of the #PFN365 Dolphins Podcast!
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 13, 2023
The Pats were a below-average third-down defense a season ago, and that puts Tagovailoa in position to build on his (way too early) MVP résumé. Last season, in the five games he played against such defenses, he impressed in a major way:
- 5-0, +48 point differential
- 119 completions on 166 attempts (71.7%)
- 11 TD passes
- 0 Interceptions
That’ll work. And where are those passes likely to go? Well, the Wise Guys are telling us that the Dolphins are likely to win by one score. We saw that happen six times in 2022, and in those six games, Jaylen Waddle was that dude:
- 105 receiving yards per game
- 78+ yards in all six games
- Three 100-yard performances
- Five touchdowns
You have my numbers and can be as aggressive or conservative as you’d like — I’m not here to spend your money for you. If you have a free bet and you want to go all-in on Waddle, you can juice this up to a nice payday.
Trivia Answer: Mark Brunell
Same Game Parlay: Dolphins 1H (-0.5), Dolphins ATS (-2.5), Waddle 70+ receiving yards, Patriots under 23.5 points
Odds: +525 (DraftKings)