Carolina Panthers wide receiver D.J. Moore continues to be touted as a fantasy football breakout candidate. That breakout hasn’t been realized, but many are optimistic about Moore’s fantasy outlook heading into the 2021 season with new quarterback Sam Darnold. Is Moore one of the best-kept secrets in fantasy football at his current ADP?
D.J. Moore’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Moore has generated consecutive seasons with 1,000+ receiving yards. He’s averaged nearly 8.4 targets, 5 receptions, 79 receiving yards, and 15 PPR fantasy points per game over his last 30 active contests. Additionally, Moore has finished as a WR2+ in 53% of his games.
This is impressive, considering he hasn’t received consistent play from his quarterbacks. Moore caught passes from Cam Newton, Kyle Allen, and Will Grier during the 2019 season. Then, in 2020, it was Teddy Bridgewater at the helm of the offense. While Bridgewater was consistent, he proved allergic to throwing the football downfield. He ranked 17th among quarterbacks in pass attempts greater than 20 yards.
This dynamic will change in 2021 with Sam Darnold under center. Darnold averaged 296 passing air yards (indicates how far a pass traveled in the air before it was caught) per game back in 2018 before former Jets head coach Adam Gase torpedoed the franchise.
Darnold is in a great position to rehabilitate his career with Panthers head coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady. The former No. 3 overall pick provides the staff a quarterback with the arm strength to take more risks downfield. However, Carolina’s offensive line could still be a liability after not addressing it during the 2021 NFL Draft.
In addition to division matchups, Moore and the other Carolina skill-position players will benefit from matchups against the NFC East and AFC East. The Panthers will provide Moore with a high number of opportunities to prosper.
How will the targets be distributed in Carolina?
Moore and wide receiver Robby Anderson will continue to operate as Carolina’s top two receivers in 1A and 1B roles. Darnold has a history of providing his slot receiver a steady dose of targets. Moore can be lethal not only as an outside receiver but on the inside as well.
Carolina has 200 available targets entering the 2021 season. A chunk of them stems from Curtis Samuel, who Bridgewater often targeted in the middle of the field. With Samuel now in Washington, Moore could inherit some of those slot targets.
The Panthers acquired David Moore during free agency earlier this year. He’ll be competing with second-round draft pick Terrace Marshall during training camp to be named the Panthers’ No. 3 receiver. Running back Christian McCaffrey will also receive a sizeable target share in 2021.
Last season, Moore and Anderson combined for a 50% target share. Samuel accounted for a 19.3% target share, while McCaffrey saw 16% when he was active.
We project Moore, Anderson, and McCaffrey to have the highest target shares in Carolina. Additionally, it would be surprising to see tight ends Ian Thomas and Dan Arnold surpass 50 combined targets.
D.J. Moore’s fantasy projection
In 15 games last season, Moore caught 66 of 118 targets for 1,193 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. He projects for around 135 targets, 83 receptions, 1,200 receiving yards, and 7 touchdowns this season.
D.J. Moore’s ADP
Moore has a half PPR ADP of 54.5 according to Fleaflicker, with a range from around 47 through to 65. His ADP is slightly higher in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, where Moore has an ADP of 47.57 as the WR20 overall. Moore’s ADP in half PPR formats on Sleeper is 47.7.
Should you draft Moore in 2021?
Moore can be viewed as a mid-range WR2 with immense upside. He’s only finished as a WR1 in 15% of his games since 2018. The Panthers will position Moore to produce at a higher clip in 2021 with Darnold under center.
