Carolina Panthers WR Diontae Johnson spent the first five seasons of his career with the Pittsburgh Steelers before being dealt in March to help add stability to Brad Idzik’s offense. The first-time offensive coordinator comes to Carolina with five years of experience in being involved with NFL passing games and the goal of advancing Bryce Young in a significant way.
Can Johnson establish himself as the primary target earner in this offense and work his way into your weekly fantasy football lineup in the process?
Diontae Johnson’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Adam Thielen was locked into fantasy lineups for a six-week stretch last season, proving that there is some potential for Carolina’s offense to stabilize a pass catcher. If Young progresses the way we’d expect a former top overall pick to, it’s possible (optimistic, but possible) that two receivers can hold value on a consistent basis.
On 3rd & 6, Kenny Pickett finds Diontae Johnson on a go route for 32 yards. The pass was Pickett's first deep completion of the game.
🔹 Completion Probability: 35.9%
🔹 Win Probability Added: +25.0%#TENvsPIT | #HereWeGo pic.twitter.com/39ShAi14fy— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 3, 2023
The concerns with Johnson are pretty straightforward. We know he’s not much of a touchdown-scoring threat (one every 15.6 catches for his career), a flaw that is unlikely to correct itself in joining arguably the least productive offense in the league from 2023 (32nd in yardage and 31st in scoring last season).
After all, it did take Thielen 137 targets to find paydirt four times last season.
For the majority of his time in Pittsburgh, Johnson was an underneath threat who racked up volume to offset his lack of per-catch upside. Last year, however, Johnson saw his role change significantly playing alongside a developing George Pickens.
- 58.6% catch rate (career prior: 61.6%)
- 14.1 yards per catch (career prior: 10.7)
That sort of adjustment in responsibilities might well carry over to Carolina. The system won’t be the same, but with a 34-year-old Thielen who hasn’t had a 40-yard reception since Thanksgiving 2020, it’s reasonable to project the short role to be his and a slightly deeper route tree to be in Johnson’s hands.
That role requires you to bet on significant growth from Young in Year 2, which is something that could certainly happen, but are you comfortable in betting a seventh-round pick on it?
In a limited offense with the Steelers, Johnson had five games with north of 75 receiving yards but also four games with under 20. Pittsburgh’s 2023 version could resemble a ceiling outcome for 2024 Carolina. If that’s the case, you’re walking a fine line in picking Johnson at his current ADP.
Thielen has a leg-up in developing a connection thanks to accounting for 29.4% of the Panthers’ receptions a year ago. In essence, you’re not only betting on Young, but to a degree, you’re betting against Thielen.
There are more moving pieces when it comes to investing in Johnson than I am comfortable with. At roughly the same price, I’d rather gamble on a receiver like DeAndre Hopkins, whose skill set/role appears to be a better fit with his project QB than that of Johnson.
If you want to remove signal-caller risk altogether, why not roll the dice on Xavier Worthy and make a cheap wager on Patrick Mahomes?
Johnson is a fine player, but I want either a strong floor or a reasonable ceiling in the middle rounds. I’m not sure we get either from Johnson in an offense that also has to iron out how rookie Xavier Legette (32nd overall pick) will be used.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Diontae Johnson
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Johnson is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus WR rankings instead.Â
32) Tank Dell, WR | Houston Texans
33) George Pickens, WR | Pittsburgh Steelers
34) Ladd McConkey, WR | Los Angeles Chargers
35) Jayden Reed, WR | Green Bay Packers
36) Chris Godwin, WR | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
37) Diontae Johnson, WR | Carolina Panthers
38) Brian Thomas Jr., WR | Jacksonville Jaguars
39) Hollywood Brown, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
40) DeAndre Hopkins, WR | Tennessee Titans
41) Calvin Ridley, WR | Tennessee Titans
42) Xavier Worthy, WR | Kansas City Chiefs