Diego Pavia has helped make the Vanderbilt Commodores competitive against top-flight SEC opponents, but what is his 2026 NFL Draft outlook? Here’s how Pavia translates to the professional game, and where he might hear his name called next April.
Diego Pavia 2026 NFL Draft Outlook
Pavia grades as a late-round or potential undrafted free agent prospect in the 2026 NFL Draft. He may not be graded as an NFL starter or potential starter, but he can hold down a spot as a backup and eventual spot-starter on an NFL roster.
Entering the 2025 season, Pavia would have been an UDFA prospect beyond the draftable fringe, but his 2025 campaign has been his most efficient season yet as a passer. He’s never been more accurate or more primed to deliver big-time throws, and as a result, he’s on the draft fringe and is a viable late Day 3 selection.
Encased within Pavia’s big-play propensity is a fearlessness that underpins his game. He’s not afraid to test fleeting windows on the boundary as a passer, and as a runner, he’s more than willing to lower his shoulder, fight for extra yardage, and even contribute as a lead blocker for teammates.
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Pavia’s sheer toughness and competitive fire will win over NFL coaches, and he has the athleticism and play strength to be a designed rushing threat as well. More than that, Pavia can be used on read options, fakes, and he can operate out of structure.
The limitations with Pavia ultimately come from his passing ability. While he’s been very efficient thus far in 2025, and while he’s relatively turnover-averse, he can be prone to ill-advised risks and forced throws in high-pressure situations.
Additionally, while Pavia can throw with touch down the field, his arm is average at best, and he’s not very powerfully-built at just 6’0″, 207 pounds. His drive velocity visibly wanes farther down the field, and when he doesn’t have the aid of his base, his throws can float and be undercut. Given that he’ll be a 25-year-old rookie, it seems unlikely he’ll grow enough as a passer to develop into a starter.
Pavia’s utility as a 2026 NFL Draft prospect comes from his toughness, athleticism, and ability to minimize negative plays. Still, his lacking arm strength, middling field vision, and inconsistent processing limit his upside. He has all the desired qualities of a rotational QB and potential backup, but likely won’t field long-term starter reps in the NFL.
Pavia was a two-star recruit out of Volcano Vista High School in Albuquerque, N.M. He fielded little interest straight out of high school. He ultimately began his career at New Mexico Military Institute (NMMI), where he put up impressive numbers and led the team to an NJCAA National Football Championship. Along the way, he caught the interest of FBS schools.
After playing at NMMI in 2020 and 2021, Pavia would transfer to New Mexico State, where he’d have a career-best year in 2023, amassing 2,973 yards, 26 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 928 rushing yards, and 7 additional scores on the ground.
Pavia’s production earned him interest in the transfer portal once again, and this time, it was an SEC team that came calling: Vanderbilt. Pavia joined up with Clark Lea’s squad in 2024 and threw 20 TDs to just 4 INTs, helping the Commodores reach their first bowl game since 2018, and their first bowl victory since 2013.
Wherever Pavia has gone, his teams have won, and that speaks to his ability to lead an offense, both as a playmaker and an emotional presence. His NFL projection is limited, but a competitor like Pavia should find a place on an NFL depth chart.
