Devin Duvernay is entering his third year with the Baltimore Ravens, but what is his fantasy football outlook for the 2022 season? After being a role player for the first two seasons, Duvernay could have the opportunity to take a starring role this season after changes to the Ravens’ receiving group. Let’s examine whether we can expect an increased fantasy value from Duvernay in 2022 and if his current ADP presents a value in fantasy football drafts.
Devin Duvernay’s fantasy outlook for 2022
It’s been an underwhelming start to Duvernay’s time in the NFL. Through the first two seasons, he has 53 receptions for 473 receiving yards and two touchdowns. He has added a further 120 yards on 11 rushing attempts. His total yards from scrimmage of 593 yards on 64 touches has seen him finish outside the top 90 fantasy options at his position in both years.
However, Duvernay has impressed with his performances on special teams. He backed up 578 kick return yards and a touchdown as a rookie with 676 kick return yards in Year 2. The 2021 season also saw him take over as the primary punt returner, with 360 yards on 26 returns. The hope is that those open-field skills will translate to the receiving game if he is asked to take on a bigger role within the offense this year.
The Ravens coaches certainly appear to be impressed with Duvernay’s development. “He is much improved from last season, and that’s what you want to see in a young player,” said Ravens wide receiver coach Tee Martin. Mentally, physically, he’s taken another step, and so, I’m just looking forward to that translating to the field.”
Martin was also quoted as saying that Duvernay has taken his route running and running after the catch to the next level. Both of those are important improvements if Duvernay is going to see more targets than the 73 he has so far in his career.
Duvernay also improved throughout his college career, with his top returns coming in his junior and senior seasons. Entering the same period of his NFL career, he should have the opportunity to make a similar jump with the Ravens.
How the Ravens’ depth chart impacts Devin Duvernay’s fantasy projection for the season
If Duvernay does not make a leap in 2022, it will not be due to a lack of opportunity. The Ravens traded away their lead WR from last season in Marquise Brown. Sammy Watkins also left via free agency, and the two combined for 195 targets in 2021. Those targets are now available for the remainder of the depth chart to compete for.
The current depth chart has Duvernay, Rashod Bateman, James Proche II, Tylan Wallace, and the newly acquired Demarcus Robinson as the main options. Baltimore initially did not add any veteran options in free agency or draft a single player to compete with that group. The logical assumption, therefore, was that the Ravens liked the options they had in-house to fill the holes left by Brown and Watkins. However, Robinson’s addition suggests things have not gone entirely to plan.
Of course, in Baltimore, there are always options at tight end to consider. Mark Andrews, Nick Boyle, and Josh Oliver return, while the Ravens also drafted Charlie Kolar and Isaiah Likely in the fourth round. All of those could see snaps, either in-line or lined up as a receiver.
That complicates the picture when it comes to those vacated targets. Especially when you consider that the Ravens threw the ball more in 2021 than any other season with Jackson under center.
Last season, the Ravens averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game, a significant increase from 25.4 per game in 2020 and 27.5 in 2019. Baltimore’s struggles on defense are a big part of that reason, and if that unit rebounds this season, those pass attempts could dip significantly.
Duvernay’s ADP for 2022
Duvernay’s ADP is currently outside the top 230 in both PPR and non-PPR formats. That price is key when it comes to deciding whether to draft him this year. At that price, there is a lot of upside and relatively little risk. If Duvernay can get to 75 targets, he has the talent to provide value at his current price.
The problem is if that price rises at all. There is every chance that even if Duvernay can become the third pass-catching option in the offense, the role will not necessarily bring fantasy value. In 2021, Bateman was the third receiving option and only saw 68 targets in 12 games. He finished as the WR80 on the season, and that was in a year where the Ravens threw the ball more than 35 times a game.
If Bateman steps up into Brown’s former role (24.7% target share) and Andrews continues to see his target share from last year (25.9%), there are a limited amount of targets remaining in the offense. The backs should be expected to see around 14% of the target share, leaving a 36% target share to be split between the remaining options.
If the Ravens return to throwing the ball 26.5 times a game as they did on average across 2019 and 2020, that’s 162 targets left in the offense. The WR3 and 4 will likely take some of those, as will the other tight ends. Generally, those extra targets have been shared around reasonably, making it hard for a third pass catcher to have significant value.
The third option in the Ravens’ offense did not have more than 50 targets in either 2019 or 2020. Duvernay’s price is so cheap at his current ADP that a speculative pick to find out if he can break the mold could be considered worthwhile. In 12-team leagues, there’s little risk to a speculative selection. In deeper leagues, the risk is greater when it comes to Duvernay.
The talent and game-breaking ability are there, but the opportunity is a major concern. Ultimately, Duvernay is an intriguing gamble in shallower leagues. However, in deeper formats, there are players at a similar price who have clearer paths to fantasy relevance.
