Dolphins vs. Commanders Prediction, Picks, Odds Today: Tua Tagovailoa, Sam Howell Highlight Matchup

Miami looks to feast on another losing team in this Dolphins vs. Commanders matchup. Here's a breakdown of this AFC-NFC contest in Week 13.

The Washington Commanders made news after firing their defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio. Of course, head coach Ron Rivera — who will now be calling plays for the defense — picked an interesting time to take over the defense, with the Miami Dolphins’ high-octane offense coming to town. Let’s take a look and break down this matchup.

Dolphins vs. Commanders Betting Lines, Start Time, and More

All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Spread: Dolphins -9.5
  • Moneyline: Dolphins (-455), Commanders (+350)
  • Over/Under: 49.5
  • Game time: 1:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: FedExField
  • Channel: FOX

Dolphins vs. Commanders Prediction

Before Week 12, the Dolphins held the title as the league’s No. 1 scoring team. Then, the Dallas Cowboys put up 45 points on the Commanders on Thanksgiving and took over that No. 1 spot.

Now, Miami gets to try and return to the top spot on the scoring charts — against the Commanders of all teams.

MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor

Trying to slow down the Dolphins is a large task for any opponent, but when your upcoming opponent is the league’s worst scoring defense and you’ve just fired your defensive coordinator, the task becomes even more challenging.

Miami’s offense isn’t just having a good season, it’s bordering on historic for a couple of reasons. The Dolphins are on pace to become the first team in the Super Bowl era to lead the NFL in passing, while also having a top-three rush offense. The last team to do this was the 1952 Cleveland Browns.

We all know the names at this point. QB Tua Tagovailoa, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Jaylen Waddle, and RB Raheem Mostert. They are all major reasons why the Dolphins average 6.9 yards per play this season, which is on pace to be the second most in the Super Bowl Era (2000 St. Louis Rams, 7.0).

The Commanders are not without talent on the offensive end either. Quarterback Sam Howell — not Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, or Patrick Mahomes — is leading the NFL in passing yards (3,339).

However, he also continues to lead the NFL in times sacked (55). He is on pace to be sacked 78 times, and the NFL record for a season is 76 by David Carr in 2002.

If Washington wants to keep this close, getting the ball to Brian Robinson Jr. would seem to be the best option. Robinson is finally starting to get some carries — 14.8 per game in their last four games — so keep an eye on him Sunday.

The injury situation for these two teams is surprisingly clean, at least in terms of impact players. The Dolphins did have three of their stars on offense — Hill, Mostert, and rookie RB De’Von Achane — all taken off the injury report, so each should be good to go on Sunday.

MORE: NFL Team Over/Under Standings

The biggest injury news for the Commanders is the loss of cornerback Emmanuel Forbes (elbow) for a second straight game.

The Commanders have struggled at home in many areas this season, including a 0-4-1 record against the spread at home.

Taking the over is tempting here, because much like in Week 12, I thought the Commanders’ opponent — in this case, the Cowboys — could get to the over/under number by themselves, and they nearly did.

But there is the possibility of Washington rallying around the changes in the defensive coaching staff. Plus, the last three times Miami played in a game where the over/under was 48 or higher, it went under the total each time.

So I’ll stick with Dolphins this week. Yes, it’s a lot of points, but Miami is 6-1 against the spread as a favorite, and there is a sinking-ship feeling in Washington, D.C., these days.

Best Bet: Dolphins -9.5 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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