Miami Dolphins RB De’Von Achane was explosive as a pass catcher in his rookie season and somehow averaged more yards per carry (7.8) than yards per catch (7.3). Achane’s ability to rip off chunk gains was on display seemingly every week, yet he was trusted with 15+ carries just twice, both coming in 30+ point wins.
So what can fantasy football managers expect in 2024? Will Achane challenge the elite at the position with a full workload, or is his role more likely to remain what it was in 2023?
De’Von Achane’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
It’s hard not to get excited about what we saw from Achane last season and his fit for this Greatest Show of Surf offense. In the first month of his career, Achane had a 55+ yard carry in three straight games, something that doesn’t happen by accident; not to mention, he only had 37 carries across those weeks.
Devon Achane with his 6th career TD on 27 touches
His 2nd today! pic.twitter.com/nj3qCOmjAr
— RosterWatch (@RosterWatch) October 1, 2023
The upside is undeniable. It’s Jamaal Charles-type upside, a running back who averaged 5.4 yards per carry for his career and was as valuable as any asset in our game for three years (2012-14). Do we get to that level in 2024?
I’m not betting on it. Achane’s second-round ADP is reasonable, meaning you’re going to have to pay for that potential. Raheem Mostert’s birth certificate suggests he turned 32 years old in April, but he’s the rare player whose “football age” is lower than his actual number.
- Mostert, career: 674 regular-season carries
- Najee Harris, career: 834 regular-season carries
Harris was a high school senior when Mostert made his NFL debut. I’m not calling Mostert a bell cow, but he sits ahead of Achane on the current depth chart and had a career-best 236 touches last season.
These two backs accounted for 26-27 touches per game in 2023, and that’s a reasonable expectation for 2024 (don’t sleep on Jaylen Wright being drafted in the fourth round).
Maybe the distribution of touches leans Achane’s way, but I have it being close. Anything close to that scenario makes his draft slot of RB8 closer to a ceiling than a realistic expectation for me.
I’d rather take my chances on Travis Etienne Jr. a few picks later, but in most cases, I’m targeting a receiver at this point in the proceedings. If I can land a Tier 1 running back in the first round and a receiver like Michael Pittman Jr. in the second, I’m doing it as opposed to going with a Tier 2 receiver (my top tier is five WRs long) alongside Achane.
If I had to pick a non-Tier 1 RB to post the biggest stat line of 2024, Achane is on the shortlist, if not atop it. He’s nothing short of lethal when in open space, and given the speed on Miami’s roster, there’s no reason to think this coaching staff can’t scheme to his strengths.
I’m generally a conservative drafter in the first handful of rounds. I prefer to take role/volume risks in the middle rounds, which is my plan entering 2024. That’s not to say that you can’t structure a high-floor draft around the selection of Achane in Round 2; it’s just not the path I’m looking to walk down.